It's always telling when some one insists that a statement is true when they themselves know that it isn't.
It's 💯 the case the Biden isn't the nominee today. I'm not arguing if it's going to be a progressive or a insider that replaces him. Frankly, I could give a shit because either will be doing instantly better than Biden.
Biden is replaceable and there is a cult of personality that has developed that believes this isn't the case. They're wrong. There as delusional as the right wing MAGA crowd and their doing MAGAs work for them as the useful idiots that they are.
It's important to keep it clear that I'm not arguing that some how magically were going to replace Biden with a progressive. I'm arguing that needs to, and will be, replaced. That's what Thursday showed us, and I know for a fact that the Beltway heard this.
The party that needs to be convinced is Harris. And I think she can be. All of these machinations are happening this weekend, as we speak.
My called shot: Biden steps down as early as Monday, as late as two weeks from Monday. I'm going to be making some calls and seeing what tea I can find spilled.
Hasn't he like.. repeatedly claimed that his uncle was eaten by cannibals?
Bruh keep this guy off any stage.
20:1 specifically?
https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html
That's just the odds of Biden (or Trump for that matter) keeling over for literally any reason whatsoever based on the social security actuarial table. So if I can get 20:1, I should be break even betting against any octogenarian.
There is a little bit better than a 1 in 15 chance, that for any 81 year old, they'll die that year. So I hedged it to 1:20 as insurance, because I figured I'm really only betting on the first 9 months of the year. If I can get 1:20, that's break even odds (actually slightly in my favor). Also, figure the presidency, campaigning; that shit aint a walk in the park. Probably more likely still to die in office than a standard octogenarian.
I'll give you 10:1 if you bet at least 50 bucks. I lose, you make $50; I win, I make $500. Hows that sound?
Edit: As to how to enforce it, we can make a community and pin it there. ITs similar to what we used to do in a bar I frequented where we would bet pints (very similarly) on whatever was happening. There was a cork-board and bets would get pinned to it. And I trust you.
Biden or trump WILL be the next president.
This is just not a true statement. Neither party has actually had a convention.
I know you barely fucking understand what any of that means, but literally, either party can change their minds until the days of the convention.
Your opinion that the party doesn't recognize the actual fucking disaster that Joe Biden is, is just that: your shitty opinion.
And a week ago, the world agreed with you. That flipped completely on its head last evening.
We were never obligated to Biden. We're not obligated to Biden as a party now. Lying, like you are doing, that we are in some way obligated to a candidate that can-not-win against Trump, is you advocating for Trump to win this election. Stop. Just fucking stop.
Every cable news, mainstream news, and alternative news source, the only conversations they had all day today, was who is going to replace Biden.
In 40 years of watching politics, I've never seen the media landscape react like this to a single debate. Period.
And it shouldnt be shocking if you watched the debate, Biden was a fucking disaster.
So no. Your wrong. Wrong in analysis, wrong in facts, and wrong in principle. Save these comments. You'll be reminded of them when Biden isn't the nominee and we take the white house in 2024 with [insert literally any other Democrat].
Also, stop fucking lying to yourself and others and pretending its fact.
No fightn' no fussn' just love for a drug called
RO-BO-TUSSN'
Yeah. Supreme court ruled that political parties post-2016 are private clubs that can do whatever the fuck they want (Supreme Courts ruling on DNC's ratfucking of Bernie).
Afaict from DNC rules , Biden needs to release his delegates for the first rounds of voting; from there it would proceed like any convention prior to 1976.
Honestly, it would be a great thing for the Democrats to do this. All of a sudden people would really fucking care about the election.
do not get a vote on whether or not to elect a senile President this cycle
Yeah this is just false.
If you actually want to bet spell out your terms and odds.
You've got the entire thing backwards: Biden is the albatross.
ANY other democrat polls better than Biden. Biden is the worst possible democrat to be running. Period. Except maybe Hillary, and even then, she'd be doing better than Biden right now.
You swap out Biden with literally any hollow blue suit, and you are suddenly 10 points up in the polls.
I mean, look. I was on both of Bernie's campaigns. I put in thousands of calls for the guy. But brother, Its a pipe dream. Bernie polls 20-25 points ahead of both Trump and Biden. It wouldn't be a W, it would be a Blue version of this map. Bernie would CRUSH Trump.
But its not going to happen. The DNC would rather lose to Trump than ever consider a genuine socialist. I would LOVE to be wrong on this, but its not going to happen.
Honestly, we could probably get Katie Porter through the wickets. We could probably get Gretchen Witmer through. I think we could get Inslee in. I'd put each of these at less that 20% stand alone probability.
Honestly, the best bet, the one I think has both the highest probability of getting the nom, and can actually win:
Andy Beshear
He's a somewhat progressive southern > two term < Democratic governor.
He's won Kentucky. Twice. Hes "a bit" progressive, but not a Bernie or a Ro Khanna.
You know who else was a two term, southern, slightly progressive governor?
Bill Clinton.
I'll bet Bernie with my heart. I bet its going to be Andy Beshear with my wallet.
I see both sides of what you are saying; but if this is what you get when you put the guy on stage?
Bro keep him under a rock. Its just much much more evidence that Biden can-not-be the candidate if we need to win this one.
I mean. Sure I guess?
So it was unfair. Sure.
But Biden and his camp didn't need to agree to a debate. It was going to get them nothing. There was NOTHING to gain here and everything to lose.
And they lost.. everything .
It shows that the Biden team isn't capable of manging this election; it showed that Biden isn't capable of offering the rhetoric it takes to win.
The Presidential role is a communications job. If he can't do the communications part of this, he__cant__win.
Biden was in the mid-forties before the debate
Bro Biden was in the mid thirties before the debate.
The Roaring Kitty channel revolves around educational live streams where I share my daily routine of tracking stocks and performing investment research. The Roaring Kitty channel and live streams are for educational purposes only. I share my approach to investing in an effort to set you on the righ...
The stock is up 30% you 📰 🖐 's
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Since ARM got listed at $45 back in October, its seen a pretty good run-up. It peaked at around 160 after its listing and has been able to hold up at least 90 since then. Neat but nothing spectacular. Nothing crazy but prob a good ROI if you were interested in buying the day of.
Since then we've seen Apple further commit to the ARM based M4 chips. Now its Microsoft seems fully committed to ARM based processors for whatever their new "AI on platform" product is going to be.
We're also seeing a whole new form-factor of device with the steam deck and its new competitors. ARM is not there yet in terms of being able to run all of the software that has been built around the x86 architecture, but we also just got the news of Microsoft releasing the PRISM x86 to ARM interoperability layer. Now is it good? Idk. Likely ymmv.
So lets summarize. The two biggest hardware+ecosystem players both seem fully committed to ARM. ARM runs cooler, and more power efficient than x86, but until very recently, no one was designing around it for 'performance system'; its domain was that of embedded hardware and phones. We have a whole new class of products gaining market penetration in the form of hand-held gaming PC's or steam deck type products. These products would benefit MASSIVELY in terms of performance with better performance/ power ratios. Likewise, with the advances in ML, manufacturers are looking to move inference onto device. And this is exactly what Microsoft and Apple appear to be doing. All of this depends on ARM.
Now the bad. ARM had a bad earnings last quarter and the price dumped from 160 to 90. Its recovered to 115 since then. However, it didn't have the press that it does now. The new Microsoft line wasn't out yet. We hadn't heard of or seen the release of the M4s. I think there is good news out there in the mix for ARM this quarter.
Ultimately, some company is going to have to get in there and compete for AI acceleration, and doing so in a more cost effective, more power efficient way seems like a no brainer.
If you are thinking about microprocessors, you first question should always be "Where is Jim Keller eating lunch"? The answer? Tenstorrent. They aren't publicly traded yet, but guess what architecture they are building around?
You guessed it. ARM/ Risk-V. You follow Jim Keller around not because Jim Keller knows the future, but because the future follows Jim Keller around.
TLDR: ARM is massively undervalued and represents the future of computing for smaller, cooler, more powerful computing and AI. Its what Jim Keller has decided to spend his time on. If you just throw your money at whereever Jim Keller is currently working, you'll make bank.
Positions: Shares that I bought at listing that have given me a very noice ROI (not selling options on them), and the August 15th $115 calls. I'm planning to hold the calls through the earnings run up, and I'll hopefully sell some of them to cover the cost of the position to hold at least a few through earnings. ARM is still very new, so earnings could be a mixed bag.
Members of GOP violating Trumps gag order on his behalf.
ABC News earlier reported Israel had launched a missile attack on a target in Iran, citing a senior US official.
US officials say military operation carried out, without giving further details; Iran state media says air defences fired and airspace closed in some areas
Canoo’s Oklahoma City Manufacturing Facility Approved as Foreign Trade Zone
So if you gambled on my last DD you might have picked up some Canoo shares as a legit moon shot play. The 23-1 stock split was a big punch to the ribs, but today, GOEV is up ~70%-ish on news that their manufacturing facility in OK has gotten approval to be a Foreign Trade Zone (FTZ). This effectively make GOEV the largest FTZ in Oklahoma, which isn't saying much because hey, its Oklahoma.
That all being said, shit was getting dicey last week and after the reverse stock split, things were looking bad for GOEV, since it dropped almost 50% on that news. Today however, it pretty much made all that back up, which sets up an interesting earnings play.
On earnings, turns out ToS was lying to me. The real earnings date is April 1. With this big price move and news, that brings more focus onto the earnings call, but it still wont really mean shit because this is a brand new company still building out manufacturing. I don't expect break even until maybe 2026. That all being said, its getting in on a US based EV manufacturer, most of whom have shown many many to one rate of return for early investors, even those whose cars are only powered by gravity. I don't think we're still in that world, and GOEVs vehicles do actually move under their own power, so that's a big plus.
I think this news really mitigates most of the downside risk and I might hope for a price between 5-6$ post earnings. Earnings at this point in their lifecycle is kinda bullshit so grain of salt and all that. But its a calendar event with a specific timeline, so it should move things.
Position is still shares (<1k shares). I'm not betting the farm on these guys, but I think the upside potential is still very strong and that we'll eventually see one of the major manufacturers take a large stake (that's when we'll see a 10x day).
So that's my GOEV DD update. Depending on your timing from my last one, you either are break even or doubled up. But today is a very good day for those holding GOEV.
Machine is a HP ENVY x360 Convertible 15-eu1xxx with the touch screen. Ryzen 7 5825U, touch screen 16gb RAM.
Top recommendation of within one hour of me posting this decides what distro I install. Please not Hannah Montana linux or even worse, Arch.
I leave the decision up to you.
Edit:
The winner was linux mint. I've downloaded the ISO and am installing now. I hope my boss doesn't get pissed.