Lebanon’s Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib told CNN’s Christiane Amanpour that Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah had agreed to a 21-day ceasefire just days before he was assassinated by Israel.
Israel has had a scope on the head of every Arab and Persian peace activist in the region. The only folks who seem capable of surviving are the ones armed and willing to fight back.
A temporary ceasefire is the first stop to a permanent ceasefire.
If Israel wants to win militarily against Hezbollah, i'd say Gaza is a cautionary tale for that. Despite all of the destruction Hamas is weakened but nut destroyed and only very few hostages were freed by force (with insane numbers of Palestinian civillians killed while doing it). The vast majority of hostages was freed by negotiations.
John Mearsheimer said that military action is a very limited tool. We have seen this in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Vietnam...
In Afghanistan and Iraq we already knew that bombing people was not how you get rid of ideas. That's why we spent 20 and 10 years (respectively) in those countries. We weren't bombing anything if we could help it. And in Iraq we managed to put in a semi-stable government. In Afghanistan we managed to push the majority of the fighting into the mountains, away from most civilian population centers. We just straight screwed up the civil part afterwards.
We learned that bombing doesn't kill morale in World War 1, World War 2, Korea, and Vietnam. Vietnam is the last time we tried carpet bombing civilian populations, and is often cited as the reason we developed the guided bomb kits, small diameter bombs, and even kamikaze drones that specifically do not explode and cause as little disturbance as possible other than people they directly impact.
This has been a learned lesson with a known solution for decades.
Just like with Vietnam, it seems the measure of success is in blood. Since the population of Gaza has been decimated - quite literally 1 in 10 Palestinians are now dead and we're expecting tens to hundreds of thousands more dead before the end of next year due to famine and disease, nevermind war - while the Israelis report minimal casualties, they believe they are "winning".
We have seen this in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Vietnam…
The lesson of these wars to the political class is that they win reelections, they generate enormous profits, and they never seem to bother the median voter over the long term.
I don;t wish death on anyone even if I semi dislike them. But to me Hezbollah needs to be cut off like a heroin addicts arm from to much use. From growing up with the dipshits it seems to me that they and iran just wait for Israel to do something they don't like and fire missles at them. I feel sorry for people of Lebanon and don't think hurting civs should be the answer. But they put them in power. But and probably get get a lot of shit for me saying this. I have a I don't care attitude for whatever Israel does to Iran.
it seems to me that they and iran just wait for Israel to do something they don't like and fire missles at them
They don't wait to do anything. They hate Israel for what Israel has done to their Palestinian neighbors as well as to Lebanon and Iran. Hezbollah didn't just suddenly spring up out of nowhere. The group was literally founded to halt Israeli aggression. This is the only reason Israel hasn't occupied Lebanon and oppressed them the way they oppress the Palestinians.