Battery prices are forecast to fall 40% by 2025, and by 13% every year until 2030.
Electric vehicle battery prices are falling faster than expected
Will anyone be left buying new internal combustion engine cars by the end of the decade?
I look at the car market like this: imagine you're a bright young thing, just graduating car engineering university and setting off for the bright lights of car maker boulevard.
You get 2 job offers, one is to work on cars which most governments around the world are going to ban from sale in 7-12 years time, which is about one fifth of your career. The other offer is to work on the cars which will take over from those.
Which job do you take?
Sure, the internal combustion cars will get people working on them, but not the best people, they will go elsewhere.
Most likely, but only because there’s large swaths of America and Canada that have no charging infrastructure and get very cold. Those two things are still weak points of battery tech that will have to be over come by capacity and physical traits. We’re getting there, but I wouldn’t bet on EVs taking over by the end of the decade. Most likely mid to late 2030s is when we’ll see larger groups of electric tractor trailers and that’s when we’ll see mass adoption.
I wonder if even then hybrid might become dominant.
The charging infrastructure could catch up pretty quickly. It's just a matter of getting the transition rolling.
As for cold weather, it sounds like it can be worked around if there's enough charging points - and I live in the coldest populated area of the continent.
Some dudes will just out of spite, probably. Besides that, people in remote areas. There might be minor niche uses too, but for most people it's great.
Yes, there is no way I'd buy an electric vehicle
Yes. There will always be the deplorables.
