The Needle: Live 2024 Presidential Election Forecast

Follow our real-time estimates to see who’s ahead in the race between Kamala Harris and Donald J. Trump.

The New York Times predicts a Trump victory. The say the probability of a Trump victory is 90%.

Edit: Probability has dropped to 89% now, if that makes you feel better.

Edit: Now it’s 93%.

24 comments

Yeah I'm going to bed now, hate to say it but it's over. 4 more years of that fucking dipshit and his shenanigans.
- 4?
Well... looks like we're fleeing the country.
- Good luck to you. There is no escape if Trump wins.
  
  There's an escape from my daughter being put in a conversion therapy camp. That's my focus now.
Jesus Christ he might even actually have the popular vote.
Dear America: WTF
-sincerely, the rest of the world.
- I really didn’t think we had this many Nazis.
  
  I always knew we did, we just never empowered them as blatantly.
  
  What I didn't appreciate is how lazy the non-nazis among us were, I mean, wow.
Lol. At least Gaza is a parking lot now!
- Gaza? Was that an issue?
  
  Sorry, the only people who cared about Gaza are drunk and celebrating in st Petersburg right now.
  
  Maybe this attitude is why Democrats lost.
  
  Maybe the Democrats should have reached out to independent voters who were concerned about Gaza instead of accusing them all of being Russian agents.
Why would they bring back the needle? It was the worst thing of all 2016. It’s nothing but provoking anxiety and I can’t even go to the website as a result.

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