US 2024 Election Predictions Masterpost

a genocide supporter will win

Yeah, but that's all of them. Israel as our only real ally in the ME gets whatever Israel wants and neither major party is about to change that over a little genocide.

i called biden winning comfortably a year ago, no point in backing down now.

Just to clarify, you mean BIDEN, not Kamala, right?
- i've been told, [he's] staying in the race!
- Did Biden just gain a stand or something lmao

This race is the most "who fucking knows" since I've followed US elections.

Some things of I think are of note

AZ and NV having abortion ballot measures should heavily lean dem (someone else here already mentioned this)
NC's governor ticket will probably drag Republicans down. Mark Robinson was exposed as a serial gooner (pornshop debt) who is a black Nazi that wants slavery to return (this is not a joke). He strikes me as a worse Herschel Walker/Dr Oz type candidate and I think dems pickup NC because of it. The broader Republican party is trying to run away from him because he's seen as that toxic
GA will have the most brazenly corrupt election this side of the century, and that's saying a lot since their incumbent governor probably stole his own first election already. Their election board will send Trump electors no matter what (unless there is somehow a massive electoral college win for Kamala which I don't see happening)
MI goes for Trump on the Stein 3rd party vote and liberals transition from their current state (going mask off) to gleeful celebration of, like, domestic socdem repression
PA I genuinely have no clue. No confidence whatsoever in a call either way
Every other state I think is locked in (including WI for dems- this is possibly what I'll be most gut feeling wrong about)

Republicans take the Senate

I think a 269-269 tie is an incredibly possible situation and I think it would fall under funniest timeline theory (for those reading this results in a Trump presidency due to tiebreaker rules favoring him).

And also in the event of a 269 vote tie dems will deffinitly concede immediatly and claim the moral high ground for the next 4 years, telling all of us they told us they'd lose if we didn't support them.
They lost an election to the Republicans, they aren't expected to do anything, and they can punch left and blame us. That's literally everything the democratic party cpuld ask for.
Republicans down. Mark Robinson was exposed as a serial gooner (pornshop debt) who is a black Nazi that wants slavery to return (this is not a joke).
There needs to be an “all the world’s a stage” but niche sexual complexes. “All politics is sexual pathology” just doesn’t cover it anymore

SNL
That show is so painfully unfunny I’m almost convinced you have to be infected with some kind of mind virus to actually laugh at it.
- I just assume it's some weird attempt at propaganda by the CIA because "SNL was never funny" has been a joke/observation since the 80s.
- They peaked with dick in a box

Harris loses because of Michigan, libs blame the left like always, Biden dies slipping on a banana peel during Trump's second inauguration, Carter outlives him

Libs blame specifically Jill Stein voters
- They have been laying the groundwork for weeks now. They might even go so far as to start calling Stein voters "tankies"
- While us Claudia & Karina voters are laughing from the sidelines

Someone on here said Kamala will win the popular vote but lose the electoral college so I'm going with that. Oh an one more Trump assassination attempt this time by a white black hebrew israelite mad at Trump because he's a fake or something (truth be told idk what these guys want or believe).

Someone on here said Kamala will win the popular vote but lose the electoral college so I'm going with that.
That could easily happen if she's popular in CA by a massive margin but not so popular elsewhere. That's how it worked for the other times this has happened in recent history - the margin in CA being so large that the national margin is smaller than the CA margin.

Kamala wins by a landslide, both electorally and popular vote, but then, Trump and the GOP just say "no", and then a 6-3 Supreme Court decision rules Trump is the winner. The Democrats immediately fold, and then blame the left for them losing. Living in a city is then made a crime punishable by death, and the Democratic Party becomes nonviable.

Living in a city is then made a crime punishable by death
Who else is here for the republicans’ inadvertent transformation into the Khmer Rouge?
- maybe a good time to get used to using contact lenses
and the Democratic Party becomes nonviable.
Please God.

It will be dumb and won’t even be funny.

Despite democratic insistence (or are they just repeating because if you hear something enough times you believe it) that the race is going to go to Kopmala, trump wins.

No funny shit, no stuffed ballot boxes. Trump just fucking wins because the US and A is just that shitty of a place to be and your neighbors really are the pieces of shit you always suspected them of being.

because the US and A is just that shitty of a place to be and your neighbors really are the pieces of shit you always suspected them of being.
move out of the suburbs, it's not real life.
- I dunno, I feel like the suburbs are a pretty good representation of the average American. It's just that the average American is kinda insane.
  You have to get more rural for the median voter to be
  but I don't feel like the somewhat more normal city people are super representative of the average American either.
- I really don’t live in the burbs. I live in an unincorporated area where the cows outnumber the humans. South Texas border town. My neighbors really are pieces of shit. I’m an exception as opposed to the rule, but still… it’s what I deal with daily.
  I might be the only ‘lefty’ in a hundred square miles.
- 52% of Americans live in suburbs, or at least think they do, that Stat is self reported census info

Whoever wins we all lose

Joe dies and Kamala takes office, wins the popular vote but loses the electoral college.

Dems would FROTH

It's HIS turn

Relevant update, Sleepy Joe is apparently finally threatening to halt arms shipments... What if the October surprise is just that Biden and Harris were willing to let a genocide go on so they could suddenly kill it to swing the election? Please tell me I'm just being cynical...

they will lose too much of the zionist vote.
- While not making up for it by gaining an equal amount of the Muslim vote. Ingenious strategy!
Florida is still a swing state and is still full of elderly Jewish people. I dunno if most of them are pro-Zionism but the Harris campaign probably thinks they are
- FL is not considered a swing state this cycle. No resources are being put there beyond maybe token support.
- they are. the majority at least.

I think Harris is a lock to win Nevada and Arizona, because those two states have abortion on the ballot and that will drive the base to vote.

As a counterbalance, the people in those states are incredibly racist
- Will Kdolf Hitler’s blood and soil speeches be enough to win over the hearts of the KKK against all odds? Find out this November 5th!
- Greater KKKingman? Racist?

Election will result in a Supreme Court giving the win to Trump.

This is my guess too, I feel like we're past the point having uncontested elections any more
Yeah, Georgia refuses to certify because reasons and it goes to 6-3 overtime
Kamala wins but the Supreme Court waits until Jan 20 to reverse the election
- Jan 6, just to rub it in.

I think it’ll be very close but Kamala will win. I think she’ll barely squeak by in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Trump will barely win Georgia, she’ll win Michigan and Nevada more solidly, and Arizona will go for Trump. I think this outcome will be less of a reflection of support for Kamala and more of a loss in enthusiasm for Trump this time around. This is a group of people who have been told over and over that the vote is rigged, therefore their vote doesn’t matter, and being generally lazy, they may be looking for an excuse to just stay at home.

I say this fully expecting to be proven totally wrong in a month and therefore be completely owned, but that’s what my gut tells me now. It really could go either way.

The Electoral college unveils from behind a sliding metal door Candidate X, an 18 foot tall behemoth of a machine spewing smoke and depleted uranium rounds as exhaust. It lets out a mighty roar like metal gear Rex could do for some reason and starts stomping to the white house where it sits on the roof, spews a plume of fire into the air and signs bills into law.

There will be a 4th assasination attempt

All the news networks form a pact to not call the election so that they can run non-stop coverage for weeks on end.

Kamala loses the popular vote and the electoral college, then blames leftists and Arabs for not voting for her

I remember all the online elections threads since 2016. The amount of liberal infighting when things look like they are going south is unbelievable. The second Trump took Florida they were calling for progressive heads in 2020.
ArrNeoliberal, ArrFiveThirtyEight, and ArrFriendsFromThePod will be absolutely insufferable on election night.
I'm giving Trump a 70% chance to win. The only solace if Trump wins will be lib tears ngl.
- Considering liberals are openly making death threats for anyone not voting Harris, the safest option may be to vote Trump and take a picture, while registering Democrat.
  That way, you can placate either side that will use public voter roll information to hunt their opposition.
  Oh wait, voting in a specific manner to ensure your continued safety? I guess all that BS about fair socialist elections from liberals was yet another projection.
  In reality I’ll probably go PSL to help them get federal funding, but the game theory is leaning stronger and stronger to the former strategy…

Pretty safe predictions here, so I'll take a wild swing: Isn'treal shoves Iran into full-blown war ahead of schedule and elections are "delayed".

trump wins the election, but since the deep state can't trust him, they actually DO rig this election to make kamala win. but only diehard MAGAs believe trump when he says that because he lied about it last time.

then another january 6th happens.

then kamala girlbosses her neoliberal presidency right in to american civil war 2.

trump wins the election, but since the deep state can't trust him, they actually DO rig this election to make kamala win
But what if they do such a bad job that it's undeniable
- Americans are experts at denying reality so I don't think that's possible.

Guaido wins

I think Obama was the last two-term US president. I think that this country is going to last like a couple more election cycles of "well we already know that one sucks cause they've been president already so time to give their opponent a shot" and then the country will devolve into open fascist dictatorship or feudalism or just completely collapse into a hundred warlord-controlled states

2024 is the year of the Cascadia bioregion of Western North America.

Just to be contrarian and not answer the question, what do we expect the actual material differences to be depending on who's elected?

Foreign policy probably looks really bad either way.
Harris is somewhat better on LGBTQ+ issues but both presidents seem content to sit back and let individual states do whatever in that regard.
Climate change/natural disasters are probably worse under Trump given that he loves to randomly gut important government agencies.

many people are going to vote based on the difference in abortion rights positions.
- Kamala is just gonna say "Supreme Court is against it so theres literally nothing I can do"
  I guess that's better than making it worse but if you're in a red state I don't think it could get much worse.

Trump wins, gets shot and killed during his victory speech. We get President JD Vance.

Yes anding this: he continues the tone shift that he’s already started, liberals trip over themselves to reform his image and gush over how “presidential” he acts. Project 2025 is memory-holed immediately.

The funniest possibility: Trump wins the popular vote, loses the electoral college. I don't even know what would happen next, but it would be really, really funny.

Nate Silver did mention that he believes the NYT thinks there is a political realignment, with white color voters in suburbs being Dem while rural and blue collar workers vote GOP regardless of race. We did see the GOP wanting to do this in 2016 after Romney lost in 2012. Trump, despite his insane hatred of marginalized groups, is now taking these groups in thanks to Dems taking them for granted. It is believed these vorers vote in presidential elections, not midterms.
Nate silver has also gone back and forth on if this is a good idea. For midterms, yeah I see it working but for presidential elections? Absolutely not. And considering how insanely powerful the president is, nothing else really matters.
TLDR: Dems fucking love losing.

I will personally be the deciding vote. What should I write in?

Kamala will attempt to galvanize her base by appealing to a matriarchal structure. Kalama's husband will publicly take a supportive role, emphasizing gender equality and position himself as an advocate for women's rights. However, a recent affair will come to light. He'll do damage recovery by talking about how behind every strong woman is a man who knows when to step aside. He will later release a memoir about the campaign.
Kalama's campaign will derive a new slogan "Rise with Her". However, it'll be revealed that key staffers quit in protest over the strategic direction of the campaign and they join the Trump campaign, with accusations of sabotage. The campaign will lose focus towards the end, with a "Families First" tour that has poor turnout.
In a last minute decision, Trump will call an emergency rally in DC and promises to reveal 'irrefutable proof' of election fraud. A small but unruly turnout will cause mayhem, with his voters buying fake locks of his hair. Several will be arrested for bringing large inflatable objects.
One state will attempt to remove Trump or Harris from the ballot sparking a full blown legal circus. Both candidates benefit from the increased attention and nothing happens.
On election night, Harris will be confident that she will win. However, she is pull aside to be told that one of her strongest states may be under legal challenge because of confusing ballot. She makes a speech about urging unity and patience.
There will be no clear victor for either candidate. Both parties will have fundraiser efforts to do voting recounts. The inauguration will still happen since the electoral college decided already and voting never mattered anyway.

Several will be arrested for bringing large inflatable objects.
Is this illegal in US?
- Let me check

I mean, I already got proven right on Dems walking back anything on trans rights, but I guess that's basically a free space.

I guess we'll get a scene like Pelosi donning African clothes, but with one of the Dems in American Indian clothes. Coincide that with one of the rare good things Nixon did for Indigenous groups being rolled back.

Please don't hand me the lathe though, I'm just following patterns.

Alright, heres whats gonna happen- when the results are called in, Donald Trump will have won the electoral vote. On inauguration day, when Biden leaves office and shakes hands with Trump, he will be shot.

Immediately after, The gunman will be dealt with by the secret service. The FBI will conclude that the gunman was aiming for Trump, but missed.

Republicans stall efforts to finish counting votes after election day enough to muddy the waters so that Trump gets a win like Bush in 2000. Kopmala gracefully concedes and every liberal's brain explodes when they try to suppress the thought of peacefully transferring power to who they were told was literally Hitler for the last 12 months

The swing states all have a lot of fuckery at the local level and it will take a couple days before we know who is the true winner. SCOTUS will try to intervene but the lower courts will get ahead of them to ensure the states wrap up the counting. Harris probably wins, but the chuds will be frothing at the mouth. I'm setting the over/under for how many get shot dead by the authorities at 3.5.

short of Iran launching retaliatory strikes against the Saudi oil fields, i think it's totally a coin flip at this point

Regardless who wins, I'm so ready to dunk on the losers, it will be a grand day

Uhh something emblematic of the country and unfortunate, like a police hate crime somewhere, and Harris wins.

I think people are going to chicken out of third party votes

Too late for me, already submitted my mail in
- Hexbear is a different breed, though.
- Based, so did I

I'm being pessimistic: I think Holocaust Harris is going to win because American liberals are so bloodthirsty and racist that they turn up in droves for her. I hope I'm wrong

Counterpoint: Trump is just as bloodthirsty and racist, so it's still a toss-up.

I'm probably going to put money on kamala just because I need at least 1 good reason to be happy if she wins

I put 20 bucks on Trump

I don't care about the US election because one, I don't live in the US, and two, the elections are fixed anyway and have been for a long time.

I wake up from this nightmare 🤞

I'll make a safe one - regardless of who wins, about 1/6 of the country is going to lose their fucking minds and claim the election was "stolen" or some similar language indicating that the win wasn't legitimate. If Harris wins it will be "stolen", if Trump wins they will use a different word because calling an election "stolen" is right wing and thus icky.

Regardless of who wins, there will be recounts requested in at least two states and lawsuits filed regarding the election in at least one - these numbers will be much higher if Harris wins.

Put odds of a riot if Trump wins at about 50/50, odds of a riot if Harris wins at about 75%.

Trump wins and cadres from the Peoples Liberal Democratic Front begin a protracted insurgency against the fascist government. Hexbear is left speechless.