Polls don't matter in this instance. Look at the state record, which shows a modest progressive lean on statewide and municipal politics and a moderate conservative lean on federal politics.
I definitely don't expect the Bible thumping deep south to flip, hell im not even sure i expect this ballot measure to pass. but the down ballot races will definitely be where it helps
I do, and while it's not as deep as some I still consider it to caucus with a lot of the red hell holes on average based on its legislature and voting history.
First, missouri is very clearly and well known as "midwest".
Second, it leans republican, but it's fairly purple. Dem presidential nominee pretty much always gets at least 40% of the vote, and over the past 50 years it's 6 and 6 on dem vs republican governors.