Nate Silver predicts Trump has 64% chance of winning the electoral college in latest forecast
Nate Silver predicts Trump has 64% chance of winning the electoral college in latest forecast
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to be fair, nate silver is an idiot funded by peter thiel
He's not an idiot. He is funded by Thiel. He has been politically captured by authoritarian capitalism, so I'd be wary of any models he produced that aren't independently audited for bias.
I think polls are useful, and the monte carlo simulation approach for turning them into a electorial vote probability is good, but there "too much" magic sauce left over for me to trust the outputs from Silver or 538.
I doubt even the usefulness of polls. Who answers polls anymore? We've been polled and surveyed to death. Nobody has time for it anymore.
I do or at least I have in the past. If the caller will answer my Google call screening, I'll answer or call back.
There's always been a issue of sample not matching population, and a variety of methods to correct for that. But, I will admit there is some limitations to that, and I don't quite understand where the limitations are. (I love math, but I failed statistics once, and barely passed the second time. I prefer symbols and proofs and closed forms...)