US Election Day November 2024 Containment Megathread
US Election Day November 2024 Containment Megathread
put all of your election posting here so it doesn't bother anyone else!
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I'm genuinely wondering a bit if pollsters are so terrified of losing their legitimacy any further that they're decided to just weigh the polls to roughly 50/50. Like they do have to do some math to try to guess what demographics are less likely to answer polls or whatever but after 2016 and 2020 the process probably looks insane.
It does seem like people are becoming less confident in wizards and prognosticators this time around.
I was wondering the same thing (especially with Nate Bronze), although it's probably because so many of the swing state polls have been within margin of error that it's really not possible to make a definitive prediction beyond a coin flip.