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Projections for when though?
- Sorry I had to do a ninja edit: the original post I stole this from didn't have the text on the image, but was rather a retweet of text post with this image (e.g., nested post)
I see, the meme makes a lot more sense now. I was like this isn’t a meme it’s just a map of the future of Florida lol.
That said this seems very extreme and exaggerated for 2075. Sea level rise is one of the slowest aspects of climate change. Generally the worst case is thought to be about 2 meters by 2100 which is significant but not enough to affect non-coastal areas.
For fun I did a quick check and based on GEBCO elevation data this looks like about 20m sea rise (I'm guessing exactly -- I assume whoever made the image picked a round number).
I could have posted what 2m looks like but at this scale it just looks like current Florida.
20m is if I remember correctly about what the melting of the greenland glacier will cause, which is pretty much locked in already. It will not be 2075 for sure, but probably this millenium.
I grew up a little south of Myakka. A meter rise still puts most of the area under some water. Half a meter put my childhood home in a shallow moat, since it was raised a bit from surroundings.
Maybe you're right, this won't be a full time map. But it definitely will be seasonal and difficult to live in
Oh to be clear 2 meters will absolutely devastate some areas. But it won’t look like entire counties inundated as we see in this map.
your edit was so stealthy if befuddled even the formatter
Right? I was wondering how I got a hanging indent. That could legit be useful
2075
And likely much earlier.
Due to the nature of science and how any predictions and projections it makes needs to be couched in exceedingly conservative tones, it has become a running gag in climate science that everything will happen “much sooner than expected”. Because invariably, it does. Sometime hundreds of years sooner than expected.
Hell, it was first thought that the AMOC wouldn’t collapse for centuries, and now more accurate projections put it as being sometime between 2025 and 2085, with a “most likely due date” of some time in the early 2050s. And this is still an exceedingly conservative estimate. Who wants to bet that it’ll happen much sooner than even that?
2025 is in less than 60 days. Much sooner than that would be like tomorrow.
2025 is in less than 60 days. Much sooner than that would be like tomorrow.
My last reference was the 2050s “most likely due date”. That is bound to get revised radically towards the present, as more data is collected.
And at the very least, that entire range is going to be compressed towards the present as well.
My understanding is we have evidence of slowdown but really don’t have the historical data to know when AMOC stops being driven, and it could take a century or two for the water to actually stop circulating.
Some outrage headlines have claimed it’s already collapsed and I don’t know if we have data to disagree with that