politics

I'm putting this up early since it's likely I won't have time tomorrow.

Monday, 1/15, is the date of the Iowa Caucus, please direct all comments, links, and replies involving that here!

Edit - 5:36 PM Pacific, 7:36 PM Iowa time, 8:36 PM Eastern - MSNBC declares Trump the winner (shock!)

8:23 PM Pacific, 10:23 PM Iowa time, 11:23 PM Eastern. MSNBC declares Desantis #2, Haley #3.

90% reporting: Trump - 51% - 52,912 Desantis - 21.3% - 22,140 Haley - 19% - 19,762

Edit Next Up - 1/23 - New Hampshire Primary!

For those unaware, a caucus is totally unlike a primary.

In a primary election, you show up to a polling place, you cast your ballot for your chosen candidate, the ballots get counted, and whoever wins is whoever wins. On to the next state!

A caucus is far, far more chaotic.

https://apnews.com/article/how-iowa-caucus-works-2024-democrats-republicans-592ab40b9b9b948c0540f2cf132bab5c

"The Republican caucuses will convene statewide at 7 p.m. local time (8 p.m. EST), and begin with the election of a caucus chair and secretary. Only registered Republicans may participate in the caucuses and only in their designated home precincts. However, Iowans may register or change their party affiliation on caucus day. Voters must turn 18 by the November general election in order to participate."

"There is no walking around the caucus room to form candidate preference groups. That voting method was a feature of Democratic caucuses from 1972 to 2020 but is no longer in use by either party in 2024."

"The binding presidential vote functions essentially like a party-run primary, only with very limited polling hours and no accommodation for absentee voting, except for a tiny handful of overseas and military voters. There are speeches on behalf of various candidates before the voting and a variety of party business after the vote. Individual caucus chairs are allowed to exercise some discretion in how to conduct the vote, but the voting is done by secret ballot and there is no set list of candidates. Voters must be given the option to vote for any candidate they choose. In the past, some caucus sites have pre-printed the names of major candidates and provided a write-in option, but typically, voters vote by writing the name of a candidate on a blank slip of paper."

The "limited polling hours" is key here, because if you decide to step out for a smoke, or to hit the bathroom, or grab a sandwich when the vote is called, you might not get counted at all.

In previous years this has led to accusations of under-counts, over-counts, and all other manner of shenanigans.

Here's the history of the past few Iowa Caucuses and how it related to the general election:

2016: Ted Cruz - 8 Delegates, 51,666 votes Donald Trump - 7 / 45,429 Marco Rubio - 7 / 43,228 Ben Carson - 3 / 17,394 Rand Paul - 1 / 8,481 Jeb Bush - 1 / 5,238 Carly Fiorina - 1 / 3,485 John Kasich - 1 / 3,474 Mike Huckabee - 1 / 3,345

2020: Donald Trump - 39 Delegates, 31,421 votes Bill Weld - 1 / 425

Sources: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Iowa_Republican_presidential_caucuses

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Iowa_Republican_presidential_caucuses

General Elections:

2016: Trump/Pence - 800,983 Clinton/Kaine - 653,669

2020: Trump/Pence - 897,672 Biden/Harris - 759,061

Sources: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election_in_Iowa

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_Iowa

Ohioans vote Tuesday on a measure that would make it harder to pass future changes to the state constitution. Ideastream's Karen Kasler explains the possible implications for abortion access in Ohio.

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Sources:

NPR: A look ahead at the Ohio special election

Five Thirty Eight: Everything You Need To Know About The Ohio Ballot Measure That Could Block Abortion Rights

CNN: Ohio special election becomes proxy for abortion rights fight

PBS News Hour: Ohio voters to decide on constitutional change before determining abortion rights

The Guardian: Republicans pushed a special election in Ohio – what does it mean for abortion rights?

Slate: The Cardboard-Box Billionaires Are at It Again, This Time in Ohio The Uihleins have put millions of dollars toward preventing a vote on abortion in the state.

AP: Voters in Ohio reject GOP-backed proposal that would have made it tougher to protect abortion rights

NY Times: Ohio Voters Reject Constitutional Change Intended to Thwart Abortion Amendment

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For comparison, Washington Post coverage \(registration required\)

We're watching US democracy dying right before our eyes.

If Biden and the Democrats had any mental coherency and a spine they'd be using this ruling to their advantage and fuck over conservatives before conservatives get into office to kill democracy and the opposition parties.

Alternate news organization: https://apnews.com/article/trump-hush-money-sentencing-bragg-4d5f8ce399656abff72d7c114a04060d

> President Biden’s policy agenda is incredibly popular, much more popular than his opponent’s. But Biden the man? Not so much.

> The question now is whom to blame for the approval gap between the president and his agenda: voters, the media or Biden himself.

> Democrats have long argued that their policies are more popular than those of Republicans. In a recent blind test conducted by YouGov, that was unmistakably true. The polling organization asked Americans what they thought about major policies proposed by Biden and Donald Trump without specifying who proposed them. The idea was to see how the public perceived ideas when stripped of tribal associations.

> Biden’s agenda was the winner, hands down.

> Of the 28 Biden proposals YouGov asked about, 27 were supported by more people than opposed them. Impressively, 24 received support from more than 50 percent of respondents.

Washington Post coverage for comparison

cross-posted from: https://slrpnk.net/post/11061194

> Washington Post coverage for comparison \(registration required) > > Really a contrast with the incredible immunity and power the US courts are willing to give Republican Presidents.

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.world/post/17119069

> "In every use of official power, the president is now a king above the law," warned Justice Sonia Sotomayor. "With fear for our democracy, I dissent."

He got 2000 "wrong"... Or did he?