Nate Silver predicts Trump has 64% chance of winning the electoral college in latest forecast

Abolish the Electoral Collage.

Just a reminder to not be complacent.

Here's hoping Trump pulls a Biden tomorrow.

Who is this guy and how serious should we take this information? This is by far the highest number I've seen for Trump so far.

Ignore headlines

JUST VOTE

His older model at 538 has things tighter with the coin toss slightly weighted toward Harris.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-harris-2024-election-map/

Whether it’s 55/45 or 65/35, we’re still basically talking about the same thing. This race is neck and neck, and whoever gets the turnout edge will win. We’re talking about fractions of percents that are at play, which is why these odd are a coin toss.

Edit: it looks like 538’s model is new, and Silver doesn’t like it or the guy behind it.

https://www.natesilver.net/p/why-i-dont-buy-538s-new-election

to be fair, nate silver is an idiot funded by peter thiel

I hate my country

Important to note, these forecasts are absolutely subject to change. This is not Nostradamus. It is merely reading the polls and factors as they stand. If Harris obliterates Trump tomorrow then this flips. If everyone donates enough money this week and the DNC gets more ground network for their get out the vote efforts, then this flips

All the model guys are very clear about this.

What's driving this current Trump run in the models is the lack of a convention bump for Harris. Models automatically tune a candidate's chances down by about 10 percent after their convention because it's usually a bit of a honeymoon period. It's been pointed out though that she may have had her honeymoon period after taking over from Biden. In which case the odds are more like 46/54.

The takeaway from this is that this election is incredibly close right now. Even at 36/64 it is very close. Both candidates need to run near perfect campaigns to have a chance of winning.

Nate silver also predicted Hillary would win against Trump.

I suspect Harris got her "convention bounce" (as defined by the model) right when she became the nominee, this made the model think she was overperforming pre-convention and now the bounce is fading "early" when the model thinks she should still have it so it seems like she's underperformed.

If this is the theory, knowing how close the swing states are and thus how swingy it can be, most likely this number goes back to maybe 55/45 Trump.

But still no getting rid of the EC or passing RCV by incumbents.

Maybe Harris can do something about that to win over votes. How about committing more war crimes to get a George Bush endorsement with the Cheney one?

Gaza is calling