Fraudulent 2025 Presidential Elections in Poland? Analysis of Commission Results and Swap of Seats

Analysis of data from five electoral commissions reveals an unnatural increase in support for Karol Nawrocki between the first and second round of the election – his result increased by 2,407 votes, which is almost a four-fold increase. At the same time, Rafał Trzaskowski recorded practically no increase in the same polling stations – and even lost 147 votes. Such a discrepancy, especially with the dynamic campaign and high mobilisation of the electorate of both candidates, raises serious doubts. Statistically, such a strong change in one direction with no movement on the part of the competitor is highly unlikely. This may indicate both a serious error in the preparation of the minutes and a deliberate action. If similar irregularities occurred in a larger number of commissions, their impact on the election result could have been real. Internet users appeal for an immediate analysis of all the minutes and a reaction from Rafał Trzaskowski's campaign, the State Electoral Commission and the relevant law enforcement agencies.