Bulletins and News Discussion from November 25th to December 1st, 2024 - Brothers in Genocide - COTW: Morocco

25% tariffs on ALL goods from Mexico and Canada, and 10% for China, on day 1 of Trump's term

what should I be stockpiling

Here's what will happen in Lebanon in the next 24 hours or so according to what I'm hearing from resistance sources and family on the ground in Beirut:

• Israel have bombed Beirut for possibly the final time
• Hezbollah will bomb Tel Aviv and Haifa in the next hour or so, as a final middle finger and reminder to the Israeli public
• Israeli forces are already retreating from their furthest advance.
• A ceasefire will be announced tonight or tomorrow
• Hezbollah will not withdraw from the South, this is just on paper so that the Israelis can save face
• Gaza will be addressed very soon as well, the agreement is that the PA takes symbolic control of Gaza, but Hamas remains inofficially

This is a major Israeli defeat, there's no other way to look at this. They failed in disarming Hezbollah, failed in establishing a security zone along the border, failed in crippling Hezbollah's capabilities, failed in reaching the Litani River and the act of war failed to return the settlers to the north, only this ceasefire will make it happen. May Allah have mercy on Sayyid Nasrallah and all the martyrs. One thing hurts though despite my happiness about the fact that we have defeated Israel for the 3rd time after 2000 and 2006, it feels like a small betrayal of Sayyid Nasrallah's words about the complete rejection of any separation between the fronts in Gaza and Lebanon. The genocide in Gaza should've been stopped before we sign anything.

Edit: Israel are bombing Dahiya south of Beirut now, expect a final retribution from Hezbollah soon

Things are happening in Pakistan. Huge protests against the military dictatorship, which the US supports. Surprised I haven't seen any mentions here

Pakistan Army has been called under Article 245, direct fire orders issued

https://xcancel.com/MurtazaViews/status/1861183203496669226#m

Washington Post editors upping their racism arms race with the NYT

'Total Surrender': Anger sweeps northern Israel over potential Lebanon ceasefire | The Cradle

Shmuel described the situation of living under the fire of Hezbollah rockets since the war started.

“It's tough. There's no life, we've had no life for a year now. You can't plan anything, can't go anywhere, can't go out freely, not even to do something simple like exercise outside.”

damn maybe if you thought Palestinians were people I would give a shit

You know what would be the funniest thing the Onion could do with Infowars? Just straight-up, high quality reporting. Like, Pentagon Papers type shit.

The situation in Aleppo is an absolute disaster, there's no other away to describe it. I visited Aleppo last year, my aunt lives in Hayy Salah Al Deen near the big football stadium. I don't know if it's out on Twitter yet, but militants have entered her neighbourhood according to her messages in the family group chat and the local facebook groups. Corruption will fucking end the regime at this point, Assad honestly deserves this for not managing to control the corruption in the Army, and also for being an absolute incompetent shithead. Fucking hell man, life fucking sucks with all these disasters every single day. Disastrous situation on all levels, Aleppo was just starting to recover. I want to hit my head and sleep for an entire year to avoid reading this shit every single day.

Liu Liange, former chairman of the Bank of China, was on Tuesday sentenced to death with a two-year reprieve for bribe-taking and illegal issuing of loans. He was found to have accepted bribes worth over 121 million yuan (about $16.8 million), according to a court verdict.

In the past 2 days, Israeli forces have:

–Killed 3 World Central Kitchen aid workers

–Killed a Save The Children staffer

–Killed a Gaza Soup Kitchen chef

–Killed an ICU director

–Attacked & killed hundreds of displaced Palestinians

–Shot a 10-year-old girl

https://x.com/prem_thakker/status/1863362688966926556

still atrocities going on every day in Gaza...

Turkey fucking sucks. They are 100% responsible for the shit that is going on in Syria. Let's not forget they pushed into syrian territory held by kurdish militias (and still gifted us with destroyed Leopards) and directly supports Al Qaeda remnants in Idlib. They are one big imperialist hellhole that acts in coordination with "israel" while being a long standing member of NATO (which grants them protection) to just fuck everyone up. Their shit militias stand idle while Gaza is being massacred too.

May erdogan drown on his own blood.

It is fucking wild watching soft-left types suddenly become wildly pro-assad as they learn how important Syria is as a weapons supply route to Gaza and Syria.

They are becoming more pro-assad than I am and it's because of Palestine. These are people that would've screamed the word tankie if you said you critically supported assad before this war.

So the US plan is to just escalate violence all over the world until somebody punches back and we start another world war? Am I reading the situation right?

The debate perverts voted that Israel is an apartheid regime committing genocide

NEW: The Oxford Union has voted that "Israel is an apartheid state responsible for genocide" by an overwhelming majority of 278 to 59

https://xcancel.com/Imran_posts/status/1862471930676195831#m

https://xcancel.com/BrianJBerletic/status/1862865293284192720

Regarding Syria:

1. Maintain perspective - as bad as the worst case scenario may seem, Syria had previously been almost entirely overrun before Russia's intervention in 2015 including fighting in and around Damascus itself;

2. This is going to shape Russia's calculus regarding Ukraine - clearly any deals made with Western proxies to freeze a conflict toward "peace" will only be used to prepare for more war;

3. Russia/Syria still maintain an advantage in military aviation, taking a heavy toll out on advancing US-backed terrorists - a factor that played heavily in their defeat leading up to the long-standing freeze in the first place;

4. Escalation in Syria is going to stretch Russia, Syria, and Iran, but also the US and its allies;

5. Only time will tell how this plays out, no one should assume one way or the other unless compelling evidence emerges - opensource information only gives part of the picture;

https://xcancel.com/BrianJBerletic/status/1863068727337710071

• be very careful with information coming out. US-backed terrorists use disinformation as a weapon. Believe nothing until it is confirmed;

• That doesn't mean the situation is not dire, but wait for reliable information before drawing conclusions;

• AGAIN - be VERY careful with "opensource" photos/videos which do not provide a full picture of the situation;

• It is very easy to stage a scene and then post it making claims that do not reflect reality, if the Ukrainians do this, surely US-proxies elsewhere can;

• Do not panic. Much of the US' success depends on psychologically overwhelming opponents. Panic aids terrorists and their US sponsors;

• Criticizing the Syrian military for withdrawing is easy to do from a comfortable desk chair. Unless you are on the front holding your part of the line, don't complain about those who are not;

• There are many legitimate reasons why the Syrian army would withdraw from certain areas, just as the Russian army withdrew in 2022 from Kharkov and Kherson, it does not signify the end of the war;

Hexbear today

NBC: President Biden set to issue a pardon of his son Hunter Biden

Aww, I was hoping Trump would get to pardon him

Some quick uneducated observations on the Lebanon ceasefire:

• The Zionists were unable to achieve their military goals. In combination with the Al-Aqsa Flood this has effectively shattered the myth of the invincible high-tech master race. Zionists are incompetent loss-averse cowards. They can be beat.
• The zionists have no inhibitions to terrorism and barring occasional good but largely impotent measures like the ICC warrants the west and their "rules-based international order" is not going to rein their zionist dogs in. Rather they will support them materially, politically and diplomatically.
• Outside of settler society in occupied Palestine, zionism is an elite project. It has no popular support. Even in the imperial core where Islamophobia runs rampant and zionists are portrayed as humanised victims, most normal people sympathise with Palestine. The zionists are getting away with a lot but they have alienated a generation. Going forward they will have a harder time spreading their propaganda.
• The zionists' sense of security has been shattered. The Al-Aqsa Flood might have been stopped and Hezbollah might cease their operations but the sense of impunity is gone. Zionist installations and infrastructure is much more vulnerable to strikes from Iran, Hezbollah or even Yemen than before. Settlers can no longer expect war not to affect them personally.
• The Nazification of settler society combined with the lack of physical security is making settler life a lot less attractive if you're not a howling stormtrooper. Going forward the illegal zionist entity will find it harder to recruit new settlers and settlers who have viable options outside of occupied Palestine might choose them. It is a lot more fun being a a doctor in America than having your house bombed and your kid drafted to get blown up in a Merkava in occupied Palestine.
• Zionism is now perceived as a lot less safe investment by capital than before and they will face long-term economic consequences.
• Hezbollah failed to stop the genocide in Gaza. Without the Lebanese front to distract me the zionazis I am extremely worried about what they are going to do
• There has been some talks about a Gaza ceasefire being in the works. I doubt it. Genocide is baked into the zionist entity and the external pressure to stop it just decreased significantly. It is very hard not to be a doomer about it.

Blinken really is an overlooked little snake. Any other era would have recognized him as a modern Kissinger but for some reason all the credit keeps going to Biden. I guess it’s good for Blinken that he can fly under the radar while continuing to do evil shit around the world.

linky to poast (xcancel broke for me) with full statement (not that of banger, bragging about stopping caravans etc)

https://nitter.poast.org/ishaantharoor/status/1861447614568239551

The US appears to be mass rejecting visa applications from Chinese citizens attempting to attend the Consumer Electronics Show, despite invitations to attend

Hunter's pardon doesn't just cover his gun charges and tax case. It's a blanket pardon covering any crimes he committed between Jan 1 2014 and Dec 1 2024. That period includes when he was on the board of Burisma.

With the IDF on the cusp of annexing the West Bank and half of Gaza this ceasefire seems like a potential disaster for the Palestinian people. I have absolutely no idea how Hezbollah is faring, or what is happening in Lebanon. I don't want all of the brave fighters in the resistance to be killed, but I hope this is the right call

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/43117

'Ukrainian Trained, Turkish Sponsored Syrian Rebels Lead Assault on Aleppo'

fuck France

The first of many "accidents" in Western countries:
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/miscellaneous/pro-palestinian-journalist-found-dead-on-rooftop-in-marseill

French journalist and renowned Middle East expert Marine Vlahovic was found dead at her home in Marseille on Monday, November 27.

Marine Vlahovic was celebrated for her deep expertise on Middle Eastern affairs. Over the years, she worked with prominent media outlets including RTS, Le Soir, RFI, Radio France, and Libération.

Trump threatens Brics with '100%' tariffs if they replace dollar as official currency.

“We demand that these countries pledge not to create a new BRICS currency, nor to support any other currency that replaces the mighty US dollar, otherwise they will suffer 100% tariffs and must say goodbye to sales to the wonderful US economy,” Trump wrote on his social network, Truth Social.

Kinda wild how the NATO-brains are supporting a US-designated terrorist group because Putler bad.

New

I couldn't find a good tweet that summarized everything, but there was a huge Pan-Africanist conference hosted by Niger on November 19-21:
https://xcancel.com/african_stream/status/1862011204950208900

When they say US, they're talking about PSL, who send Eugene Puryear as a representative. There's also Black Alliance for Peace who also send a delegation. Here's their report. The CPC even send a representative to the conference.

Michael Anton, who was in the running to be deputy national security adviser, “withdrew from the running after learning that he would have to work with Sebastian Gorka”

YES MR CHAPO, IT IS I, GORKA! MICHAEL ANTON WILL NOT FIT IN THE BASKET OF MY DIRIGIBLE AND HE IS GONE!

President Joe Biden has decided to grant a presidential pardon to Hunter Biden, his own son, reports US broadcaster NBC News. The decision marks a change in discourse for the president, who has said numerous times that he would not do this, and comes ahead of the sentencing of Hunter, who was convicted of illegal use of weapons. He is also due to be sentenced in another case after pleading guilty to evading federal taxes.

In an official statement, President Joe Biden confirms that he has granted a presidential pardon to Hunter Biden, his own son. Joe Biden attributed the origin of these accusations to attacks by political opponents, who, according to him, used Hunter's case as a tool to attack him personally and his administration. The president also criticized the politicization of the case, citing the collapse of a settlement previously negotiated by the Justice Department as an example of political pressure on the judicial system.

“Hunter was persecuted just because he is my son, and that is wrong,” the president said. He stated that the decision to grant the pardon was made after reflecting on the impact of a process that he considered to be “politically motivated injustice”

A Third Woman Died Under Texas’ Abortion Ban. Doctors Are Avoiding D&Cs and Reaching for Riskier Miscarriage Treatments. Thirty-five-year-old Porsha Ngumezi’s case raises questions about how abortion bans are pressuring doctors to avoid standard care even in straightforward miscarriages. by Lizzie Presser and Kavitha Surana. PROPUBLICA Wrapping his wife in a blanket as she mourned the loss of her pregnancy at 11 weeks, Hope Ngumezi wondered why no obstetrician was coming to see her.

Over the course of six hours on June 11, 2023, Porsha Ngumezi had bled so much in the emergency department at Houston Methodist Sugar Land that she’d needed two transfusions. She was anxious to get home to her young sons, but, according to a nurse’s notes, she was still “passing large clots the size of grapefruit.”

Hope dialed his mother, a former physician, who was unequivocal. “You need a D&C,” she told them, referring to dilation and curettage, a common procedure for first-trimester miscarriages and abortions. If a doctor could remove the remaining tissue from her uterus, the bleeding would end.

But when Dr. Andrew Ryan Davis, the obstetrician on duty, finally arrived, he said it was the hospital’s “routine” to give a drug called misoprostol to help the body pass the tissue, Hope recalled. Hope trusted the doctor. Porsha took the pills, according to records, and the bleeding continued.

Three hours later, her heart stopped.

The 35-year-old’s death was preventable, according to more than a dozen doctors who reviewed a detailed summary of her case for ProPublica. Some said it raises serious questions about how abortion bans are pressuring doctors to diverge from the standard of care and reach for less-effective options that could expose their patients to more risks. Doctors and patients described similar decisions they’ve witnessed across the state.

It was clear Porsha needed an emergency D&C, the medical experts said. She was hemorrhaging and the doctors knew she had a blood-clotting disorder, which put her at greater danger of excessive and prolonged bleeding. “Misoprostol at 11 weeks is not going to work fast enough,” said Dr. Amber Truehart, an OB-GYN at the University of New Mexico Center for Reproductive Health. “The patient will continue to bleed and have a higher risk of going into hemorrhagic shock.” The medical examiner found the cause of death to be hemorrhage.

D&Cs — a staple of maternal health care — can be lifesaving. Doctors insert a straw-like tube into the uterus and gently suction out any remaining pregnancy tissue. Once the uterus is emptied, it can close, usually stopping the bleeding.

But because D&Cs are also used to end pregnancies, the procedure has become tangled up in state legislation that restricts abortions. In Texas, any doctor who violates the strict law risks up to 99 years in prison. Porsha’s is the fifth case ProPublica has reported in which women died after they did not receive a D&C or its second-trimester equivalent, a dilation and evacuation; three of those deaths were in Texas.

ProPublica condensed 200 pages of medical records into a summary of the case in consultation with two maternal-fetal medicine specialists and then reviewed it with more than a dozen experts around the country, including researchers at prestigious universities, OB-GYNs who regularly handle miscarriages, and experts in maternal health.

Texas doctors told ProPublica the law has changed the way their colleagues see the procedure; some no longer consider it a first-line treatment, fearing legal repercussions or dissuaded by the extra legwork required to document the miscarriage and get hospital approval to carry out a D&C. This has occurred, ProPublica found, even in cases like Porsha’s where there isn’t a fetal heartbeat or the circumstances should fall under an exception in the law. Some doctors are transferring those patients to other hospitals, which delays their care, or they’re defaulting to treatments that aren’t the medical standard.

Misoprostol, the medicine given to Porsha, is an effective method to complete low-risk miscarriages but is not recommended when a patient is unstable. The drug is also part of a two-pill regimen for abortions, yet administering it may draw less scrutiny than a D&C because it requires a smaller medical team and because the drug is commonly used to induce labor and treat postpartum hemorrhage. Since 2022, some Texas women who were bleeding heavily while miscarrying have gone public about only receiving medication when they asked for D&Cs. One later passed out in a pool of her own blood.

“Stigma and fear are there for D&Cs in a way that they are not for misoprostol,” said Dr. Alison Goulding, an OB-GYN in Houston. “Doctors assume that a D&C is not standard in Texas anymore, even in cases where it should be recommended. People are afraid: They see D&C as abortion and abortion as illegal.” Hope visits his wife’s gravesite in Pearland, Texas. Credit: Danielle Villasana for ProPublica

Doctors and nurses involved in Porsha’s care did not respond to multiple requests for comment.

Several physicians who reviewed the summary of her case pointed out that Davis’ post-mortem notes did not reflect nurses’ documented concerns about Porsha’s “heavy bleeding.” After Porsha died, Davis wrote instead that the nurses and other providers described the bleeding as “minimal,” though no nurses wrote this in the records. ProPublica tried to ask Davis about this discrepancy. He did not respond to emails, texts or calls.

Houston Methodist officials declined to answer a detailed list of questions about Porsha’s treatment. They did not comment when asked whether Davis’ approach was the hospital’s “routine.” A spokesperson said that “each patient’s care is unique to that individual.”

“All Houston Methodist hospitals follow all state laws,” the spokesperson added, “including the abortion law in place in Texas.” “We Need to See the Doctor”

Hope and his two sons outside their home in Houston Credit: Danielle Villasana for ProPublica

Hope marveled at the energy Porsha had for their two sons, ages 5 and 3. Whenever she wasn’t working, she was chasing them through the house or dancing with them in the living room. As a finance manager at a charter school system, she was in charge of the household budget. As an engineer for an airline, Hope took them on flights around the world — to Chile, Bali, Guam, Singapore, Argentina.

The two had met at Lamar University in Beaumont, Texas. “When Porsha and I began dating,” Hope said, “I already knew I was going to love her.” She was magnetic and driven, going on to earn an MBA, but she was also gentle with him, always protecting his feelings. Both were raised in big families and they wanted to build one of their own.

When he learned Porsha was pregnant again in the spring of 2023, Hope wished for a girl. Porsha found a new OB-GYN who said she could see her after 11 weeks. Ten weeks in, though, Porsha noticed she was spotting. Over the phone, the obstetrician told her to go to the emergency room if it got worse.

To celebrate the end of the school year, Porsha and Hope took their boys to a water park in Austin, and as they headed back, on June 11, Porsha told Hope that the bleeding was heavier. They decided Hope would stay with the boys at home until a relative could take over; Porsha would drive to the emergency room at Houston Methodist Sugar Land, one of seven community hospitals that are part of the Houston Methodist system.

At 6:30 p.m, three hours after Porsha arrived at the hospital, she saw huge clots in the toilet. “Significant bleeding,” the emergency physician wrote. “I’m starting to feel a lot of pain,” Porsha texted Hope. Around 7:30 p.m., she wrote: “She said I might need surgery if I don’t stop bleeding,” referring to the nurse. At 7:50 p.m., after a nurse changed her second diaper in an hour: “Come now.”

Still, the doctor didn’t mention a D&C at this point, records show. Medical experts told ProPublica that this wait-and-see approach has become more common under abortion bans. Unless there is “overt information indicating that the patient is at significant risk,” hospital administrators have told physicians to simply monitor them, said Dr. Robert Carpenter, a maternal-fetal medicine specialist who works in several hospital systems in Houston. Methodist declined to share its miscarriage protocols with ProPublica or explain how it is guiding doctors under the abortion ban.

As Porsha waited for Hope, a radiologist completed an ultrasound and noted that she had “a pregnancy of unknown location.” The scan detected a “sac-like structure” but no fetus or cardiac activity. This report, combined with her symptoms, indicated she was miscarrying.

But the ultrasound record alone was less definitive from a legal perspective, several doctors explained to ProPublica. Since Porsha had not had a prenatal visit, there was no documentation to prove she was 11 weeks along. On paper, this “pregnancy of unknown location” diagnosis could also suggest that she was only a few weeks into a normally developing pregnancy, when cardiac activity wouldn’t be detected. Texas outlaws abortion from the moment of fertilization; a record showing there is no cardiac activity isn’t enough to give physicians cover to intervene, experts said.

Dr. Gabrielle Taper, who recently worked as an OB-GYN resident in Austin, said that she regularly witnessed delays after ultrasound reports like these. “If it’s a pregnancy of unknown location, if we do something to manage it, is that considered an abortion or not?” she said, adding that this was one of the key problems she encountered. After the abortion ban went into effect, she said, “there was much more hesitation about: When can we intervene, do we have enough evidence to say this is a miscarriage, how long are we going to wait, what will we use to feel definitive?”

Hillary would have smashed it

Netanyahu under a barrage of criticism after announcing a ceasefire with Hezbollah

Benjamin Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of the Zionist regime, following the announcement of the ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah, has been the target of sharp criticism from politicians and domestic media.

The absence of a clear tone in the ceasefire regarding the freedom of action of the Zionist regime army against the Lebanese Hezbollah is one of the provisions that have been criticized.

The officials of the Zionist regime had previously claimed that they wanted to include a clause in the ceasefire agreement that would allow the regime's army to act against Hezbollah in case of a ceasefire violation. Channel 12 of the regime's TV says that the current agreement does not contain explicit provisions in this regard.

Yair Lapid, the leader of the opposition to Netanyahu's cabinet, said that the Israeli cabinet was forced to make this agreement after a year of war with Hezbollah.

He said: "The northern communities have been destroyed, the lives of the residents have been destroyed, the army is tired and at the same time you are pushing desertion laws."

This agreement also has critics from within the cabinet, and Itmar Ben-Gvir, the minister of internal security of the regime, has described it as a "historical mistake that failed to achieve promises"

Settlers malding

BBC - Anger and distrust among displaced Israelis at ceasefire deal

But surrender is exactly what Netanyahu is being accused of by his political rivals - and some of his political allies too.

One poll yesterday suggested that more than 80% of Netanyahu’s support base opposed a deal, and residents in the north of Israel - large numbers of whom have been evacuated from their homes - are angry too.

Nationally, the picture was more split, however. One poll showed 37% of Israelis in favour of the ceasefire, 32% against and 31% saying they didn't know.

Rona Valency, evacuated from kibbutz Kfar Giladi on 8 October last year, told me she wanted to go home, and that a ceasefire was needed, but that the idea of Lebanese residents returning to these villages gave her “a real sense of unease and fright”.

From Kfar Giladi there are clear views of the Lebanese village of Odaisseh just across the valley.

“Apart from completely erasing these villages, and having no people there, there is no real physical thing that can make me feel safe. It’s just, you know, hope.”

Israel is continuing to bomb major cities in Lebanon (in Bekaa, Beirut, Tyre) along with the southern villages and border crossings with Syria, while continuing to release "evacuation orders" for residential buildings. The ceasefire is supposed to come into effect within the next two hours, it seems as if Israel is trying to cause maximum destruction before they won't be able to anymore, and for the genocidal entity that means murdering as many people as possible and terrorising civilians.

It's over in Aleppo, local facebook groups are full of reports of SAA units withdrawing beyond the airport and rebel gains are fully consolidated in the western parts. What an unimaginable disaster, I literally can't even process that this happened. We're now at Mosul level disaster, a few more days of this and we're looking at an Afghanistan level disaster. Just pure insanity, this scenario couldn't be imagined by the biggest jihadi optimist in the world.

White House pressing Ukraine to draft 18-year-olds so they have enough troops to battle Russia

"The Chinese system has turned on capitalism. Xi Jinping is not a capitalist. There's a huge crackdown on Chinese businesses to the point that almost every tech founder has left China or wants to leave China because it's too dangerous to run a tech company because the government quite literally may snatch you and you may not come back. They also force you to go to mandatory Marxist training, literally."

https://tankie.tube/w/5GoA6jXfMtcNbAmEMAgL6U

Coca-Cola is an official target of the BDS campaign as of today.

Boris Johnson: 'Mate, let's face it... We're waging a proxy war! We're waging a proxy war but we're not giving our proxies the ability to do the job.

I know we are used to it, but mainstream media sleight of hand always amazes me.

Consider this paragraph from a shitlib newspaper

For this reason, significant North Korean assistance has also been brought in. Beyond the shipments of artillery ammunition and ballistic missiles, it has been proven that North Korean combat troops are already present on the front lines and have even suffered losses. It is clear that the Russians have shifted to an "all-in" strategy, which is further facilitated by the repeated mistakes of the Ukrainian military leadership.

"proven"? Interesting... let's click on the link... global security . org.

But let's read this proof:

South Korea's National Intelligence Service, or NIS, said on Monday it had "specific intelligence" that North Korean forces in Russia had suffered casualties but it did not comment on a media report that 500 North Koreans had been killed in a Ukrainian attack with British missiles.

The U.S. and South Korea have said that North Korean troops had been fighting against Ukrainian forces in Kursk. The U.S. has estimated more than 10,000 North Korean soldiers had been sent to Kursk and they had begun combat operations alongside Russian forces.

Alright so, the extremely unbiased South Korean spies have a very special super secret proof that North Koreans are at the frontline in the Ukraine war... but it's a super secret proof, so they wouldn't show us, we just have to take them at their word. TBF "intelligence" isn't even proof, it could be anything like hearsay from a double agent or a blurry satellite image.
Great. Interesting what lies behind the word "proven".

And now from Newsweek:

North Korean soldiers deployed in Russia have reportedly accessed the unrestricted internet for the first time, with many using this newfound freedom to view pornography, according to Financial Times journalist Gideon Rachman.

"A usually reliable source tells me that the North Korean soldiers who have deployed to Russia have never had unfettered access to the internet before. As a result, they are gorging on pornography." Rachman posted on his X account.

What should I pick?

If HTS and Al-Qaida take over Syria that guarantees another Syrian refugee crisis which guarantees European fascism

It guarantees Syria will lose its UN seat and be open to legal bombing and invasion

It guarantees Turkey will annex all of northern Syria and further tighten its grip over the Kurdish nation

It guarantees a mountain of anti-muslim ammunition in the US....."folks, folks al-qaida is back they took over a whole country, we gotta bomb them"

To add more chaos to this already nightmarish situation in Syria, one of my cousins there has just found out she is pregnant. Most of my cousins there are young, toddlers included and now a baby on the way. What kind of country will that child be born into? What kind of country will my little cousins grow up in? I have nothing but pure hatred for the west and all their allies I'm fucking sick to my stomach, this was my worst fear and it's all coming true, I'll never be able to visit ever again and I just hope they survive. Gaza, Lebanon and now Syria, where the fuck is Iran? It's not bad enough they let Hanyeh be killed in Tehran and let their lack of response play a part in Nasrallah's death, Russia is too busy in Ukraine, this situation is catastrophic and it gets worse by the minute. Aleppo has fallen please God let some fucking miracle happen for the SAA to get their shit together. I don't even know what to say or think anymore I'm gonna be sick.

I think the current Syrian conflict needs to be thought of as a October 7th style attack not of as an advance by an army. The doomerism is spawned by the idea that there is a front line and any point of fighting means all the territory behind it is also occupied.

The situation is not good but the SAA aren't defeated. They were just caught with their pants down. It will take a few days to really figure out how bad things are. Posting updates on where there is fighting and such is fine but all the "Syria has fallen" bullshit is really premature.

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2024/11/washington-post-calls-for-selective-non-prosecution-of-war-crimes.html#more Who is writing these WaPo nonsense "the arrest orders undermine the ICC’s credibility and give credence to accusations of hypocrisy and selective prosecution. The ICC is putting the elected leaders of a democratic country with its own independent judiciary in the same category as dictators and authoritarians who kill with impunity.," Beyond parody

Chad ends a defense cooperation agreement with its former colonial ruler France

Giga Chad ends the neo-colonial "agreement" with the false racialist state of fr*nce.

https://apnews.com/article/chad-france-defense-agreement-4f1fccb3e51199ba6f44f7a68059487a

Edit: The president of Senegal Bassirou Diomaye Faye: 'There will soon be no more French troops in Senegal'

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/le-monde-africa/article/2024/11/29/bassirou-diomaye-faye-there-will-soon-be-no-more-french-troops-in-senegal_6734553_124.html

Iraq's Hashd Shaabi battalions start arriving into Syria for the upcoming large-scale counter attack.

🫡 🫡 🫡

Anglo Propaganda Update:

Utterly ridiculous segment on BBC news where they took a story about supermarket own brand tomato paste that was supposedly made in Italy actually being produced in Xinjiang (which is somewhat bad but I feel like the blame lies completely on the Western distributors who presumably feel they can charge more/create the image of a more luxury product by saying it's made by nonnas in Southern Italy) and spun it as being produced by "coerced labour" (unlike the free and prosperous West where labour isn't coerced at all, of course).

The proof of this? An Uyghur activist who almost certainly works for the US State Department saying that it's all made by slaves accompanied by "secretly recorded footage" of a completely normal looking tomato farm and production line and occasional stock footage of tomatoes being picked, trains and a rusty metal object(?)

Anyway turns out I've been buying the Dengist tomato paste all this time so I guess I Fight For China even without intending to

It looks like one of the reasons Netanyahu went for the Lebanon ceasefire deal now/what he got in exchange is France granting Netanyahu immunity against the ICC arrest warrant.

https://xcancel.com/MairavZ/status/1861726172595277885#m

Seems to be real

https://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/fr/dossiers-pays/israel-territoires-palestiniens/article/israel-cour-penale-internationale-27-11-24

Where the Assad doubters at?

An increasingly desperate sounding Jair Bolsonaro pleads for an amnesty from Lula and Alexandre de Moraes, who he had planned to have assassinated. - Brazilwire

Messages reveal that 2022 Military coup plotters discussed creating a “prisoner of war” camp for opponents, which was referred to as “Auschwitz”.

Bolsonaro's defence claims coup was only planned and not executed, but the Police report clearly shows initial execution, says Pierpaolo Bottini, law professor at USP. "Incompetence does not exclude the commission of the crime, failure is not giving up."

But to BBC News, Bolsonaro is a moderate, he totally wasn't a Neo-Nazi building paramilitary groups and death squads. Is Lula da Silva who is the radical, and is Lula who is totally arming the evil Landless Movement with Tractors and Seeds.

This seems like the most honest assessment of situation on the ground. Rebels in Aleppo but city far from fully taken.

Battles to come, or the SAA either collapses or falls back. I can't tell whether Syria has severe morale issues or not currently the propaganda is too high.

Ex-intel specialist: Syrian 'rebels' ready to normalize with 'Israel'

https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/ex-intel-specialist--syrian--rebels--ready-to-normalize-with

Former Israeli Military Intelligence officer and scholar Lieutenant Colonel Mordechai Kedar, a specialist in Syrian and Arab affairs, said that he is in contact with "rebels" in Syria and that they have shown interest in normalizing relations with the Israeli regime, "only if they control Syria and Lebanon."

Giving the fucking game away.

Serious happenings in Syria today, Syrian Rebels HTS launched an offensive and are right outside Aleppo, within 10km.

‼️ New official BDS target: Coca Cola‼️

https://xcancel.com/puppospraxis/status/1861830119246929944

Imam Khamenei Calls for Netanyahu’s Execution:
https://english.almanar.com.lb/2277596

Just as the ceasefire has come into effect in Lebanon, there is renewed fighting in Syria. A coalition group known as HTS (Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham), made up of ex Al-Nusra (Al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria) groups and members, has started a large scale offensive in Aleppo against Syrian government held positions. The Russian and Syrian air forces are bombing HTS held positions heavily, along with artillery and drone bombardment by the Syrian army.

Twitter source

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As for Israel working with Al Nusra and it's affiliates, it has happened before, and it appears to be happening again.

Former Mossad director, Efraim Halevy, defends Israeli medical assistance to Al Nusra Front fighters, Al Jazeera, 31 May 2016

Efraim Halevy, former director of Israel’s national intelligence agency, Mossad, speaks with UpFront:

• Believes there will be no “blowback” against Israel for “getting into bed with a group like Al Nusra Front.”
• Points out that Israel “was not specifically targeted by Al Qaeda”
• Says he would deny similar treatment to Hezbollah fighters, because “we have a different account with Hezbollah”
• Says “the immediate consideration is humane” but admits assistance to Al Nusra Front fighters could also be “tactical”

The tactical assistance appears to have arrived.

And how do we know this? Thanks to the actions of a Syrian resistance fighter who documented it all on social media, after coming out prison after 27 years.

The curious case of Israel, al-Nusra and ‘Facebook Spy’, Al Jazeera, 27 April 2015

I am making a prediction now, once Ukraine loses the war there'll be a flood of opinion pieces and articles about how Ukraine lost the war not because western weapons weren't as effective as thought but because the nation is just too corrupt to win against the clearly inferior russian and even worse soviet weaponry. We'll see articles and opinion pieces about how corruption led to weapons not being delivered and being sold. Or how mobilization efforts were undercut by corruption and so ukraine never had enough people to actually fight, how the ukranian military was corrupt and so it's commanders inept etc. etc.

The west gets to save face and also keep Ukraine out of their 'garden'.

so israel was ruthlessly bombing Beirut as Satanyahu was signing the ceasefire deal?

if this deal can keep Lebanese people safe, then i can breathe sigh of relief, but it's hard not to be a doomer about it, knowing how hard the Lebanese resistance fought and how much israel took from the Lebanese people. Watching the Resistance fight against the genocidal monstrosity called israel was one of a few places where I could find hope and optimism. The sacrifices they were willing to make made it seem like the fight was worth it. Everything else reeks.

55 days, 63 Merkavas

Canada Post has been sending layoff notices to striking workers

Is it illegal? Ostensibly!

Will anyone face consequences from this? Only the striking workers!

Will the government break the strike and pass back to work legislation? Almost certainly!

The Treats Must Flow

I didn’t have Philadelphia potentially losing its drinking water in the coming years on my radar

All Ohio students (public and private schools, k-12 and college) must use the bathroom corresponding to their birth sex.

https://www.newsweek.com/ohio-transgender-bathroom-bill-mike-dewine-1992542

I dread to think what the Ukrainian daily casualty numbers are right now.

Looks like a lot of big collapsing cauldrons with dangerously delayed retreats.

The situation in Syria is really bad. Suriyakmaps, a very reliable war mapper that relies only on geolocated evidence, has called the collapse of Syrian Army positions in the west of Aleppo. Videos and photographs are emerging of HTS fighters in the governors mansion and police headquarters in Aleppo, further inside the city, falling back or dispersing into the city afterwards. A third front has been opened in Idlib, where Russian aviation allegedly cannot operate freely due to the presence of Surface to Air Missiles, though this is not confirmed. It's looking bleak, Aleppo could fall to HTS within the next few days. If they take the Citadel of Aleppo to the northeast, it's over.

Suriyakmaps latest update

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New videos have emerged of HTS fighters on the outskirts of the Citadel, if not at the Citadel itself. Covert insurgents behind the front lines that have blended into the city. Rooting these HTS insurgents out with counterinsurgency operations is going to be very difficult. That is, if there's even time for counterinsurgency operations before the entire city falls.

Exit polls for the Irish election suggest a three way tie between Sinn Féin, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, the three biggest parties, all at around 20%. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have been in a coalition for the past five years because they're basically identical even though they pretend to hate each other, and will likely form a other government. Greens or Labour will have to make up the rest of the government to get them up to 50% of seats.

FF and FG are the neoliberal parties that have been actively robbing Ireland for the past 100 years. They're extremely and openly corrupt. And they're gonna win again, because no one in this country wants change or cares about other people. Fucking hell I hate it here. Nobody actually gives a shit about anything getting better, they just want more money for themselves.

I'm starting to think checking back on this thread regularly is a bad idea.

Thread on what Hezbollah forced the Zionist entity to insert into the ceasefire agreement:
https://xcancel.com/les_politiques/status/1861751827605123402

On the ceasefire agreement, "Hezbollah has prevented the formation of a 'monitoring committee' chaired by the US & France. This was a sticking point. It was changed to a an intern'l committee to be established later to oversee the enforcement of Hezbollah's commitments. 3/

"Hezbollah changed the ambiguous word 'South' to South Litany, removed the name of Resolution 1559, and prevented listing the names of Palestinian groups active in Lebanon." 4/

Hezbollah insisted that "Lebanese refugees should return to their "homes and lands" instead of their "homeland" in the draft. 5/

This seems like it's going to be an incredibly difficult winter. All the news has been bad recently and it looks like it's only going to get worse.

How is everyone feeling about the short term future? Because it seems like bad things are coming everywhere

IOF claims the ceasefire in Lebanon has been violated

From Reuters:

Diplomacy over Lebanon has focused on restoring a ceasefire based on U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the last major war between Hezbollah and Israel in 2006.
It requires Hezbollah to pull its fighters back around 30 km (20 miles) from the Israeli border, behind the Litani River, and the regular Lebanese army to enter the frontier region.
Israel and Hezbollah have accused each other of failing to implement it in the past; Israel says a new ceasefire must allow it to strike any Hezbollah fighters or weapons that remain south of the river.

Not hard to see where this goes - ceasefire for some months, Israel continues airstrikes claiming they are not violating the terms of the ceasefire, Hezbollah retaliates, Israel invades again once Trump is president, no Hezbollah troops in the south means Israel can actually advance. Unless Hezbollah is much worse off than what I would guess, it's hard to see what they get out of this.

maybe claudia got that lula skills:

Context from 2018: Syria's Idlib spared attack, Turkey to send in more troops

Turkey will send more troops into Syria’s Idlib province after striking a deal with Russia that has averted a government offensive and delighted rebels who said it kept the area out of President Bashar al-Assad’s hands.

Putin got fucked over again by a NATO-backed "peace deal"

#Al-Shahba canton is witnessing massacres against Kurdish civilians forcibly displaced from Afrin by Syrian terrorists affiliated with the Turkish occupation, random killings, and cutting off communications and the internet. No voice reaches the world about the tragedies of children and innocents. 7 civilians were killed on flimsy charges. Humanity is crying out for help!

I am getting impatient for show trials of American rulers

Pls practice discipline in what/how you share information. Verify. Provide sources. Do not take rando telegram channels as gospel.

Moroccan here. Just want to add that the first years of Mohammed 6 were marked by great optimism, naming him "the king of the poor". This optimism was later on shattered, and a new form of oppression took place. While Hassan 2 was a dictator who sent people who opposed him to a secret prison, and people just vanishing like for publicly saying the wrong things like Mehdi Ben Barka, the opposition was fierce. There was a notable coup attempt in 1972. The reign of Mohammed 6 presents a friendly face but is marked by a shift to business, the king owns many major businesses in the country, making competition nearly impossible. The king gets to extract all the riches while pretending to be this meek gentle king, and the prime ministers are changed at will and they get to be the focus of all the discontent people have. Speaking against the king is still a political taboo that you never hear publicly.

Khan Sheikhoun has fallen, we're officially in the Afghanistan stage now. This is total collapse. Rebels are two empty villages from entering Hama

🛑|🇸🇾 Syria’s SANA agency: Individuals linked to terrorist groups who were responsible for filming fake scenes in several neighborhoods of Aleppo to give the impression that terrorist groups had taken control of those areas were apprehended.

from https://xcancel.com/AryJeay/status/1862623124056945040

The Lie of Singapore

I have written a lot about Singapore and Malaysia here. Posts, here and there, that showcase aspects of their incestuous relationship.

But I never really stated explicitly, or more clearly debunk, the pernicious state narratives that both states and their comprador classes vehemently adhere to.

So I am going to rectify that right now.

Note: communal and racial are synonyms in Singapore and Malaysian politics. See here for elaboration.

General Background

The region was known as Malaya and Northern Borneo, back in the 19th and first half of the 20th century, consisting of the Malay Peninsula and their surrounding islands and the British controlled part of Borneo, but explicitly did not include the Riau Islands, were under Dutch administration or the Southern Thailand provinces, which were seceded to the Thai Monarchy in 1909, even though both regions had Malay majorities.

This region was sorted in more or less 3 distinct types of administrations, the federated and unfederated Malay Sultanates, in addition to the the protectorate of Brunei, in which over time the role of the Sultans diminished as the power of the colonial British advisers grew. The second was the Strait Settlements, British crown colonies which British laissez-faire Capitalism was allowed to flourish, especially in goods that the British were particularly good at trading (smuggling), opium. The colonies in Borneo, Sarawak and North Borneo Chartered Company (Sabah) was land “given” by the British protectorate Brunei to the British. Unlike in Malaya, Sarawak and North Borneo was also under direct control of the British, and Sarawak in particular was under the rule of the “White Rajah” (White King). Missionary influence especially was prevalent here, which resulted in more extensive use of English and Christianity being the majority in the state.

The Strait Settlements were crown colonies located in strategic positions within the Straits of Malacca, and were concentrated in the 3 main ports of Melaka, Penang (now officially called Pulau Pinang) and Singapore. These ports were fully controlled by the British and had appointed governors. The infamous one being Stamford Raffles, so-called founder of Singapore.

Nearing independence in the 1940s and 1950s. Guerrilla warfare was being waged by the Communist Party of Malaya, with membership within their mass organisations nearing 50% of the entire workforce. Furthermore there were unrest in others parts of the Malayan economy. Indian labourers in rubber plantations, Chinese miners in Tin mines, the Malay peasantry facing accumulation by dispossession and oppression by the Chinese capitalists, local Malay landlords, and the general comprador Malay Sultanates and their British advisors.

Independence was the name of the game, with waves of unrest and decolonization swept across East Asia at that time. In China, in Korea, in the Philippines, in Indonesia and in Viet Nam.

Malaya was no exception.

The Official Narrative™️

We gained independence in 1957 - under the "good graces" of the British, who simply let us free after of course, negotiations by the Malay sultans themselves. One infamous speech in which the Yang di-Pertuan Agong (the elected King) screamed the word "Merdeka!" (independence) 7 times and centuries of colonial exploitation just vanishes! At this point, this independence was only for the Malay Peninsula sultanates, and so logically lead to the official name of the federation of Malaya.

After a decades spanning communist guerilla warfare, the so-called 'insurgency', and British inability to maintain and sustain their prized colony in Southeast Asia, and fear of the so-called domino effect if communists and anti-colonial forces were to win, they came up with the Malaysia Agreement. An opaque document that mainly involved negotiations and consultations with the comprador elite and their masters. It stipulated that the British colonies of Sarawak, the North Borneo Chartered Company (Sabah), Malaya and Singapore were to merge into Malaysia.

This was to the dismay of the Malays, the British-educated elites in the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) proclaimed, because the indigenous were a minority in their own native land. The Malays, they proclaim, do not want to include Chinese majority Singapore in the federation. Even including Sarawak was contentious, because Sarawak was majority Christian.

Singapore’s British educated Chinese elite, influenced by the British Labour Party and the Fabian society, formed the People’s Action Party. There was a more radical sect within the party that called for the creation of a unified proletarian state. The party, was in theory, on-board with unification.

The various state actors signed the agreement in 1963 to form a unified and federated Malaysia.

However, the official narratives warns us, racial tensions were simmering. The Malays were not giving equal voting representation the Chinese majority in Singapore. The Malays, were also afraid of a secret Chinese communist takeover, precipitated itself by the super-liberal People’s Action Party!

The Racialised Class Realities laid bare

Secret negotiations were taking place between the reactionary comprador elements of the PAP and UMNO, even before the signing of the 1963 Malaysia Agreement, of an eventual secession of Singapore.

The elites in Singapore publicly welcomed the idea of unification, and so the infamous clip of Lee Kuan Yew crying after Singapore being “kicked” from federation was widespread. Little did others know until decades later that it was merely a facade, when he was the head of the clique that lead the negotiations for separation.

It would be good for Singapore because they would remain in a singular currency market with the underdeveloped parts of Malaya and North Borneo, without dealing with rising labour militancy. Think the Eurozone with the European periphery. As I mentioned before, Singapore's departure would secure the politial hegemony of UMNO.

"When the Tunku (the first Prime Minister of Malaysia) first informed Keng Swee in December last year (1964) of his desire to have Singapore "hive off" from Malaya, it generated considerable excitement amongst us first because this showed their realisation that we cannot be fixed in Malaysia and the supremacy of Malay communalists assured forever. Next, it gave us an escape, if there is to be trouble in Malaya with communal clashes over language and other issues. We might in such a rearrangement insulate ourselves from communal conflict which is building up in Malaya.

"[The] greatest attraction of this rearrangement is our hope to get the benefits of all worlds - the common market, political stability with economic expansion, and autonomy in Singapore without interference from KL. The picture of a prosperous and flourishing Singapore doing better than the rest of Malaysia is most attractive."

And here is where the whole story crumbles, from the words of Singapore's infamous and first Prime Minister himself, Lee Kuan Yew.

The fake stories about our so-called independence laid bare for what it was and continues to be. Lies, regurgitated by compradors and foreign Capital.

Epilogue

This brief exposition of independence was of course simplified and did not include many of the nuances that made up the whole story. From the inclusion of North Borneo, Sarawak and Brunei, disagreements between the various Sultans, the specific amendments to accommodate Singapore's brief inclusion in the federation, the voting boycotts, racial riots and the Northern Borneo Communist uprisings, and the many grassroots shifts that had occurred by the time of independence and the couples of decades after. Many had to be foresaken for brevity.

History does not spare the sympathy to give us breaks.

In my previous characterizations of Singapore, I tried to convey this Europhilia that was/is heavily present in the elite's unsophisticated and underdeveloped minds.

Just read their own words -

Next, it gave us an escape, if there is to be trouble in Malaya with communal clashes over language and other issues

Who has not had the displeasure of interacting with a white European who has definitely exclaimed that they are not racist, while actively benefitting, supporting and instigating racism? How are these words any different?

The guardians of so-called "Asian values", while in actuality mirror their European counterparts in crystal clear clarity. This is recognised by many of the European chauvinists, who often emphasize that the Orientals can only be prosperous if they imitate the West, with Singapore being their prime example.

Singapore's role in the world economy is like that of South Korea, Rwanda, United Arab Emirates, or Panama. It is, and continues to be, a colonial outpost of US hegemony. Treat it as so.

Learn to read through the libspeak that a lot of the Singaporean and Malaysian elites like to shroud themselves in.

It sounds like Hezbollah had a military victory but strategic loss. Is this correct? I haven’t been keeping up with the ceasefire news.

So, aside from general

I guess in the west we only have individual bds and union-side divestment to work for, with a side of pal action (i didn't know keysight

First ukrainian presidential polling since the start of 2022

https://www.intellinews.com/zaluzhnyi-leads-ukrainian-presidential-poll-355220/

Zaluzhnyi garnered 27% of support when respondents were asked whom they would vote for if an election were held next Sunday (November 24). Current President Volodymyr Zelenskiy followed with 16%, while former President Petro Poroshenko secured 7%. Other notable figures included Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, with 6%, and ex-Speaker of Parliament Dmytro Razumkov with 4%.

nazis bombing beirut again

(is anyone else xcancel broke, or is it some vpn thingy?)

Hear trump doing that 25% tariff on mexico. Don't they exchange half a trillion in goods? No way this goes through right?

::: spoiler To add to the pile of takes being posted about this ceasefire, here is a quick writeup Derek Davidson from Foreign Exchanges/probably the most frequent Chapo guest sent out tonight. I am just posting this because it gets delivered to my inbox:

While I am technically on vacation I did want to send a brief update on the ceasefire that Joe Biden announced earlier today between Israel and Hezbollah. Momentum had been building toward this for several days now, despite outward appearances as the Israelis maintained and arguably intensified their bombing campaign. Indeed, they continued bombarding Lebanon throughout the day on Tuesday, while Hezbollah kept up its rocket attacks on Israel, everybody getting in a few last licks before the ceasefire goes into effect at 4 AM Wednesday local time. If all goes well this will mark the end of a conflict that started shortly after Hamas’s October 7 2023 attack in southern Israel, when Hezbollah began firing rockets into northern Israel. That conflict has killed nearly 3800 people in Lebanon and nearly 130 in Israel, while displacing upwards of 1.2 million in Lebanon and some 46,000 in Israel.

The deal in its most basic form opens a 60 day window, during which Hezbollah and Israel will attempt to implement the terms of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Lebanon War. That means Hezbollah will withdraw its military forces, or at least its large weapons that are capable of striking Israel, north of the Litani River or about 30-ish (give or take) kilometers from the Israeli border. The Israelis in turn will withdraw from southern Lebanon. If those two conditions are met then the 60 day window will turn into a full-fledged ceasefire—at least until the next time Israel and Hezbollah go to war. Israel’s security cabinet approved the deal on Tuesday prior to Biden’s announcement. The Lebanese government had already signaled its approval, which came along with Hezbollah’s indirect approval.

There are mechanisms in the deal that aim to ensure Hezbollah’s compliance. The most immediate of those involves the Lebanese military, such as it is. As the Israeli military (IDF) and Hezbollah withdraw, Lebanese forces will deploy to the area between the Litani and the Israeli border where they will function in concert with the United Nations peacekeeping force (UNIFIL) to police the ceasefire. This is where the United States and France enter the picture. They’re apparently committed to supporting the Lebanese military and improving its capabilities so that it’s able to fulfill this mission, as well as to unspecified measures to improve the wrecked Lebanese economy.

The US and French governments will also join the Israeli and Lebanese governments, and UNIFIL, in overseeing the deal. This is a significant development considering that as recently as Sunday the Israeli government was refusing to have anything to do with Paris because Emmanuel Macron had recognized the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The Lebanese government had conversely insisted on French participation, presumably reasoning that the French government might actually try to constrain future Israeli military action where the United States is barely even a rubber stamp anymore on that front. That’s important because the main thing the overseers will be doing is determining whether/when the Israelis are entitled to resume their military campaign in Lebanon.

By all accounts, Israeli officials wanted it written into the deal that they retain the right to use Lebanon as a free-fire zone if they decide that Hezbollah isn’t meeting its obligations. That is not, as far as I know, explicitly written into the agreement Biden announced on Tuesday, surely because it was unacceptable to Hezbollah and the Lebanese government. But the Israelis reportedly have assurances from Washington that the US will support their reentry into Lebanon should it come to that.

Based on what’s been reported so far I think we have to conclude that the Israelis have gotten much of what they wanted out of this conflict. In the main they got Hezbollah to break its “Axis of Resistance” ties to Hamas and agree to a ceasefire that has nothing to do with Gaza. That’s meaningful both in the near term, as it means in theory that the Israeli government can begin moving displaced people back into northern Israel without having to interrupt its genocidal campaign, and in the long term, if it permanently fractures the relationship between those two groups. Then there’s the damage Hezbollah has taken. Over the course of the past 13 months the Israelis were able to exploit apparently gaping holes in the internal security of Hezbollah or one of its allies to kill several of its senior leaders, including former Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, along with a larger number of mid-level officials. Those losses will take time to overcome.

That said, the Israelis haven’t gotten everything. For all the hits it’s taken Hezbollah is still standing and still seemed to be putting up a fairly robust resistance to IDF incursions in southern Lebanon—robust enough that it may have made Israeli leaders more amenable to a ceasefire. It’s also still a major force in Lebanese politics, and if we take its civilian elements into account the damage it’s suffered over the past 13 months is still significant but not debilitating. As I noted earlier the Israelis didn’t get the explicit permission they wanted to continue operating in Lebanon with impunity, though that’s more a technical setback than a real one.

This deal is hours old and as I write this it only came into effect about 30 minutes ago so I think to say much more would be to delve fully into speculation, and to be completely frank I think I’d rather go back to being on vacation. One bit of speculation that I will offer is the possibility that this deal isn’t so much going to end the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah as shift the locus of that fighting into Syria. The IDF has never been reluctant to attack Hezbollah targets in Syria but it’s ratcheted up the frequency and intensity of such attacks in recent weeks, and it may be worth noting that after Biden’s announcement it bombed three crossings along the Lebanese-Syrian border in northern Lebanon. We’ve also seen reports of late about IDF construction projects in the occupied Golan that may be encroaching deeper into Syrian territory.

Bashar al-Assad’s government has been scrupulous about staying out of this conflict and maybe he’s got some sort of private understanding with the Israelis, but I still think this is something to watch. I’m not saying that the Israelis will immediately shift their operations to Syria in anything like the intensity we’ve seen in Lebanon, but over time they may continue to ramp things up on that front.

Bit idea: brace should try and getting a talking spot on the TV to comment on the situation in Syria, by selling himself as an expert for having fought against ISIS in Syria

Very suspicious timing with events in Syria today

Protest arrests after seven detained over links to Kurdish rebel group PKK

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1lg37mrgd1o

According to Iraq’s Al-Nujaba TV, quoting a senior security official in Damascus, CONFIRMED the death of Abu Muhammad Jolani.

lmaoo, HTS leader scum already got eviscerated by a Russian airstrike

DPRK are massively increasing their missile production

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/satellite-images-suggest-north-korea-expanding-missile-plant-researchers-say-2024-11-25/

The new assembly building is about 60 to 70 percent the size of the previous building used to assemble missiles.

Reuters are focusing this news on "increasing supply to Russia" but I personally think it should be viewed as dprk carrying out productive preparations for war.

BIG escalaTION in the Georgian elections situation.

The EU parliament passed a resolution to:

A re-run under international supervision

A transparent investigation into violations

International refusal to recognize results

In response the government has decided to close down the matter of opening negotiations with the EU until 2028 and they're also refusing budget grants from the EU until 2028

People are protesting at the parliament, folow Sopo Japaridze for more updates.

Incredibly funny that the EU is going to "lose" georgia because of its own intransigence

In case anyone need clarification re: who the “rebels” are fighting for

EDIT: this could be the flag for the Syrian Baathist party, they have the same color scheme

https://t.me/PalestineResistX/187

I don’t think the following is actually “true”, just describing it this way to get a point across:

It feels like, maybe two weeks ago, for the first time in years those involved at the absolute heights of imperialist power all got together in a smoky room and planned out their next moves. NATO has ratcheted up support for Ukraine in incredibly dangerous ways (for the first time in over 2.5 I’m starting to get genuinely concerned NATO will risk all out war with Russia). What’s going on in Syria has very obvious NATO and Israel coordination. Then there’s the ceasefire - which I am not a doomer about, but I have also been assuming there must be some sort of unwritten agreement to wind down the fighting in Gaza.

None of this is dooming, just that this all feels coordinated and very significant.

The empire strikes back.

Looks like Assad's lost Aleppo. Video of HTS forces in the city center seems pretty legit to me.

A counter offensive will happen but Aleppo is going to be fucked and it will take a long ass time to get them out.

Biden pardoned Hunter

Is there a comprehensive post anywhere with assad chemical weapons debunking or something? It's suddenly relevant and even if I show things like OPCW's report the libs respond with "that's just one attack".

I'm sorry for the electoralism, but the Progressive Conservatives (don't laugh) are winning a majority in Nova Scotia again, and it wasn't even close. Last count I saw had the Tories winning 41 seats, the NDP 9, and the Liberals 4. Truly wild for the NDP to be the closest thing to an opposition. Liberals really fell off.

Brazil Donates Cuba 10 Tons of Aid After Two Hurricanes Passage - Telesur English

Good on Lula for doing this. Also, surprised at Japan giving Cuba aid, but the Japanese Goverment and people have mostly been on friendly terms with Latin America.

My guess - Iran is unwilling to continue escalation when they lack nukes and Trump is coming in to power, and Hzb leadership is unwilling to fight on without Iranian backing.