What do you think is next for Canada and the USA?

The US will not invade Canada. At some point, it would require political integration. It would be a generation after that before the Republicans won an election.
There are 40 million people in Canada and more land area than the entire US. At least 75% of Canadians would vote Democrat and that is before the bitterness of an invasion. Even as a single state Canada would swing the House and every President. As multiple states, Canada would swing the Senate. Think of the Supreme Court that would be appointed. The GOP would be completely locked out.
Just allowing Canadians already in the US to vote would have cost the Republicans every presidential race since Reagan.
For the above reasons alone, somebody will stop Trump from pulling the trigger. The US will not invade Canada. Even if they did, they would give it back.
That said, Trump may wage an unbelievably destructive trade war. And the end game for that may be for Canada to submit to total subservience to the US.
We are in a negotiation. The threat of war is just part of that. We hold some decent cards. By appeasing Trump, we start to lose cards. We can get more cards by aligning with the rest of the world both economically, militarily, and socially as fast as possible. The good news is, the world seems to be there for it.

I would view it as an escalation if the govt starts warming us up to getting rid of US media, content and platforms. We shouldn’t be mass importing their media, news, worldview as much as we do normally but now they are invaders - digital boycott is a real thing.
- This is SUCH an important point. The biggest and most painful band aid that needs to be pulled off is the cultural one. Our collective cultural identity has been steadily, gradually eroded by the loud, brash braying that the asses to the south continually emit day in day out. If it's not clear to us by now, Americants don't view anyone outside of their bubble as real people, or anything beyond a thing to be exploited. A means to their end.
  The crucial realization though is that they absolutely depend on the their cultural exports to validate and legitimize their global behavior. A product and service boycott is good. A global cultural boycott that utterly repudiates their entire way of life is what's required though.
  
  I am SO down for this. And I firmly believe Canadians need to excise the American invader cultural hegemony from ourselves. The boycott has to extend to digital services and cultural services. I was only signalling that if govt starts outright banning US media, while I personally would be fine with it, it’s likely a very bad sign of things to come (ie, an actual military invasion incoming).
- Getting off Facebook is one of the most important things we can do since it's the largest spreader of misinformation.
  
  Been off that for years.
- Russia used weaponized its culture against its neighbors for generations... To the point here every country has a small but strong and vocal regime bootlicker culture.
  Speaking American is high risk behavior
  
  Sounds like some annoying reactionary factions in Canada as well
- I would like to see Canadian cable TV replace (at least some) American channels with international ones from the other English speaking countries.
  And delete Faux news entirely.
  .
  Yes, I know the number of homes with cable continues to shrink, but it's still got a massive installed base.

I do not believe the US will invade, at least not for quite a while. It would be economic suicide and is very unpopular even amongst Trump's own voter base. Will he in the future? Maybe, and we absolutely should plan for that. Canada needs a proper military and our forces can no longer exist as just an arm of the US military.
I think what happens next will largely depend on our government(s) going forward. Trump's temper, imperial ambitions, greed, and pride all ride on a constant knife-edge and dealing with him requires a skilled and smooth hand. We can further our ties with the US and essentially become a vassal territory, or we can seek new allies and deals elsewhere which seems to be the route we are taking at present.
Canadians need to get used to the new reality that we now share a border with a fascist dictatorship lead by a screaming near-80 year old toddler and an army of yes men. I think we are going to end up a lot like Finland in that living under the constant threat of invasion is an aspect of daily life. The bear hasn't struck yet but one day it will and every person needs to be ready and know how to respond.
Securing our democracy and economy is paramount. The Americans will be attacking our elections, our media, and our protected industries. We have been doing a good job at getting people to stop buying US products but we need to get them off American social media and news sites too - it is literally a matter of national security.
- This is a good assessment. For some added context, the idea of annexing Canada is astonishingly unpopular in the US. Even among Republican voters, only 25% approve. No one in the White House understands where this insanity is coming from or why, no one in the Republican party is in favour of it. It's basically just Trump and Navarro.
  So while it is absolutely insane that the possibility of a US invasion exists, there's no real likelihood to it. Russians see annexing Ukraine as a good and right thing to do. They don't generally want Ukrainians to suffer - they see them as fellow Russians - but they see annexation as in their best interests. There's no such appetite in the US. The American people have zero interest in a senseless war against an ally.
  But Trump is largely unchecked, and he may try anyway, no matter how much the attempt would destabilize his own nation. That's a risk we have to prepare for.
  Either way, our days of treating the US as a reliable ally are over. Canadian soldiers bled and died for them in Korea and Afghanistan, and fought shoulder to shoulder with them in both world wars and multiple peacekeeping operations, and this is the thanks we get? Fuck that, and fuck every American that allowed this to happen.
  
  You say no-one is in favor of it, but notice how none of the republicans running the show are so much as shushing him.
  As an American, let me assure you that is a very bad sign. It means they either think they can control him—which they can’t—or they do approve for whatever reason and just plan to make him the fall guy so they can have plausible deniability.
- Excellent post. The Finland comparison seems very appropriate.
  I also complete agree about getting off American social media, especially Facebook.

I think the Canadian national conversation has shifted. Sure, many business will need to or choose to still trade with the US, no matter what craziness starts or stops during or after the Trump administration. But we won't take the US for granted as a stable trading partner anymore.
The trade war will come on and off over his term, whenever Trump wants to take the media off of a different problem he caused.
A real war is very unlikely, not impossible, but it depends on Trump and how competent Trump's yes men are at enacting his fanciful ideas. I'd prepared for the possibility between 2016-2020, Trump would drop a nuke, and that didn't happen at least. But just the same, once again as Canadians we should be prepared for the worst, and work with whatever we have as a nation. They can take a lot from us by force, but they will never take away our solidarity and our sovereignty without us voluntarily giving it up.
- Yall know that taking Panama, Greenland, the tip of South America, and Canada is literally the plan these tech bros laid out for the land they want for their new techno states, right?
  Also these people aren’t all American. America is occupied. We need a little help from our friends. We are at war.

We can see from their Russian masters how an American invasion would take.
They’d try to grab and hold strategic areas and resources, while using missiles and aircraft to cripple the economy and infrastructure and spread fear nationwide.
However, we can remember that the US has tried to invade many other countries and they’ve failed every time. And while we may never have the tanks and aircraft to match them in open warfare, even much poorer countries than Canada were able to successfully repel the American forces.
And in this scenario we’d have a massive untamed border to use to make counter strikes, and would likely get significant military support from allies around the world and in the US as well.
So it would be monumentally devastating on both sides. It would be a catastrophically stupid endeavour. Which doesn’t rule it out, they have extremely stupid people in charge.
But personally I believe the US would descend into civil war before this happens, with “blue” states having suppressed voting rights trying to secede.
- But personally I believe the US would descend into civil war before this happens
  Which doesn’t mean we shouldn’t prepare for this possibility, starting yesterday.
  We can use the money we were pissing away on F35s to create a national corps, who would be trained in the types of guerrilla warfare we’d need in this scenario. And be cross-trained to respond to climate emergencies such as floods and hurricanes and fires. And help build out infrastructure to shore up our east-west corridors and access to the north.
  
  Just a note for anyone here: the CAF reserves involves an average one night and one weekend commitment per month, not including your BMQ/SQ and trade-specific training. Getting the time off for training might be tricky, but most reservists work full-time civilian jobs or are students.
  As someone else pointed out, this is what the CAF is, but IME this specifically describes reservist roles to a tee, which are intended for domestic scenarios (though if for whatever reason you wanted to, you do have the option of applying for deployments).
  Completely understand folks who are ideologically opposed to military service, or who (quite reasonably) are concerned about some aspects of CAF culture to date. But this may be of interest to some of you, and if so you should look into it. Have a feeling, based on Lemmy demographics, some of you might find what the Royal Canadian Engineers does interesting.
  
  a national corps, who would be trained in the types of guerrilla warfare we’d need in this scenario. And be cross-trained to respond to climate emergencies such as floods and hurricanes and fires.
  When I joined up, that was the CAF. You're describing the thing that we already have, and most of its mandate.
  
  I so hope those F35s do not come to Canada, I know it will be a learning curve that pilots and mechanics will have to under go if we get the other ones but as I understand it we will get the rights to make replacement parts and do the repairs to the European ones.
- The strategic situation favors the US immensely, with all our cities situated directly on the border. There's basically no way to mount any kind of serious defence of Canada. Every city, almost every strategically valuable location, would be lost in days.
  But our nation is superbly suited to guerilla warfare, with our vast forests providing excellent cover against aerial and satellite observation, and the CAF is superbly good at fighting against superior numbers and firepower because they train around the assumption that they will be fighting an enemy that outclasses them in equipment and numbers. Manuever warfare, hit and run strikes and defeat in detail are core to CAF tactics, and they know how to fight in ways that maximize their impact while minimizing losses.
  They're also very, very good at what they do. Canadians routinely demolish Americans in wargames and training operations. Our training standards are much higher and it bears results. This isn't much help against the sheer scale of the American military; a holding action like the one Ukraine is putting up against Russia would be functionally impossible. But a guerilla war would make the Americans pay a heavy toll for every day they tried to remain here.
  The US would control the cities, but all of those strategic resources that Trump wants are deeper in the interior and much more vulnerable to hit and run attacks by a determined Canadian military presence, while ordinary resistance fighters would be able to launch terror strikes against vulnerable targets all across the continental US. They would have to place security forces everywhere, while we can choose to strike anywhere. Just the financial and political weight of protecting every state capitol, every senators home, every factory, every distribution centre, every power plant... Hell, every mall and school if we want to go that far... Would be absolutely crushing. How long would the American people put up with going through checkpoints to get to work, being pulled over and searched my soldiers to get to the grocery store, all while watching bombs blow up in their neighbourhoods and their tax dollars get pissed away on the world's largest and most expensive national security operation? America is swimming in debt and piling on more to give tax breaks to billionaires, and a right wing government has no way to embrace the kind of radical economic thinking that could try to solve those problems. How long could they even sustain an occupation for?
  
  There’s also the fact that Canadians are well trained on all US military equipment, and so would both know what to expect and know how to use anything they captured.
  And US Intelligence is littered with Canadians; Canadians have written a lot of the software and designed a lot of the hardware the US military uses.
  Oh, and in general, Canadians are more highly educated.
  
  A question from someone who knows nothing about warfare… As a commonwealth country, could we expect support?
- But personally I believe the US would descend into civil war before this happens, with “blue” states having suppressed voting rights trying to secede.
  How? By waving little round signs? By holding sing-alongs? By getting outraged whenever anyone doesn't like the latest Disney movie? What gives you the impression that anyone on the American left would be willing to expend the kind of effort and sacrifice necessary to mount a serious revolt?
  
  I feel and share your rage about the inaction by the American mainstream left.
  My hunch that they’d change their tune before allowing their country to engage in outright war with Canada is nothing more than combination of a hunch and naive optimism.
  We certainly can’t bank on my hunch — we need to prepare as if you’re correct.
- We need to take cues from Ukraine and work on a drone airforce and navy.
  Get millions of the things.
  We have the robotics capability to lead the world in this.
  
  The CAF is already working on those things as we speak. Trust me, every single lesson that can possibly be gleaned from Ukraine is being studied backwards and forwards across the entire military. From the highest levels to the most basic grunts, the CAF are studying every report, every video, every anecdote that comes out of Ukraine. And yes, absolutely both drone and anti-drone systems are being acquired as we speak, along with new anti-air and anti-tank capabilities, and a new frontline service rifle.
- As a Canadian it would not surprise me if Carney were to offer that at some point.
  
  I grew up in a location where a significant number of my teachers in school were US draft dodgers. Pretty sure it would happen again.
- Fingers crossed because most battlegrounds would be in blue states. I hope that if he tries to force blue states to fight their neighbors, those states would rather secede and fight back

I'm of the mind that the Orange Imbecile intends to start a war, any war, to justify him staying on as president beyond his second term. If a civil war doesn't happen within 3 months of the start of the next presidential election cycle I fully expect him to attempt to invade us. Whether his military allows it or not is anyone's guess but AFAIK he has already begun emptying the top brass of any dissenters so....
- I'm from the US and fled to Canada during the second Bush Jr. administration. The funny thing is I'd kill to have that lovable idiot back in office. It's amazing how you never really appreciate what you've got until you have something MUCH worse.
  I have family in the military down there. Wouldn't it be funny if they had to come up here to kill me and my family and seize my land? Boy wouldn't my face be red! That would just be hilarious!
  
  I mean, I'm sure i don't need to tell you, a ton of the groundwork for this was laid by that "lovable idiot" and his handlers. Bush walked so trump could goose-step
- "within 3 months of the next presidential election cycle" if the last two have been any indication, we're already 2 months in.
  Let's see if the mid-term election happens and/or how it goes.
  
  Yeah I do not think their mid-terms are happening, we are not years away from the next US civil war.

Canada needs to dedicate its 3.6% of our gdp on the military while we build more town infrastructure further northward to give ourselves more land to retreat to.
Best case scenario Ukraine gets all that surplus equipment and we have more people spread out across the country.
- in a way, Trump is actually succeeding in getting NATO member countries to reach the 2% GDP commitment for military spending... by scaring countries into arming themselves against the United States.
  it's like convincing your friend to install an alarm system by threatening to rob them at gunpoint.
- We don't need to go north. There's plenty of space in, say, western Ontario that's going unused.
- We're not going to move north, they can occupy our land but they won't be able to handle the insurgency. We'll move south, we'll blend in, we'll blow shit up.

EU membership, please!!

Oh Trump will absolutely try to redraw the borderline. His handy reality denying sharpie will come out again.

I've started listening to the audiobook Canada alone, and so far it's very prescient of what's happening. Worth a read / listen.

Next up for Canada and America is Canada and Europe... we'll certainly rebuild a trade relationship over time but the instability of the American electoral system has been a much needed wakeup call to reduce dependence on our Southern neighbors.

- We'll have to get in line behind Putin then.

When everything started on Jan 20 and you could see what was happening in the US. Their regime dismantling the government, Musk, DOGE, and tariffs, and it was hard to believe what was happening. Then, the continued threats to Canada, it was all pretty scary.
Now, 50 something days in, I'm starting to realize they have no plan and no execution, or even no sense to what they're doing. So sure it still feels really unstable and uneasy but less threatening.
Hopefully, the world will economically destroy Musk just on the principal of his actions. Show billionaires they are not immune.
I do think it's possible there eventually will be a military action on Canada. I think the most plausible thing I've heard is that Canada would be easy to invade but nearly impossible to hold. That would be a messy situation for both sides. Nobody will be a winner, so it will come down to desire to go down that road. From what I've been hearing, there is only a very low percentage of people on either side of the border who have support of this action.
In the meantime, I would be happy to see Canada disconnect from America, find new trade partners, and improve our infrastructure. Seems to be what the plans are, so I think we are dealing best we can in the situation we are in.
True north strong and free.
- Speaking of improving infrastructure, cbc is building out local news and hiring (permanent contracts in a unionized gig btw, for any fantastic yet out-of-work journalists scrolling by).

I would love to see much closer relations between Canada and the EU, perhaps even a mutual defense agreement.

Canada should fund US resistance groups. Fuck waiting these four years. The world will be unfamiliar and unwelcoming.

I wish we could have Civil War 2: The GOP Are Traitors. Instead we get this schizophrenic bullshit.

https://malcolmnance.substack.com/p/urgent-warning-trump-is-planning

As an American living in Seattle area. Please invade Washington, so we can succeed it to you and join your fight. The new way of doing things here is to lie things into existence so we have a good shot at a non violent succession. All we have to say is Vancouver North and South are actually part of the same territory and use a sharpie to circle them on a map. Worth a shot at least. Assuming you would have us that is, please take us!
- I’d be for that; I have family living between Metro Vancouver and Vancouver South (North Vancouver is a separate city and South Vancouver is a suburb of Vancouver) on both sides of the current border.
  Although realistically, we need to replace British Columbia with Cascadia and absorb the entire Columbia River basin, so there are no future fights over water rights or management.
  Red River valley has some similar issues further east; not sure which way the border should move there; most Canadians along that border already shop in the US.

ONAN interdependence

Monday comes next.
- There are still several hours left of Sunday, someone could shoot someone and the war could start today! Just saying.
  
  That's true. I'm being optimistic.

I think we’ll all get on just fine. This is like a toddler tantrum. Just need to cry it out in the corner a bit.

Yes. Canada and Groenland WILL be invaded. That will trigger a major civil war on US. Canada and Groenland people will be treated like second class citizens and live in poverty. All ressources will be steal by US. In the end, after decades of insurrection, US will be torn apart and broken economically and militarily. That will be the greatest opportunity for China and Russia to take over the west. Other question ?