Nate Silver predicts Trump has 64% chance of winning the electoral college in latest forecast
Nate Silver predicts Trump has 64% chance of winning the electoral college in latest forecast
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Abolish the Electoral Collage.
That ain’t gonna happen.
That said, we can make it irrelevant with The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. It’s 77% the way there.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact
I love the concept of it, but the thing about the NPVIC is that it’s 0% of the way there until it’s 100% of the way there. So while 77% seems like we’re close, and there is legislation pending that could get us to 95%, the only reason it seems to be going forward steadily is that it does nothing unless you go all the way.
The moment there is the prospect of legislation in a state that would get that last 5%, not only will that legislation be fought tooth and nail, but every state that has already entered the compact will have to fight like hell to keep it in place, not once but constantly forever. Because if you’re just over the threshold then almost any state backing out of the compact will nullify the whole thing again.
It seems too fragile to be a workable solution. But I guess I don’t see anything wrong with trying!
Many states will be incentivized to keep the compact passes because it means the election stops focusing on a handful of swing states.
Every presidential campaign will have to adopt a 50 state strategy, meaning a lot of states will receive political attention they never get because they aren't swing states.
The legislation has to all-or-nothing precisely because of the effect on political attention. If a state awarded its delegates by national popular vote before the magic 270 was reached then politicians can win that state by maximizing their votes in other states so they would be incentivised to put more focus on the states that aren't signed up if they expect to win the popular vote, reducing the political attention paid to signatories.
When the 270 mark is passed, it has the effect of making every vote equal everywhere.
When the 270 mark is passed, it has the effect of making every vote equal everywhere.
Right, and this is bad for the Republican Party, so they will do everything in their power to stop it.
Very interesting, I had never heard of this.
Sssh, Top Sneaky.
Or Electoral College even.
I would like to see what an Electoral Collage looks like.
You don't have one in your Democracy Scrapbook?
Mom went authoritarian on me when I cut up her Electoral magazines.
It's what Trump tried to make with his fake idea.
I thought that's what the Republicans were trying to make with all those weird gerrymandered districts.
This is what we should've spent every waking moment doing since 2016. Why do we distract so easily...
- 2000
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