place yer bets

I’m going all in on the potential straight.

With more data collected over time, the chance has already been reduced to 0.28% https://blogs.nasa.gov/planetarydefense/2025/02/20/additional-observations-continue-to-reduce-chance-of-asteroid-impact-in-2032/

Everyone saying "they can evacuate" clearly doesn't remember how bad the covid response was.
There will be anti-space conspiracy theorists. The ownership class would demand people continue working until the last possible minute (and beyond). It would be politicized, because some people are unbelievably stupid, cruel, and selfish, and enough people are so stupid they'll buy in.
Now, if we could make the meteor fall on a location occupied solely by the people who don't believe in science...
- Look, it's really simple. Just don't look up. If we collectively ignore the problem, it won't be a problem.
  
  They could make a movie about that!
- At least "crushed by asteroid" is not contagious.
- Also the impact risk corridor passes through states that are poorly equipped for large civil defence operations: Ethiopia and the CAR are in civil wars, Yemen is in a civil war with the majority of the country under the control of an unrecognized government, and the South Sudanese government is quite week—being at peace only for the last 5 years
- Everyone saying “they can evacuate” clearly doesn’t remember how bad the covid response was.
  or not paying attention to political winds welcoming the evacuees.
  It would make sense to have a more cooperative world, even if cooperation involves "victims" compensating those able to protect them. Hope the US can continue to contribute tracking resources, at least.
- … that’s exactly what would happen, it would land on all the people who don’t believe in science.
  If this happens frequently enough the Republican Party will just vanish.

Is it wrong to hope it hits us?
- yeah, yeah it is
  
  Why is that? The planet will be fine without us. It will probably be better off without us.
- Yeah, because at best it just splashes in the ocean, worst it hits a city and causes mass suffering as thousands die from the impact and fallout. It's not going to end any suffering
- Yes, because it's not going to be nearly as catastrophic as it sounds. What we need is a real world ender.
  
  Is it wrong to hope it hits the specific city I live in? 😅

Thankfully I live in the USA where we're totally safe because we reject science! But don't you try coming here for safety, we hate everybody else. You'll probably just be sent to gitmo.
- Just don't look up, duh

Risk is probability times consequence. Focusing on the odds without considering the second half of the equation is stupid.

"I'm gonna go all in."
- this is my favorite poker sim
  
  Ngl mine too. I ended up never finishing it and using it as a great poker sim. 😅
  
  Eh, I liked Far Cry 3's poker minigame better. Or, from memory, RDR1.
  Yes, the atmosphere is great. But the stacks are just so low, players give little action, and the overall game flow is glacial in RDR2.

Outside of extremely extenuating circumstances, this isn't a worry. We already have proof-of-concept tech like DART to divert asteroids, aerospace engineers can use this to get governments to fund them even better, asteroid goes behind the sun for 3 years, asteroid diverting technology advances even further, in 2028 when the path of travel becomes more precise the chance of hitting us gets revised down to zero, and we've advanced our technology should anything more serious come our way in the future
- yeah, we really don't have to worry.
  With the DART mission tech, we can get our hit chances into the 90 percents
  
  Gotta pump those numbers up
- Backup is that we have a team of deep sea oil drillers go up there
  
  Why are we trying our best idea second?
- @OneTwoThree @fossilesque actually we want this asteroid to hit Earth. Remove one threat from the sky. Divert to hit in a safe place. This one is safe if it hit in a remote location.

I won't believe it's gonna miss us until it gets to 95% likely it will hit
- I see another one branded by XCOM.
  
  I find the XCOM comparisons funny because the game actually tilts the RNG in the player's favor and people still think it's unfair
  https://www.giantbomb.com/xcom-2/3030-49817/forums/xcom-2-is-un-fair-1792143/

The sad thing is that according to Scott Manley video the areas it can hit are equatorial Africa or South of India, so lot of countries will try to ignore it
Until those countries start planning a meteor re route, which if done improperly could push the impact zone anywhere.
- india: nudges the asteroid a bit
  china: "yo, wtf"
  
  asteroid path now 100% chance of impact on Yellowstone

Odds are low, but not zero. Still a bit of a nothingburger now that we've been able to successfully land probes on asteroids to sample their contents (and even send back video similar to images taken by Mars rovers). Strap a small thermonuclear warhead to an unmanned probe and redirect its trajectory - not a simple matter but entirely feasible.
- Unmanned? Nah, lets just assemble a team of oil drillers and send them up there like space cowboys.
  
  It'll be easier to teach drillers to fly shuttles than it would be to teach astronauts how to dig a hole.
  
  Wouldn't it be easier to train astronauts to drill?
- Don't even need a warhead. The Double Asteroid Redirect Test (DART) just threw the probe itself at an asteroid hard enough to affect its orbit.
- Make a probe with a giant fuel tank and engine land on the asteroid then just fire away to push it slightly off target so it misses the planet. Don't need to destroy just alter the trajectory a tiny bit.
  
  You're right, but the nuke is a good backup plan too. Beyond that, the UFO community has been saying for years that NHI's explicitly told human leaders to never use nuclear weapons in space (or else), and I want to know if it's true or not...
- Wtf, no, the way to deflect an asteroid is to send something near it while it's far away. Blowing it up just risks another smaller asteroid hitting us. Small changes in direction while incredibly fast away will change its path enough to be safe.
  
  Holdup, your user avatar can be a GIF too?!

Don't give me hope

Gimme that flush COME ON
- Am I being wooshed? It's impossible to get a flush with the two spades. Or the Aces.
  
  Oh my god all night I couldn't get what yall were seeing and the ACE IS A FCKING CLUB
  My bad, yes you're right. I've been playing Balatro w high-contrast cards...
  
  Nah, you have it right. 4-5 needs runner runner 2-3 or 6-7
  
  Just needs a world card
  
  Hearts but not for the 3% guy. Still low odds for a flush, yeah?

Yes, but the audience score is at 80%.

Some examples of very enjoyable related media that are not Don't Look Up include The Last Policeman book trilogy and the Netflix animated series Carol & the End of the World.
(There's nothing wrong with Don't Look Up, but it's the only recommendation I ever see.)

So what level of calamity are we talking about here? 3% doesn’t sound that low to me.
- I recall hearing it was medium-ish nuclear weapon sized, but not wipe out civilisation size. Wherever it's heading would need to be evacuated.
  That was a week ago, though, and I'm sure the size projections will be updated as we get more data.
  
  This is correct. Current estimates place a possible impact event at an energy release of ~7.8 Megatons of TNT. Approximately 500 times the bomb dropped on Hiroshima. Comparable to the Tunguska Event. This is accounting for current size estimates under 100m in diameter.
  It is a very serious asteroid. The Tunguska Event could have killed millions of people. The primary reason it didn't was because it happened in the middle of Siberia. The primary witnesses to the devastation were local native groups who still lived that for out, of which there were few. It wasn't properly investigated for over a decade because of the remoteness of where it happened and the low priority as it didn't affect very many people. If that happened over a major city the consequences would be utterly devastating.
  It's not K-T Extinction event level, but it is nonetheless quite serious.
  
  We'll get a better idea of whether it'll hit or not in 2028 the next time it passes close to earth, which will give us plenty of time to respond before it might hit in 2032.
- If it is on a collision course we probably have time to do something about it. If we don't do anything about it it'll probably hit the ocean and it's not big enough to cause any kind of crazy mega tsunami or anything like that. If it does hit land it'll probably hit in the middle of nowhere and kill, like, 12 people, and if it does manage to beat all the odds and hit a major city it will be a major disaster, but it's not going to be the apocalypse or anything.
- Well we wouldn't have to worry about global warming anymore
  
  This size meteor would destroy a city but not have lasting planet-scale effects. Think Tonguska event.
  
  Yes we would? This isnt a planet killer. Its a city killer. Plus theyll know where itll hit and can evacuate the area before hand. There is no reason a single person should die from this rock unless someone does something stupid.
- They arent 100% sure on the size but itll be a regional disaster. Few hundred square miles of destruction. And theyll be able to evacuate the area before hand. Itll land somewhere between south america and india theres a line map you can find of the area that could be hit and thatll get narrowed down as time goes on. We will know where its gonna hit far in advance if it does hit.

Revised down to 0.27%
- Just when it was getting good too! One of these days...

I begin to worry when I see this asteroid still in the sky and how it becomes gradually bigger

It was nice knowing yall
- Well it would still have an impact energy less than that of tsar bomba, and probably just hit an ocean.

Alabamans are still marrying their cousins.
- I can't blame them, their cousins are hot.
- What are you talking about Shelbyville, why would we want to marry our cousins?
  
  Yes! Eat all of our shorts!

An interesting thought is that if it actually hits, this might provide the impetus for some countries to get their shit together and get into space for good. Potentially changing the course of history.