23h ago

Gríma Wormtongue, aka Alex Karp CEO of Palantir, Spills The Plan 10 Months Ago

He told the New York Times that he thinks the U.S. will “very likely” find itself in a three-front war with China, Russia, and Iran. As a result, he said, the Pentagon should continue developing autonomous weapons at full speed, pointing to big mismatches in how far the U.S. would be willing to go while fighting a war compared with other countries.

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He says shit like this to juice his stock and defense contracts.
The US could probably take on Russia and Iran without much effort, but isn't China's military actually comparable to the US'?
- China considers itself a regional power, and doesn't delude itself into calling itself a world power like Russia does. So it's unlikely they'd direct any strikes at CONUS if a war broke out. They would instead try to force all US/allied influences out of their sphere of influence and just play the defensive game until some kind of peace could be negotiated.
  They have aspirations to become a global power in the next century and possibly could do it, the real question is do they intend to share the stage with the US or find ways to erode US power down to regional power and rise up to take their place?
  
  I think that if a war was to break out, it would be like US vs Japan in WW2. Except we would be Japan and China would be the US.
  The Japanese had superior weapons and ships, but were unable to replace losses in a timely fashion, leading to being dominant in the beginning of the war, but once the US manufacturing base started producing weapons and ships, the Japanese were quickly overwhelmed and unable to keep up.
- The Chinese have little to no capacity for long range strikes. As long as you stay out of the way, they can't do very much.
  
  True but China really doesn't need to strike the heartland. All of their war goals and strategic interests are south east Asia. The only reason they might want to conduct strikes on the US would be preemptive attacks to disable ICBMs and long range bombers.
  If China/US war broke out tomorrow their primary targets would be Taiwan, Japan and Korea. UD calculus would be to either come get involved and counter those pushes, or abandon their longtime allies in the region, which would send a dangerous signal to other US allies and partners abroad. Even if Trump wanted to avoid a war with China, US Navy has too many assets tied up in SEA to just turn away.
- No. Only slightly in number of people. And even then, they're probably more Russian like than we're expecting.
I'd rather fight a one front war against palantir
- 2050
He's also got plenty of financial incentive to say shit like that. War on all 3 of those fronts would be so untenable with the state of things and he knows that which is why he's advocating for more drones but really? How realistic is that? China's drones are at least as advanced as ours
- We have the arsenal to win all 3 wars almost instantly. Until now, no leader was stupid enough to take that route, but we have Trump.
  Don't try to logic this situation with reasonable military tactics.
  
  No.
  
  Don't be absurd, you most definitely do not have that. You have the arsenal to ensure mutual destruction between you and your nuclear armed enemies.
  
  No you don´t. You couldn´t win in Vietnam or Afghanistan, the latter with the help of NATO (Rmember, srticle 5 was invoked by the US, and some of us European deeply regret to have helped and sent our soldiers die for the US).
  
  Define win because I’m pretty sure it doesn’t mean what you think it means.
  The only tactic with “almost instant” results would be the US just nuking everything, which A. is definitely not a “win” by any definition, and B. is an insanely irresponsible assumption that there wouldn’t be substantial collateral damage and that’s if you were inhumane enough to ignore the lives of everyone living in the targeted countries to begin with.
  Or somehow do you think the US could win a conventional war against three separate countries “almost instantly”, after it took 2 decades to make absolutely no lasting changes in Afghanistan? In which case just lol.
  
  We have the arsenal to win all 3 wars almost instantly.
  As another poster pointed out, this is…not true.
  https://responsiblestatecraft.org/us-stockpiles-missiles
  https://www.heritage.org/missile-defense/commentary/its-past-time-re-supply-our-munitions-depleted-us-navy
  https://nationalinterest.org/feature/us-missile-defense-under-strain-213274
  https://trt.global/world/article/91a89e6ad503
  https://cde.news/u-s-military-missile-arsenal-under-strain-amid-global-conflicts-and-aging-infrastructure
  
  I wouldn't call global nuclear annihilation 'winning'.
Lunatics are truly running the asylum.
What makes him think we're going to fight Russia? Mango Mussolini loves Russia.
- This article was from before the election.
  
  Derp, missed that part
- 10 months ago*
- Yeah Hitler “loved” Russia for a minute too
- In some sense our large contributions to Ukraine earlier in the war could be seen as us fighting Russia via proxy. If I recall correctly our involvement with conflicts in Syria were also seen similarly, as us fighting a Russian proxy state. My understanding is that war between nuclear powers often looks like this because all out war could escalate to nuclear weapons too quickly. All this to say, I think we were already at war with Russia before Trump regained office.
- Not to mention China seems to choose the most economical decision it seems. They care about Taiwan strictly because of money. There is no economic growth for them from fighting the U.S.
  
  It only seems like that because theyre being compared next to the US which is currently sawing its own leg off.
  
  I disagree about Taiwan. That's a thing that goes back to the founding of modern China, it is, and has been a cornerstone of their policy. But otherwise ya, they seem to make rational economic choices.
  
  That is so false.
  China routinely hamstrings its industry with burdensome government involvement.
  And they act out like raging toddlers. Look at how poorly they managed integrating HK because they wanted to rush it with force.
- Also they're in no shape to fight
- Because Trump turns on everyone eventually.
  
  art of the TACO
So the guy who runs the AI intelligence corporation thinks the West is morally superior to the degree that more amoral, barbarous countries like China and Russia and Iran have some advantage over us.
Like it's just sensitive and soft westerners fighting against robotic Asians and Russians. Iranians are so evil compared to us: they're willing to use nukes!
Psychopaths
I mean, George Dubbya kinda let this one slip back in the 2000s.
- Yes he did, the New World Order plans.
TBF I could have told you that was a real possibility like 3 or 4 years ago at least, but at that time I would have said it was unlikely because theres no way everybody just forgets how bad the Trump admin was and elects more republicans. The USA would have to be steeped in mental illness and masochistic mouthbreathing assholes for them to elect someone like Trump who escalates the situation.
Because 3 way wars are easy to win.
- Especially ones with no obvious win conditions
- Especially when one of the opponents has several times our population and all opponents are oceans away, besides two of the three being nuclear armed and the third being close. Even with the size of our military, I don't think that's a war we would stand a reasonable chance in.
  
  Imo, we are fucked. Ukraine drones show that our aircraft carriers, planes, and tanks are worthless when a 1000 dollar drone can carry munitions to cripple them.
  It's a new world and we aren't prepared for it.
  
  Iran would be a non-issue in an actual war with us. Occupying it would be a far different story. Same with Russia. China, on the other hand, would be extremely devastating to both sides.
- The United States military strength has, until very recently, been focused on the ability to successfully prosecute war on two major fronts and one minor front.
- They are with a nuclear arsenal. And Trump is stupid enough to use it.
If we can't clean up Iran quickly there's gonna be a no front war because China will roll us
- Bet you China has some checkmate against carriers they'll pull from their sleeve if things go hot.
  Chinese think many steps ahead so they won't escalate until victory is very likely.
Something something BRICS
Wtf is going on with that hair?
- It's fighting a 360 front war
Thank God I have severe sleep apnea.
Get the fuck out of the room

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