Either:
- continuing to languish in obscurity with its rough-around-the-edges UX that fails to draw in anyone except self-sufficient computer savvy types who smugly proclaim they like it that way while impatiently tapping their feet and glancing at their wristwatches waiting for mainstream socials to collapse already, or
- wildly thriving, but dominated by an oligopoly of major breakout platforms that dominate the rest of the ecosystem, subtly altering it over the course of many small, tolerable nudges to the point that it hardly resemble what anyone who is currently here liked about it in the first place.
My money is on the former.
Reddit 2.0
Either dead or a niche as it is now.
Way more AI. The bots will take all the fun and not leave much for the rest of us.
I hope more governments and institutions start self hosting their own AP publishing, at least for microblogging.
I also hope we get more multiparidgm app platforms like friendica and mbin.
Loops and Peertube are super promising, especially with peered hosting to manage bandwidth hits. It'd be smart for major creators to have a delayed archive in self or group hosted instances to help with discoverability and fight risk of content loss. Canadian Civil is paving the way.
I predict there will be more integration with tipping / patreoning platforms.
I predict there will be some ATpro features like federated identity and moderation extended into AP, or a blessed version of ATpro from the W3C's Social Web group (Bluesky is already working on transferring ownership of the protocol to IETF). Either way apps will simply migrate or find bridges and the wider fediverse will grow.
European Union regulation will probably threaten the very principles that the Fediverse functions on, potentially making Lemmy illegal anywhere in the EU because it's not auditable enough, or doesn't meet data retention or some kind of consumer privacy law.
The EU is a threat to the Fediverse unfortunately.
The EU literally uses the Fediverse themselves. https://ec.social-network.europa.eu/
Eventually decentralized services with anonymity will be killed by the EU, they already want to stop all text encryption, the way anyone can stand up a server and run it however it's already in conflict with the GDPR.
As much as I would turn down the knob on some of their regulation, I don't see why. The absolute worst case I could see is them legally-requiring people in the EU to not federate with instances abroad. That might fragment the Fediverse, but it ain't gonna kill it.
If we're successful, then we'll see an influx of spam and corporate influence. We'll have to make filters and blocks easy and effective, and in some way automated.
If we can meet that challenge, we'll thrive; if not, we'll whither and die.
I don't really have a fantastic prediction, because I don't feel like the major factors are really foreseeable at this point.
I think a big factor is what happens with Reddit and Twitter, since the Threadiverse and Mastodon are obvious alternatives.
Another is how well other alternatives, like Bluesky and Threads do.
I think that it's hard to call those factors.
I doubt that Mastodon or the Threadiverse, at least, will die soon. I think that they've got enough mass that even without any major influx, they could keep going.
I don't know about some of the other services. One ActivityPub-based system doing well doesn't mean another will, and some have not a lot of userbase.
Agreed, there will probably be a lot more AI generated content on it by then.
Dead
If the major social media companies still exist by then, I think it will still be the same as it is now. Maybe a bit more users, but still a minority in the space.
If we can fix federation we should be ruling the internet. If we cant then we will be doomed to go out wirh a wimper.
Someone needs to establish some sort of non profit that has the simple goal of getting the whole fediverse to play nice with eachother. An account should be a private key i hold. Federated messages should be signed as messages not fucking http requests so the can be forwarded.
Mastodon will still be the biggest fediverse service. It will remain a niche player in the microblog world, as Bluesky gradually becomes the big player by stealing users from the platform formerly known as Twitter.
The rest of the federverse will (hopefully) coalesce around fewer projects. Development is massively fragmented right now. I'm very curious to see which projects flourish, and which projects die.
I do not expect the federverse to unseat large corporate social media and become home to the masses. And I'm okay with that.
I do not expect the Fediverse...
I hate to agree with this but I do. I would love if more people said fuck you to data harvesting and started denying access to everything as best they could; and decentralizing social media would go a long way in that. Unfortunately, too many people have too much faith in corporations
I expect it won't be that different and will remain niche for the foreseeable future. Works for me.
The same with some extra features and visually overhauled sites most likely more users though maybe a lot more but really I think nearly all of the fediverse websites need a visual upgrade they don't look striking enough to draw you in there's no edge there.
This is a bit of a long reach, but I can see it switching to ATProto, like Bluesky. The fact that identity, hosting and moderation are all done by the same person in ActivityPub is a big cause of many issues and drama on Mastodon. I think ATProto would fix it, and give access to everyone on Bluesky as well.
Usenet?
Discussion on Usenet got hit pretty hard by spam. One of the major benefits of Reddit, in my view, was that it was significantly less-impacted.
The Threadiverse consists of moderated communities.
I think that that is gonna have a major impact on spam, same way that it did on Reddit.
I don't use any other Fediverse system on a regular basis, so I don't really have a great feel for them. I don't know how Twitter deals with spam or whether Mastodon does or can use the same approach.
It is important that Reddit had one unified group to fight against spam combined with several volunteers on the same platform. The Fediverse doesn't have that, it is just too small to spam to a large degree.
There will be several fediverses. The ability to maintain one unified fediverse won't hold.
