Harris tops Trump for first time in Nate Silver’s election forecast

can i do both? i kinda like data

I tried to go vote but they told me to come back in three months. Maybe I'll have better luck tomorrow.

Counter argument. When the pollsters say it’s a dead heat, listen to them.

If don’t you want federal abortion bans and more handouts for billionaires, then you need to show up and bring your friends and family.

It’s going to come down to a handful of votes.

Why do people on Lemmy hate polls so much? Who’s going out and saying “I’m not going to vote, we have polls instead”

I'm glad they listen to polls. With Harris we actually have a chance.

The last headline was about edging. I’m a bit worried about the election climax, but I am hoping for postcoital bliss.

Trump wears the diapers in the relationship

If it wasn't already obvious, the whole Stormy Daniels spanking him with a Forbes magazine confirmed it.

of course he would be; you'd think he'd actually do work in bed?

excuse me now i'm gonna throw up.

For no reason at all I started reading old Archie comics from the very first printing a couple years ago, and I really really appreciated this post

60% of the time, it works every time

5% is a huge margin in polling. He should be within that margin much more often than 75%.

Nate is an aggregator with a model. Him, 538, and others like them are the ones that are literally watching the watchers. Silver is not a pollster, he’s someone that looks at other pollsters past performance and ranks / calculates how likely they are to be correct in current polls.

Did he? My recollection is that he gave her a 70% chance of winning, which is not at all the same as predicting that she will win.

Days before the 2016 election, 538 (which Nate Silver founded and was leading at the time) ran an article titled "Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton". Nate Silver and 538 did some of the best forecasting of that election. Don't conflate him with others' screwups.

There was a massive voter suppression campaign in 2016. Specifically there were roll purges in many of the swing states. Trump's team has inserted MAGA cultists at all levels in Georgia. They're trying to do the same throughout the rest of the swing states.

That's not how his model has ever worked.

I think the messaging around polling in general is lost on most of the population and lots of people confuse the chance of winning with a prediction of the voting outcomes. This article is approximately 8 years old now and aged like milk, but comparing the odds Trump had of losing a game of russian roulette is very apt. With the benefit of hindsight, more emphasis should have been put into driving comparison home. I think that every poll should include this metric instead of trump's chance of winning.

Lol... He just cursed Kamala.