‘New era’: Tusk celebrates exit polls suggesting opposition win in Poland
‘New era’: Tusk celebrates exit polls suggesting opposition win in Poland
Poland should see official election results from Monday but exit polls suggest an end to eight years of nationalist rule
Awesome. It took way too long for Poland to Piss this one out. Poland legit looked brain drained at one point. Hopefully this is a sign of bounce back and polish taking back control of their country.
Pis still got the most votes though. They just can’t form a coalition because another right wing party didn’t get enough votes and another one don’t want to work with them anymore. If the Tusk coalition fucks up even a bit PiS will be back in power next election.
Forming coalition is what matters. Multiparty democracies don't hand out medals for just being biggest. Usually all it gets you is first shot at forming government, which in this case by this moments estimate will fail.
It exactly matters who is and isn't willing to work with you. In coalition democracies that is the most important thing. Depending on situation "we won't work with you" stuff is decades lasting red lines or feuds.
Plus of course every government is only as good as their last terms governing. One is always at risk of losing the next election, if one messes up.
May this signal a global turn around.
Nationalism is like strong licquor: only good in very small quantities.
Unfortunately it comes just after Slovaks put a pro-russian-imperalism mafia-friendly and democracy-averse corrupt nationalist in charge of the country - in coalition with a far-right party that is so unconcerned with disguising their fascism that they are only one swastika away from co-opting all the Nazi symbolism.
We're in an increasingly polarised world, not a turnaround. Many parties elect both extremists. This will only get worse with climate change exacerbating resource-depletion, economic downturn and migration.
This is going to garner me a lot of criticism but at this moment, although I recognize your points as valid and worthy of reflection, the more I think about it, the more I think we are being fed a tale of fear to keep us busy.
As it is, we already produce more than what we require. The population is on the brink of comencing a decline. And there are already scientists arguing for reduction of food production; as it is, aproximately 1/3 of all of it is wasted even before reaching the end of the chain.
We recycle more than ever and it is something we will only see mounting. Energy production is going to see a sharp turn in a very short term horizon.
Migration always existed but it is so tiresome to listen the "undeveloped" countries will "colonize" the "developed" counterparts. As if those countries are not trying to evolve as we speak.
I don't have a crystal ball but things seem more bleak than they truly are. Unforeseen events will cause drastic and fast change.
This coalition is made up of centre left to centre right parties. I hope they will fare better than the ruling coalition here in Germany, which is also centre left to centre right. Our coalition has the issue that whatever they do, some voters are gonna be pissed and unfortunately support for them has tanked. I would hate for pis to win again next election.
The situation in Poland is really not comparable to that of Germany. The far-right party which has held power for almost a decade has been undermining the rule of law and democratic institutions, to the point where this election was an existential question for Polish democracy.
Sure, it's annoying if Germany will go right back to decades of CDU rule, but it's not exactly an existential threat to its democracy. The situation in Poland is more comparable to if AFD had ruled by majority for eight years, gotten rid of judicial independence and undermined the independence of the media, and now finally lost the election to parties who are dedicated to preserving democracy. It is, of course, not exactly like that either, but it's more comparable.
So there's reason to celebrate - even if everything here on out is completely dysfunctional, it's still a gigantic victory for democracy in Europe.
Not saying you're wrong - I'm just not sure the comparison makes sense. :)
Of course it's a huge victory. I'm just afraid that if some key issues aren't handled to the voters' satisfaction (be it left leaning or right leaning voters) they will be disappointed in this coalition and again turn to pis or other, fringe parties which would give pis more power again. We have seen so often, not only in Germany, how people vote for a party solely because of one single issue and if you have to trade off some of your democratic systems to reach that goal that's a sacrifice they're willing to make.
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these are partial election results, they got it only when some 20-25% of electoral circuits were counted up. this means villages and small towns mostly and it skews results in favour of PiS
late polls looked like this: PiS 36,6% (198) KO 31,0% (161) TD 13,5% (57) Lewica 8,6% (30) Konfederacja 6,4% (14)
needs 231 for majority, most probable coallition is KO + TD + Lewica at 248 seats
looking at how partial election results change, PiS might get even less than that, maybe even as low as 33-34% which would place them much closer to KO a bit north to 31%. this is my rough guesstimate only