2w ago

A Carney disaster scenario shower thought

I did support Carney and I hope he does good things, and I don't think the following scenario would occur but I realize this belief is entirely based on my judgement of Carney's character which could be wrong.

I was thinking about the proposed gas pipeline to the east coast. If Carney hopes to be re-elected, he can't ram a pipeline through Quebec using emergency powers if such exist. Or he'd lose his seats in QC. Instead he's gotta give significant concessions to QC, like ownership, high royalties, etc. Stuff that he and Blanchet can sell to the Quebecers. I think this is certainly possible for a gas pipeline.

But then the following disaster scenario occurred to me. He likely has significant Brookfield investments in that blind trust. He likely has a seat open on that board whenever he quits public service. What if he uses emergency powers to ram a whole bunch of infrastructure, through P3s, where the private partner retains ownership, and the partner is Brookfield. Do as many of those as possible, get kicked out of office and sit on Brookfield's board, that much richer, while we get saddled with an even angrier and vindicated CPC fascism.

Thoughts?

Edit: Thanks for wading into my election PTSD nightmare!

26 comments

What makes you believe any of this is in the realm of possibility?
- That's what United States citizens have been saying for forty? Years. We just keep shrugging each time something happens and move the goalposts.
  
  Whatever you say.
- That I don't see anything making it impossible or even too difficult, if they get a majority which is still possible. And that Carney has incentive to do it. If the NDP holds power, they could intervene.
  
  This is flawed logic with no substance to back it up.

Thought it worth going through and pointing out the logical flaws in the disaster scenario.
Mainly, there are a number of false premises involved.
He likely has significant Brookfield investments in that blind trust.
We don't know that. More importantly, he doesn't know that. A blind trust is supposed to be blind, which means that he doesn't know if these have since been sold and replaced.
Without knowing that the blind trust does in fact own the investments to any particular degree of certainty, the odds of a move to benefit Brookfield specifically at the expense of others is reduced, probably significantly so.
He likely has a seat open on that board whenever he quits public service.
I'm not sure how much Brookfield would be influenced by public opinion, but if Carney actually did this, he'd likely suffer greatly in terms of public opinion. Usually companies pay attention to this because failing to do so can hurt their pocketbooks (think things like public boycotts, such as folks refusing to buy gas at gas stations that are fueled by the pipeline).
What if he uses emergency powers to ... [get] ... that much richer
I can't cite an authority on this but I strongly suspect that this would not be legal. And while I'm really uncertain about what legal remedies might ensure in this case, I strongly suspect both disgorgement and significant jail time would be on the table. And of course, being found a criminal by the Courts of Canada would make it that much harder for Brookfield to offer Carney that spot on the board.
Considering how much personal risk Carney may take on in doing this, I think this significantly reduces the chances he'd attempt this, even if he were inclined to do so (which hasn't been demonstrated imho).
while we get saddled with an even angrier and vindicated CPC
This one displays a clear logical error - that of non sequiturs and false dichotomy. It doesn't automatically follow that, even if all of the above happened, that the CPC would be able to follow and push its current agenda. What if sympathy for Quebec after all this is so strong that PQ ends up with the leading role in a new coalition? Or former Liberals flee to the NDP, reviving it and granting it a majority?
Perhaps even the CPC may be so disgusted by this that they have a change of heart and reform. (I mean it's a hypothetical possibility.)
- Also, wouldn't a minority Liberal government be risking a no-confidence vote for being so heavy handed?
  
  Yeah, in a minority quite possibly. Unless the NDP is so weak and broke they can't afford an election. I was thinking about a majority scenario since there was still a path to it. That said Milton East-Halton Hills South and Nunavut resolved to CPC and NDP so I don't think a majority is possible anymore.
- Yeah, most of that makes sense. Thanks!
  while we get saddled with an even angrier and vindicated CPC
  This one displays a clear logical error - that of non sequiturs and false dichotomy. It doesn’t automatically follow that, even if all of the above happened, that the CPC would be able to follow and push its current agenda. What if sympathy for Quebec after all this is so strong that PQ ends up with the leading role in a new coalition? Or former Liberals flee to the NDP, reviving it and granting it a majority?
  I'm thinking about this as with the rest of the scenario inductively, and omitting some assumptions. All of what you suggest are plausible/likely possibilities, for sure. What makes me think that a strong CPC outcome is likely is that there was data from the weekend showing that CPC without a leader handily sweeps the election. So I assume they change PP for someone more likeable which puts them in a much stronger position, therefore likely to win if the Carney gov't doesn't execute well.
  
  What makes me think that a strong CPC outcome is likely is that there was data from the weekend showing that CPC without a leader handily sweeps the election. So I assume they change PP for someone more likeable which puts them in a much stronger position, therefore likely to win if the Carney gov’t doesn’t execute well.
  That's fair. But my point was that the new person they swap in could be someone who remakes the CPC into a more centrist or even leftist party. (Perhaps even someone who was a former Liberal Party member.) Not saying that's likely, just that it's another possibility that prevents the disaster scenario... (as opposed to someone like Danielle Smith taking the reins, which the disaster scenario requires).
  All of what you suggest..
  Yep, ditto. Sounds like we're pretty much in agreement here.

Man, if you think he's an openly corrupt grifter like that, you really held your nose this election.
- trust in government and politicians is pretty low rn
- That's the thing, I don't, but what do I have to base that on? I've listened to him very carefully during interviews, pressers, read analyses of his books and from all that I do believe he's not that kind of corrupt grifter. But all that is judgement of character which isn't always reliable. On the other hand being a con man is the assumed default with PP so...
  
  He also has a track record of not taking the money and running while in charge of two central banks. I don't know what he's like in private (besides quite religious, which I've heard mentioned) but most people get into politics because they want to call the shots as opposed to get rich. I'm personally expecting he'll just do that.

What in the fever dream is this?
- A fever dream. 😂

What?

eh. There's growing support for pipelines. A smart PM would move fast (probably amending bill C-69, because he said he wouldn't repeal it), and offer lots of goodies to sweeten the pot.

I think it’s worth pointing out that the LPC is not really in a good place, even if they did win the election and formed a minority government. People were frustrated with them, and we know this from earlier polls, the popular vote, particularly on the fact that the CPC is right on their tail, and the fact that too many of the ridings were extremely close calls (yes there’s vote splitting, but I’d say that’s only one factor in the CPC’s huge surge). If Carney does anything funny, it doesn’t just cost him his political career, it would wipe out the LPC in the next election, and may even effectively paralyze the political centre and left for years to come (given that we now have a much weakened NDP, and only 1 Green seat). People in the LPC should be aware of this, or at least I hope they do, cause it will most likely be the end of most of their political careers.
So I believe there’s pressure within the LPC to keep Carney in check.
Sure, he could blindside literally everyone and do things that would benefit Brookfield, but there’s no guarantee that it would actually benefit himself due to the blind trust. Carney would become a pariah to Canadians, and make people even angrier at Brookfield, which may, in turn, even if not immediately, hurt their bottom line. We haven’t even gotten to the legal battles that will ensue. Carney would have to be pretty stupid to make that kind of gamble, compared to actually just working normally as a politician and get his pension and live ultra-comfortably. But, we do have lots of dumb politicians that would do that, all over the world, so it’s an understandable worry. Just look at recent kleptocratic episodes, and how a good chunk of these kleptocrats barely served jail time and/or paid back what they’ve stolen.
- Yeah, this is an important part of the picture. Anything but really good execution with tangible results from the new government would likely be faced with a con win in the following election. Especially if the CPC replace PP with someone less unlikable. Even the typical level of grift and incompetence may be enough. I think the situation is similar in this regard to Kathleen Wynne's first election but the stakes are higher. If there are serious fuckups a wipeout is likely as you said.

Someone else has correctly addressed the nonsense in OPs post. I will add that oil to churchill for northwest passage to europe might work. Then only nat gas needs to go across Canada, a much safer option. Both of these are only for meeting domestic needs and ending foreign dependence, and then to assist our alkies in europe get off russian fossil fuels faster.

26 comments