Unemployment is at the lowest rate for 30 years and wages are rising.. that's actually part of what's driving inflation. Annualized growth this year is expected to hit an astonishing 6%. In July new orders for manufacturing hit their highest level in 9 months. Construction is doing well and consumer spending is way up. Nothing points even remotely to a recession.
Using the stock market to measure a recession has to account for continually rising rates at which money is rented. If you can see pretty massive cases of consumer level inflation while businesses struggle, you already have a hole money is leaving.
Watching the evergrande saga unwind over the course of years should give an idea to the extent of run time it will take to see results, especially when it is in the interest of investors to prop up value.
Gross domestic product is expected to grow 8.3% this year, from 1.9% in 2021, according to a Bloomberg survey of five economists. The country is getting a lift from a rise in oil production and seeing tax revenue and banking credit expand, which suggests domestic demand is rising.