Apollo Global Management: "If current policies do not change, then the probability of a US recession in 2025 is 90%."

While markets wait for trade negotiations with 90 countries at the same time, global trade is grinding to a standstill with problems similar to what we saw during Covid: growing supply chain challenges with potential shortages in US stores within a few weeks, higher US inflation, and lower tourism to the US. We reiterate our view that if current policies do not change, then the probability of a US recession in 2025 is 90%,