Exclusive: Harris leads Trump 44% to 42% in US presidential race, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds
Exclusive: Harris leads Trump 44% to 42% in US presidential race, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds
Harris, whose campaign says she has secured the Democratic nomination, led Trump 44% to 42% in the national poll, a difference within the 3-percentage-point margin of error.
National polls go beyond meaninglessness and into actual harm. The national popular vote does not elect the president, as we all should know too well. My vote in Illinois is worth far less than someone's vote in Wyoming. Your vote in California is worth far less than someone's vote in Alaska.
Unless a national poll weights responses based on state, and based on the electoral college results from states, it is completely misleading.
As with all the discussions on national polls, it's necessary to point out that national polls have no meaning. We don't have national elections.
Blue states are gonna blue state and red states are gonna red state, so the President will be decided by a handfull of states that don't reliably vote one way or another, and frankly, we just don't have enough good data on a Harris nomination to say one way or another.
Looking at the notable states I've looked at before, this data is from before Biden dropped out.
Arizona - Trump +6 vs Harris
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/Nevada - Trump +10 vs Harris
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/New Mexico - No data for Harris.
Georgia - Trump +5 vs Harris
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/North Carolina - Trump +4 vs Harris
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/Pennsylvania - Trump +4 vs Harris
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/Michigan - Trump +5 vs Harris
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/Wisconsin - Tied.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/Minnesota - No data for Harris.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/Harris also puts Virginia in play now as well, in what was assumed to be a blue state, now Trump +4.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/virginia/
So this is her starting point. She has 105 days to turn this around. The Democratic convention in August is key.
As of right now though? Here's the map:
Let it be a runaway snowball of a lead
This is good. Early, sure, but its numbers going in the right direction.
1.) POLLS ARE GARBAGE.
2.) Corporate news cannot run a horse race without polls
3.) See #1
Project 2025 mentions Trump's name 300 times. Officials from his administration were involved in writing it. It's a plan to replace public servants with "Trump loyalist" - which Trump calls "destroying the deep state" but is actually know as "Unitary Executive Theory", aka a dictatorship.
In 2018, The Heritage Foundation said on their website, that two-thirds of the previous "Mandate for Leadership" they wrote for Trump had been passed into law. They're a big part of how the GOP sets policy when in office, dating back to the Reagan era.
Let’s get this number to double dights!
How’s that convention bump coming along, Donnie?
That's within the margin of error. That's not leading.
Oh cool a national poll, I’m sure this’ll be super relevant to a race decided on the state level.