If Trump loses in 2024, do you think he'll run again in 2028?
If Trump loses in 2024, do you think he'll run again in 2028?
I think he will, but there might be a real primary challenge.
Tbh, I hope so. I think the chances of his winning decline with every cycle that is a loss. But, his ability to split a vote is retained to some extent. So:
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if he runs as the GOP candidate again, he's more likely to lose. If the GOP is split about it, he's more likely to have a split vote due to another conservative candidate opting into the race on a third ticket (this may not happen, in which case, he's just less likely to win anyway due to previous losses, increased age, etc).
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if he isn't the GOP candidate but still runs, he's extremely unlikely to win but could be a crazy vote split.
I think any sane person would not run again. Trump might, though.
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He'll be dead by then. His father lived to 95 or something but Trump proudly admits he doesn't exercise and he eats like shit. The best healthcare in the world can only keep a guy like that alive for so long before a lifetime of bad habits catch up to him.
Fun fact: Trump once claimed the human body is akin to a battery, and that exercising only decreases our lifespan. I wish I was joking.
Running is necessary to collect donations so yes
I'm far more concerned about the rise of Nazism and Monarchism in the USA. Even if we never have a Republican in any governing office again and the country continues to move further and further left, America has a lot of work to do to ensure these forms of tyrrany are never even considered as a viable alternative to Democracy.
The fact that these forms of governance survive in the hearts and minds of people is an indicator of a larger and more complex societal failing that spans the entire history of America. This is not some strange short term flash in the pan of Nazism and Authoritarianism, it is an insidious and vile tradition passed down from generation to generation, and we have only staunched it's slow cancerous growth by publicly shaming those who voice these views publicly. Obviously this has proven ineffective.
I think a more important question than whether one particularly sad excuse for a sad sack of shit may run for president again, is how do we make sure the Trump dynasty, and all dynasties, fade into obscurity until the last remnants of their legacy is a footnote that indicates we lived in a time period when humans, due to many generations of hoisting up those with the most lust for power into positions of power, nearly destroyed themselves. How do we make that happen?
Doubt it, his decline in the last 8 years have been incredible. If he were a family member we would have been looking for professional help a long time ago.
Can't imagine he'd be able to remain aware of his surroundings in 2 more years
Even though I’d like him to drop off the face of the Earth, I kinda hope he does run. He’ll be even less coherent. His insane rambling will be worse. He’ll have to run as an independent, because Republicans won’t bet on a losing horse again - and he definitely would lose. It’ll be a major public humiliation, and he deserves as many of those as possible.
Whether he runs again is not the right question. The council for national policy, an extreme right organization, is behind trumpism, supreme court justices trump nominated, and project 2025 which has been around since Reagan era but with different names. They will choose a different candidate as their wrecking ball who is younger and as fiery, unethical, without principles and an "outsider" as trump represent. Whether it's JD Vance or someone else.
He'll either be in jail, in a home for dementia treatment, or defaulted on the half billion in Russian loans and accidentally fell out of a window. So my answer is a solid, no.
You think that thing, held together by duct tape and bobby pins, is living to 2028?
I mean, it's quite possible he'll be dead by then
He’ll be in prison or dead.
I think it's unlikely hell be alive in 2028. The problem is the people that support him now, will be. They'll try again and again to get the things they want passed. If it's not now, they're patient enough to wait. They won't stop unless they're forced by judicial action and these people are behind bars. It's not trump that's the biggest issue. It's the evil people behind him.
Will he be alive? Lol
I hope so. He'll likely run against Harris again, and assuming she doesn't tank the economy I don't see how he manages a win.
The longer he clings to power, the longer the GOP go without legitimate representation that isn't MAGA grifters. Looking at right-wing populism elsewhere across the world, you'll see that when the figurehead loses power they often don't have a successor lined up - and those that do end up in the shadow of the person that won't stop clinging to the idea that they are the "chosen one".
Yes.
His ability to make a career out of running for president is too lucrative to give up, sadly.
I don't see how he can live that long.
I doubt it. While some people think he'll be dead by then, I'm inclined to suspect not. However given his observed mental decline, I suspect that he'll be even less coherent 4 years from now. He's currently 78, and would therefore be 82 by then (birthday June 14th 1946). He's already got a number of age-related medical issues, such as needing to wear adult diapers and said mental decline.
Behind the scenes is be surprised if he didn't have some cardiac problems, even minor ones, and thus was on something for them, such as blood thinners or cholesterol meds. I don't know if it's been verified that he's on Ozempic, but he sure has lost a lot of weight lately and I don't think it's from exercising.
I do expect that he's never going to shut up though. If, hopefully, he loses this election, he's not going to just evaporate. People are still going to give a damn about what his opinion is and who he endorses, especially his cult of followers, but also the less overtly extreme conservatives.
As a general rule, cults built around a singular person, AKA cults of personality, tend to crumble into dust and fade into history once that personality is gone. However, some cults outlive that person because someone else is there to pick up the slack and reform things just enough to make a going concern of the cult. That's how Christianity started, that's how Protestantism started, and if you look into it, just about every other major, lasting "religion" that had branched off of the Christianity family tree. It also goes for political, cultural, and social movements, which can be cult-like without the religious aspect being an absolute requirement, although ir can be very strongly intertwined. I don't know where the Cult of Trump will go once old age finally catches up to him, I think it's likely that it'll be reabsorbed into christo-facism because the two feed off of each other pretty strongly.
Trump will ALWAYS be able to Run! He's the FASTEST runner! Some people say he should be in the Olympics at running but he's too nice to let those Younger Folks have all the Glory. Trump could be DEAD and his Legs will STILL be kicking and trying to Run right out of his Grave! He's in the BEST shape of ANYONE probably in the Entire World!
I feel like he'd just keep running until he wins and becomes a dictator or he dies.
If he loses he’ll be weaker than he’s been in a long time. I don’t see how he staves off the legal and political challenges he’ll be quickly inundated with. I think this election really means his survival or ruin.
He is going to need a lot of money to stay out of jail, so yes, he will keep running to fleece until the last cent out the cultists.
I seriously question his survival that long. But if he’s capable yes
They'll probably attempt an even more blatant coup than last time. If we're lucky it will be a shitshow and fail so miserably that it de-legitimizes the entire christofascist ideology and destroys the republican party for good.
First he'll make money claiming the election was stolen. Then he'll make money from this jury trials. Then he'll make money from reelection.
And be even older than Jobien when he does? All the "He's too old" T-shirts, will be in style again.
His ego will make him try over and over again. But I’m not sure if he can. Shithead is getting older and also his people started shooting at him. He probably won’t make it into a
thirdfourth election.yes and i'll be surprised if the gop manage to extricate him from their party
Good grief, he's too old now!
Action->Reaction.
Reaction against Obama put Trump in, right?
Reaction against Trump put Biden in, right?
I hope Harris wins, but the world-economy is being flushed, with exponential-force, down the sewer, & NO incumbent survives that kind of thing ( backlash-vote ),
AND as the book "The Big Sort" apparently explains, the cultural-segregation that mass-media push so hard creates intolerance.
Which, of course, when escalated by mass media of various alignments, keeps amplifying ( feedback-loops ) until .. genociding.
The locking-Anglos-out in Quebec ( we no longer have any access to goverment phone-services in English ) is simply an earlier stage of divide-and-genocide than whan the US is in, but .. it'll get there.
Whether unconsciously or consciously, the heads of Quebec are committed to turning Canada into another Russia/Ukraina, Israel/Palestine, Deep-South racism kind of thing, in a generation or 2, for whatever they win/gain in accomplishing that.
IF Trump doesn't win 2024, then Civil War begins in 2028, +/- a very-few months, & continues until the US is butchered-carrion.
It's far too late to save the US: the real problem is that Animals-and-Tribes-Time mode of Kahneman1 mind ( imprint->reaction ) has already successfully highjacked the country.
As .. Glubb, was it? realized, empires die at about 2.5-centuries.
There's a book "How to Hide an Empire" on the American Empire, so anybody who wants to pretend that all the machiavellian interventions ( remember when Iraq's intervention backfired, because they didn't want to be a puppet-state, & wanted self-determination? That was noticed openly in some news item or other, back then.. I'd not have clued-in to it, on my own, buth then, through the years.. there are puppets of lobbies, aren't there? & these lobbies work to enforce that accountability never get near them.. .. whatever: if humankind isn't viable, & Natural Selection extinguishes humankind, then humankind's herdbeast games, bullying & majority-domination, & minority-beaten/broken, same as in herds anywhere .. we were supposed to be upright-human, you know? if we failed The Great Filter, well, then too bad: we earn what we earn.. )
So, the identity of the ruling-class has sooo completely mismatched the actuality of the empire, now, that it's incapable of surviving.
Same as Rome, Britain's empire, etc..
12-13 generations, & .. kaput.
The Big ( cultural ) Sort seems to be the mechanism, but DarkHexad { narcissism / machiavelianism / sociopathy-psychopathy / nihilism / sadism } is cultivated, if not directly-grown, by privilege-caste, & .. well, that's a feedback-loop too, isn't it?
Concentration-of-privilege, concentration-of-wealth, which "says" "trickle-down economics", but is gaslighting..
which "says" "charity", but .. when you see that literally millions of DONATED $ are pocketed by the executives of the US's United Way .. that woke socialist feminist convicted-felon Yehoshua "Jesus" ( Iosa, in Roman/Latin, I've been told by an actual Roman-born person ) benJoseph already laced into fake-charity, 2 millenia ago..
Part of the problem is that it isn't a single problem: it's actually a fractal and chaotic anti-fragile/robust mesh of problems, which all mutually-reinforce..
Narcissism conserves "validity" & excludes all it can, to prove how "exclusive" its "validity" is, right? Anti-compassion. Sociopathy is .. exactly that, isn't it?
Feedback-loop..
How can "trickle-down economics", or "compassion for the privileged-caste/class's inferiors" ( note the contempt in their "charity".. I was born into the upper-middle-class, & it took 7+ years of accumulated homelessness for me to crack the identity-underlying-ego that that ideology/prejudice, as all "race", "class", & "gender" is, in social-process, enough for me to get to some kind of objective-honestly, more than a decade later.. )
The action->reaction cycle cannot be stopped, postponed, or prevented: US of A is finished.
I hope that Kamala Harris makes this last "calm before the storm" be as spiritually-thriving as she can, enforcing an increase in state-integrity, against lobbies' undermining of everything, but it doesn't change the pogrom/tantrum that'll destroy about 2/3 of the US's population in .. approximately 7y from when it begins ( that is just one of the natural human-cycles, because it's a cycle that our unconscious-mind "works" at: it's too "stuck" to work quicker.. )
You know how sometimes you have a grandparent or relative or friend or other-family, someone whom you really care about, & cancer/whatever's killing them?
& there's nothing you can do??
Objectively, that's what's happening with the US: it's fatal, it's implacable, only our relationship with its process, & outcome, & the way we make the process enact, can we change..
We can't prevent the death.
We can't prevent the reaping of the consequences of our previous-generations' "sowing" carelessness in education, or in accommodating the "surrender" ( technical-only, not honest/total ) of the KKK/Confederates, who've now done to much of the country exactly what McDonnell Douglass's beancounter-culture did to Boeing ( a "reverse takeover" )..
What has been sown, is going to be reaped, to use the Christian rendition of what the older religions call "karma".
end of Part 1, as the Lemmy character-count blocked my commenting with the whole thing in a single entry..
Even if he could (somehow) I'd doubt it - a lot of people seem to completely ignore the fact that the far-right critters simply isn't coming out of the woodwork for Trump now in the same way that they did in 2016. The reason for that is simple - Trump dropped them like a rotten potato the minute he walked into the Waffle House pretty much at the same time they were being beaten in the streets by antifa. They know that Trump is not their boy.
He still has his core of MAGAs, of course - but without the neo-nazis and the KKK doing their little "sturm-und-drang" schtick for Trump in the streets, Trump is going to be less of a "Great White Hope" and more "Great Orange Farce"... and this would be far worse for Trump in 2028 than it is now.