Nate Silver issues "good news" for Harris on electoral college chances
The statistician remarked that we are back on track for a tossup election.
So the model image you posted above there says it's more likely that Trump wins the election than it is flipping two heads in a row while flipping a coin. This is saying it's less likely for Trump to win than Hillary to win, but something that could fairly easily happen still. These aren't poll numbers, where 70-30 would be a massive blow out. This is a 30% chance of winning for Trump, closer to a coin flip than a sure thing.
A lot of other models were saying something ridiculous like Clinton had 95% chance to win or something. Nate Silver's model seems better than others based on this, if anything.
A lot of other models were saying something ridiculous like Clinton had 95% chance to win or something. Nate Silver’s model seems better than others based on this, if anything.
The constant attacks on how 538's model performed in 2016 says more about statistics literacy than it does about the model.
There is plenty to criticize Nate Silver for. Take your pick. Personally, the political nihilism that's increasingly flirted with "anti-woke" sentiment is good enough for me. Some people might prefer taking issue with the degenerate gambling.
But his models, historically, have performed relatively well if you understand that they're models and not absolute predictors.
I keep trying to reframe it to people that I am happy to spend an extra $2 on a tank of gas if it means not having a convicted rapist who sows division and hate as a role model for my 12 year old niece.
And then add in that I’m an international buyer and can confirm EVERYONE globally is paying more since COVID. And tariffs ARE passed on to the consumer.
I’ve slowed down my own postings and now responding to my conservative friends political posts, hoping it gets to more of those people.
Sorry to focus on this point but gas is subject to a fairly fluid global market. I've been driving a car since Clinton and have never noticed Republicans being better for gas prices or the price of anything, if anything it's the opposite.
You can't just give them the idea that gas will cost $2 more. It won't.
Why are we looking to a Newsweek article about Nate's blog, instead of the blog post directly?
Last update: 9:30 a.m., Friday, September 20. The theme of the week remains mostly strong state polls for Kamala Harris, like this batch from Morning Consult, which helped her even though Morning Consult has consistently shown some of her better numbers.
Indeed, today marks the 3rd time so far in the election that the streams have crossed in the forecast — Harris is technically the favorite in the model for the first time since Aug. 28 — but the race is a toss-up and that will happen a lot when the forecast is so close to 50/50.
Note that these margins are still razor thin. Voter turnout (and related factors) will be absolutely critical to the final results.
Meanwhile in republican planning... how can we cause enough delay to trigger a contingent election?
I have full confidence she'll win the votes necessary. I have less confidence in GOP and MAGA operatives not pulling out all the stops to ensure Trump wins on a technicality. They WILL attempt a steal!
If Trump wins, would you accept the results of the presidential election?
The people that are blindly accepting an installed candidate are concerned about stolen elections
No. Per their post, they already have it in their mind that he will "steal" it, so even if it was an absolute landslide and there was no funny business to be heard of, he cheated.
Now That's What I Call Democracy™!!! Vol. 47
You see, there is only ever fraud if your candidate loses.
P.S. I will not be voting for Trump in the coming election. I just know you will dismiss me as a "MAGAt Ultra Trumpetearista" or whatever other name is popular now for it.
Oh does he? Does he “issue ‘good news’” then? Oh.
Can he also bite my shiny metal ass?
So you'd like him to go on a Bender?
Nate Silver is still trying to figure out the difference between his ass and a hole in the ground.
Time to shut the orange turd out!
Suddenly everyone loves Nate Silverman again? Or is it confirmation bias kicking in?
why did they hate him?
LOL you love to see it
There are some people still mad at him in this comment section though, to be fair
I did see a few, a few surprised me
This bot shouldn't be able to call itself a "fact checker" when it doesn't check any facts from the articles it replies to. It just spams its own bias opinion about what bias the website has in general.
You are a spam bot. Lemmy would be better off without you.