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I asked GPT-4 for a list of the most important threats to human civilization, their likelihood, and why they were considered threats.
Of these, I feel like climate change, a meteor, and nuclear war are really the only viable existential threats, and even climate change will most likely not destroy humanity wholly, although what's left may not be worth living in.
Yeah, people are sleeping on biodiversity loss. That one is going to come out of "nowhere" even though there are fewer birds in the sky now than when I was a kid.
It has drastically overstated the likelihood of a globally catastrophic impact from space.
A devastating regional impact is estimated to occur once every 10,000 to 100,000 years. Note that’s regional not global.
There has only been one of any significance in all of recorded history that I’m aware of, which fortunately took place in an uninhabited region of Siberia.
Search for Torino Scale if you’re interested in learning more about how they estimate and categorize these threats.
Fair. I just see a lot of these posts where people say "well ChatGPT says this" and I'm trying to educate people that that doesn't actually mean anything yet.