2d ago

Bernstein Posits That A 10 Percent Baseline US Tariff On Raw Semiconductors Is "Not Going To Do All That Much," But PCs, Servers, And Smartphones Are About To Get Pricier By ~40 Percent

Trump's Liberation Day: Bernstein Posits That A 10 Percent Baseline US Tariff On Raw Semiconductors Is "Not Going To Do All That Much," But PCs, Servers, And Smartphones Are About To Get Pricier By ~40 Percent

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He certainly running the country into the ground like one of his businesses
- Not just any businesses either, he bankrupted a casino... TWICE
  It takes a special kind of stupid to bankrupt a fucking casino, twice
  
  He failed to sell alcohol and beef to Americans
  The only thing harder to do is to fail at selling sub-prime mortgages before the 2008 recession
  which he also did
  
  That was with very clear money laundering too.
  
  How do you bankrupt a casino while also running a money laundering scheme and still fail? Someone should turn his life into a movie it'd be like anti breaking bad
  
  Yeah but what’s the moral to the story? Keep failing over and over again and you’ll end up being the most powerful man in the world twice? Not a story that can be told without realising that the world is corrupt cesspool.
  
  Bankruptcy is a strategy at the corporate level.
  
  https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2015/sep/21/carly-fiorina/trumps-four-bankruptcies/
- This is actually kind of funny. Because his first term is more or less considered successful in financial circles, (COVID aside). But the entire time he was fighting with aides, bureaucrats, etc... who kept either getting in his way or talking him out of his crazy or stupid ideas. Now he's removed all the safeties and we're getting full Trumpism with all the horrible financial decisions it brings.
  
  He wasn't successful at anything.
  He slashed the corporate income tax and due to an effective amnesty on repatriation many large MNCs brought stashed offshore cash and cut R&D to register massive earnings for his last 2 years.
  Ironically, this started to dry up right around Q1 2020... Then COVID drowned out everything.
  His response was to just pump $4T to employers with almost no documentation, thank god we didn't see a massive wave in inflation out of that.
  
  lets not forget browbeating the fed to drop interest rates before covid hit.
  
  Okay this post reeks of not understanding basic accounting. Bringing back cash doesn’t affect profits for firms. The earnings were already earned. Having money over seas and bringing it on shore does not increase your profits, it just frees it up for investment (or giving to shareholders).
  Also cutting R&D does not change profits in the short term. Any amount of R&D doesn’t change profits in the short term (either less or more). R&D is treated as an asset and depreciates over time (which does affect profits) but that’s clearly not what you’re saying here.
  The rest of your post I’m not arguing with but your understanding of accounting and how offshore money works is factually incorrect.
  
  https://www.bea.gov/news/2019/direct-investment-country-and-industry-2018
  The TCJA generally eliminated taxes on dividends, or repatriated earnings, to U.S. multinationals from their foreign affiliates. Dividends of $776.5 billion in 2018 exceeded earnings for the year, which led to negative reinvestment of earnings, decreasing the investment position for the first time since 1982. Tables 3 and 4 provide information on the country and industry breakdown of dividends.
  By country, nearly half of the dividends in 2018 were repatriated from affiliates in Bermuda ($231.0 billion) and the Netherlands ($138.8 billion). Ireland was the third largest source of dividends, but its value is suppressed due to confidentiality requirements. By industry, U.S. multinationals in chemical manufacturing ($209.1 billion) and computers and electronic products manufacturing ($195.9 billion) repatriated the most in 2018.
  
  Right and at no point are you saying that earnings/profits were impacted by the tax amnesty and money being brought back on shore.
  Your link says that the most predictable thing happened- all that money sitting over seas was given back to its owners (shareholders).
  Absolutely none of this affected profits for that year. Mind you, that money was not being used for R&D anyways - it was sitting in bank accounts or bonds waiting for a moment like this to come back and be handed out to shareholders.
  
  That's literally what I'm saying.
  Are you being semantic?
  They realized the revenue as dividends, which is exactly what the link says.
  
  thank god we didn’t see a massive wave in inflation out of that.
  Where are you that hasn't seen massive inflation since COVID?
  
  I think that was the joke.
  
  Markets will still consider it a win if Trump does not else good in the next 4 years except for extend the "tax cuts and jobs" billionaire and corporate handouts. He seems to be failing at that and DOGE has only made it harder in for Congress (in a budgetary sense) for them to do it.
  
  Markets will still consider it a win if Trump does not else good in the next 4 years except for extend the “tax cuts and jobs” billionaire and corporate handouts.
  Of the Top 10 most profitable companies in the world 8 of them are American. Those 8 companies lost enough Market Capitalization in the last 24 hours to fund a mid-sized Country. "The Markets" are not fucking happy at all.
  
  Trump is making more enemies in business than the most liberal of democrat presidents could ever do. That's impressive.

68 comments