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Ukraine-Russia Megathread 8
Ukraine-Russia Megathread 8
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1.1K comments
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Trying to do some self crit, realizing I've been kind of "rooting" for Russia. Despite thinking the invasion wouldn't come (and dealing with people who can't point to Russia, let alone Ukraine, on a map saying 'of course they were!' [Healthy media diet there] ) and then disapproving of it since, found myself hoping they take their goals quickly.
Part is hoping for low casualties, pivoting to a multi polar world, Russia having legitimate grievances and finally 'snapping' after NATO provocations. Another is the too-online-brained hating the media, mainstream and social, building up a Ukraine that is not emblematic of anything worth supporting beyond sovereignty, and of course that it all plays into the hands of a reactionary project across the west that'll now find further bolstering.
However, Russia is obviously not emblematic of anything worth supporting beyond being a counter weight to western hegemony, which is good, but they're not the USSR.
So that said, while it's extremely unlikely, if Russia loses this, that's also a good outcome in that it's own project is blunted and hopefully Russians, following in the path of their ancestors when their country loses, force change. Obviously hoping for no nuclear option at any point for Putin. NATO and other like organizations are going to ramp up regardless, a Russian loss may make that less potent. As well, where they're fighting now may at least take out a good percentage of Azov and their supporters.
Idk, I don't think it's likely, and still really just hoping it ends quickly. Russian victory isn't in leftist favor either, though it'll result in fascist deaths and smug posters eating crow. But damn. What shit living in interesting times is.
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I live in russia and I'm low-key hoping for russia to lose this. Putin is a lunatic for starting this invasion and I can't imagine anything good coming out of it
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Russia isn't going to lose, but it could be a pyrrhic victory. The absolute worst case for Putin would be that the oligarchs lose so much money that they stage a coup. Whoever would replace him wouldn't be good though :/
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Either a neolib who rolls over for NATO, or a open fascist.
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Probably a bit in between. The Russian bourgeoisie is a National Bourgeoisie and is entirely new money. They would probably play ball with NATO but not be complete pawns and would still favor protectionism over free trade since they are mostly industrial capitalists. The things they have that the world wants is natural resources, industrial products etc. Not like the western bourgeoisie whose main commodity is investment capital itself. They'd probably pick someone that's basically exactly like Putin except softer on foreign relations.
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good analysis. Putin's entire pitch to the nation(and to oligarchs) was "stability". And this ain't it
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True. I'm sure he promised them some other goodies like contracts for rebuilding etc and also threats, but they're probably going to be pissed. For once, some western countries are seizing their luxury properties which has to be infuriating to them. What good is being a billionaire if the best vacation spot you can go to is Sevastopol or Sochi?
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Sochi is pretty nice in summer tho ngl
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I'd love to go and am pissed that this shit might make that not happen. I've only been to Russia once to visit family as a teenager and where they live is kind of a shithole lmao.
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I don't think NATO wants a neolib. That already had that with Yeltsin and still didn't let them join. The purpose of NATO sort of predates the USSR. Its just to keep the big scary Russia down.
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If you read realist geopolitcal theorists like Brzezinski, preventing disproportionate power over the Eurasian landmass is the number one goal of any hegemon (unless they are that power). Specifically preventing Russia and Germany from joining forces. This is why the reaganites hated the existence of the DDR so much. Even if the Eastern bloc wasn't communist, they'd want to destroy a powerful central European state closely aligned with the Eurasian regional hegemon. It's also why the US fucking hates Nordstream 2 so much. It's not that it makes Russia money, it's that it brings Germany and Russia closer.
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Good luck, be strong comrade
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:meow-hug:
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Do you think that he might have finally run out of political capital among his base and his sycophants in the government? Because to me, the best possible scenario here is some kind of retaking of agency by the Russian people over their country, and it seems like he really has pushed things as far as anyone wants to go.
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from my experience, even many of the hardcore pro-putin people are not eager to support this, everyone is just in a bad mood. I don't think there is any force strong enough to confront putin tho - maybe this war will create it
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TurkeySausageLiker mentioned an oligarchs coup, which might be possible i'm afraid
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the oligarchs in charge are handpicked by putin. they could depose him but that would bring uncomfortable questions about what happens next. which one of the ghouls would get to run the country without getting knifed by some other oligarch? far easier to just leave putin in charge
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i just don't how small putin's inner circle currently is. This invasion was an absolutely apocalyptic decision that only very few people seemingly knew about. Maybe they would consider that putin's power is just way too concentrated at this point
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This is pretty hard copium, but I wonder if in the chaos of Putin's own people turning against him, there might be a chance for someone who isn't completely captured by the capitalist forces in Russia to rise up with the support of the people.
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The CPRF supports the war in Ukraine on the basis of securing the independence of the breakaway republics and protecting them from fascists, but recognizes Putin's imperial goals go further than that, which is a reasonable position to take for them I suppose. So if they somehow manage to force Putin out of office, then it wouldn't necessarily mean the end of conflict in Ukraine.
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The CPRF has pretty good lines on things but in reality they're weak. Zyuganov is like 600 years old and I don't think they have any good successors. I could be wrong though. I'm going heavily off of what my cousin tells me, he's a CPRF supporter and former member of the Leninist Young Communist League (Komsomol) living in Russia.
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I've been wondering about this. I'm not too close to my family in Russia, but they're mostly apolitical except my one cousin who says he wants the Donbas republics to take Mariupol and the rest of their claimed territories but hates the wholesale invasion of Ukraine. My mom had a couple of friends here in the US who were hardcore Putin fans but she broke ties with them over trump (lol) so idk what they're saying. If I had to guess they're probably more supportive than the average United Russia supporter in Russia.
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I'm starting to fear NATO's goal here is to give Russia its own forever war to bog it down for a decade. Sort of like they did to Afghanistan.
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That's certainly the thought I had going into the conflict, Russia really is the enemy of my enemy thing. No doubt multi-polarity is better, I just don't know if this war was a good way of reaching that, though the cards are on the table now regardless. That's what's really in the back of my mind, Russian success could do that, though we really have to wonder and sit with the costs
And I've been following Carl Zha for awhile, it's great to have sound minded observations coming out from him on the "other"side of the media hellscape
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Showing that the US was the provocateur in this has been my baseline in talking about this with people irl, and that won't change. Trying to show how global US hegemony is responsible for these issues would be a good gateway moving forward, if I can break through the popular narrative and not be accused of simping for Russia.
I'm interesting in developing world perspectives, those will likely be more constructive and helpful than global northern ones I imagine. I do wonder what the Chinese leadership is thinking of all this, a bloc with them and Russia is more potent, though Putin may seem less desirable as a partner currently, though after this I can't really imagine s need to invade west again if things go according to plan- the Baltic states and Finland aren't on the same level of concern as the Donbass, I think. So if they stabilize after this then that bloc seems more formidable, otherwise China in its own right is still capable.
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My whole is thing is this war actually impedes progress towards multipolarity by massively increasing support for NATO in Europe and North America while weakening Russia. China is achieving multipolarity purely through their economic strength and good governance. This dumbass invasion is fucking that up.
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At the end of the day, while we continue to not have institutional power, it's probably not worth endlessly delving into an infinity of possible futures and outcomes. Only one outcome will result from this and we don't know what it'll be. Just gotta roll with the punches and have a good set of values that favour the working class over their oppressors and you'll automatically be better than 99% of the people who currently engage in politics.
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You keep me :100-com: thanks
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100%, I think a lot of judgement on this site (mine included) is clouded by hoping to see NATO take a huge L. I think there are some takes on here that are still driven by that, when I think it would be more appropriate to have a neutral disposition toward the situation.
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I don’t want nato to expand and I think a swift Russian victory/Ukraine following previously agreed upon non-nato status has the most probable chance of peace so in a way I could be accused of “rooting” for Russia but it’s not bc I love putin I just don’t want this to escalate into nuclear war lol
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It is insane to me that as awful as the prior gov was, this would all be infinitely better if Maidan hadn't happened. Like that change and upending of a largely pro-russian sentiment has been a disaster. Putin has done a lot to damage that himself.
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while i'm wishing for maidan not happening i'm just gonna go big and wish the ussr never collapsed :deeper-sadness:
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Screw that, wish Khrushchev hadn't taken power
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i wish the german revolution happened lol
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it did, it's just....well Wer hat uns verraten?
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Understandable to have such a bias, I would just encourage us to have a heap of rhetorical discipline if we were a party or org, but we're just dumbasses with an internet connection for the most part so who cares lol.
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to me its just pragmatism, nato is a larger imperialist project and russia gaining the donbas region or them being independent but pro russia doesn't really put them closer to equal footing with nato. I'm definitely not out talking to people like putin needs to win this shit but i think its important to remember what provocations the west made as well, it didn't happen in a vacuum and as materialists we should definitely keep that kind of thing in mind.
but of course i dont support any war that isn't the working class overthrowing their oppressors
real shit if there weren't nukes id just be like "let them fight!~"
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The L for NATO was my main motivating factor in 'supporting' this, whatever that means (making people who talk with me about this question the narrative?)
Also hoping for all this hype to get hit with reality and maybe step back, the media manufacture that coheres popular opinion to NATO and other reactionary agendas is in overdrive and cannot end well. But also trying to measure against being petty because internet person wrong
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But also trying to measure against being petty because internet person wrong
Totally get where you're coming from, but I encourage you to weigh this heavily if you are trying to develop an accurate analysis of the situation.
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It is possible for two enemies fighting to benefit everyone else, and suppressing NATO has a bigger positive effect on the rest of the world than the negative effects in imperialist western core.
Seeing India and China(both abstained form the UNSC vote) being being somewhat close on all of this is one example. Both countries had recent border conflicts but all of this may start to wake up India from previously sharing the same Trump style politics.
Another example of banning Russia from SWIFT is that this will affect third world nations that trade with Russia making them either consider trading with China instead or finding an alternative e.g China's CIPS to trade with Russia bypassing the west.
A lot was already said about the whole new emerging China trading block that will rival the west. This conflict already makes yet another case for it among countries like Iran.
The sanctions don't just harm Russia, it also puts another dent on the global economy and I believe Russia is not in the same situation as the USSR right before the fall. You can't just sanction Russia back into being a third world country and not expect repercussions, there is still the Russian gas question etc.
I think in general I sympathize with the anti-war feelings and the genuine hope that people wont suffer as much, but the capitalism system is a cancer slowly killing all of us already and I strongly feel that this is all sort of inevitable, like climate change will 100% lead to wars for natural resources like water or fertile land.
People don't have to root for Russia if they don't want to, Russia isn't a good leftist country period and is not serving our interests. But there is a bigger picture here that the western left was already completely stagnant and without purpose, perhaps this will make people wake up to the real world again and realize the clock is ticking, hard choices must be made.
If anything it seems like the third world is obviously way more conscious, and I am sorry to say but if western leftists wont side with Russia most likely China and other third world countries are at least willing to compromise for the bigger picture. Make of that what you will.
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still really just hoping it ends quickly.
"What do you mean "end quickly"? Are you rooting for Putin to have this W?!"
actual conversation I had today. The war propaganda is truly frightening.
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Same, I dislike America to such a degree that I kinda automatically root for whoever is fighting them before the mental check of "you don't have to support oligarchs/religious fundamentalists/etc, actually"
If nothing else, we can say that the war ending ASAP with minimal casualties is probably good, so that's something. -
Yeah, I'm in the same boat. "Take the opposite foreign policy stance of smug lib Redditors" is correct so often that it's tempting to take it as an absolute, but this is one of those times it fails.
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Finally the take I've been looking for here. The people rooting for Russia to crush Kyiv and for Ukrainian civilians to throw down arms and beg for mercy make me wanna puke.
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to throw down arms and beg for mercy make me wanna puke.
They don't have to beg, all their shit government had to do is be less genocidal and delusional and surrender as soon as Russian troops reached Kyiv in like 72h.
The way the west and Zelensky are incentivizing people to just become martyrs and die a meaningless death is indefensible period. Many innocents already died in Kyiv by the militia because they were mistaken for Russian troops.
They even went "negotiating" today and achieved nothing because they made clown level "demands" to Russia.
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They even went “negotiating” today and achieved nothing because they made clown level “demands” to Russia
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s office said it would demand an immediate cease-fire and withdrawal of Russian troops.
Ahh yes, the clown-level demand of.. checks notes .. peace. :shocked-pikachu:
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A withdrawal of russian troops including from Crimea and the Donbas region which is a clown-level demand because it's not going to happen and pretty much everyone knows it.
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One of the members of the Ukrainian team is using a fucking baseball cap.. At least try to look like you give a damn lol.
If they were truly concerned for peoples lives they would at least start with compromising with some of Russia's demands, "demanding" Russia will just leave their ethnic minorities territories at this point is clown shit for someone who is pretty much barely holding on.
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What exactly are Russia's demands again? Disarm? Disavow any future foreign alliance? Sounds like totally reasonable compromises for a sovereign nation that is currently being invaded to make. :ummm:
And let's leave our classist dress codes at the door, yeah?
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1074 comments