Ontario slaps 25% increase on electricity exports to U.S. in response to Trump's trade war

Art of the Deal

So where's Quebec in this? I would have figured they'd be trying to outdo Ontario in the FuckUS movement.

This is just Ontario. Niagra Falls spans the US and Canada, but most of the hydroelectric power generation is in Canada.

https://www.niagarafallsinfo.com/niagara-falls-history/niagara-falls-power-development/the-history-of-power-development-in-niagara/niagara-power-generating-quick-facts/

• By the International Agreement, the Canadian power stations draw 56,500 cubic feet of water per second and the American power stations draw 32,500 cubic feet of water per second.
• The Sir Adam Beck Generating Stations and the Robert Moses Generating Station together form the largest generators of hydro electric power in North America.

However, more-broadly, aside from Ontario providing hydropower, Canada does provide a lot of energy to the US.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/mapping-us-canada-energy-relationship

Mapping the U.S.-Canada Energy Relationship

https://lemmy.today/pictrs/image/4f1602ec-be23-4ea4-9601-0554378d408d.jpeg

EDIT: I'd also point out that some of the stuff in the above map is crude oil. American consumers are exceptionally politically-sensitive to the price of gasoline, even above-and-beyond its economic importance. I believe I've read articles that this is because prices of gasoline are very visible, plastered everywhere on signs, so any change really alters perceptions.

kagis

Yeah.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-04/will-trump-s-tariffs-on-canada-and-mexico-drive-up-us-gas-prices

Why Trump’s Tariffs Could Drive US Gasoline Prices Higher

The cost of living is top of mind right now for US consumers, whose long-term inflation expectations are at the highest level in almost three decades on concerns that President Donald Trump’s tariffs will lead to higher prices. Although fuel is a small portion of the average American household’s budget, it’s a highly visible and politically sensitive expense that drivers are reminded of every time they fill up at the pump.

How reliant is the US on oil imports from Mexico and Canada?

Although the US exports more oil than it imports, oil imports still play a vital role in the country’s energy supply. That’s partly because US refiners rely on the heavy crude produced by Canada and Mexico to make gasoline and other fuels.

Some 40% of the crude oil processed at US refineries is imported, and Canada and Mexico — the No. 1 and No. 2 foreign suppliers of oil to the US, respectively — together deliver more than two-thirds of that oil.

Both Canada and Mexico expanded their oil exports in recent years after the first Trump administration imposed a de facto ban on imports from Venezuela. Refineries love the sludgy oil produced by Mexico and Canada both because it’s cheaper than lighter grades and because over the years they invested billions of dollars in equipment to squeeze more higher-value fuels, like jet fuel, out of the stuff.

The expanded story here, as I recall from past reading, is that in the past, US refineries expected to hit "peak oil" production in the US. That meant that (preferable) light, sweet crude oil, which is what a lot of US oil is, would become less-available, and one would have to resort to second-best options. They spent a lot of money upgrading their refineries to be capable of handling the (more-difficult-to-process) heavy, sour crude oil.

What actually wound up happening was that this prediction was wrong. Hydrofracking opened up access to a lot more crude oil, let US production increase, not decrease. So now US refineries have a ton of very expensive hardware to let them handle heavy, sour crude oil, but actually have a glut of light, sweet crude oil, for which this hardware is not necessary. So what the US oil industry wound up doing was shipping US-originating light, sweet crude to refineries abroad, places which could handle that, and then shipping foreign-originating heavy, sour crude oil into the US to let them make some return on that processing infrastructure.

So the US refining industry can process light, sweet oil if it has to do so. I don't know how that interacts with contractual obligations; it might be that they can't pivot on a dime. But...it isn't financially-optimal for them; they aren't making a return on their fancy refining infrastructure then. If they have to do so, I'd expect that to be reflected in higher gasoline prices, though I wouldn't expect US gasoline shortages.

Buy the ticket, take the ride!

I have family in MI that voted for the orange turd…just waiting for this to turn into an LAMF moment for them.