4w ago

Predictions thread

Free form predictions, imaginary internet points awarded for being closest on seat count, popular vote, turnout, etc. Predict whatever you want! Timestamps before 8pm Atlantic time please :)

13 comments

I predict that no matter the outcome the family group chat will continue to be “liberal this, liberal that”.
- "liberal lost decade" or not that bad?

Libs with 180. Cons 130. BQ 24. NDP 8. Greens 1.
Libs 41%. Cons 40%. NDP 8%. BQ 6%. Others 5%.
Turnout 68%.
- Turnout 68%.
  Gosh, that would be something.
  
  Historical turnouts: https://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=ele&dir=turn&document=index&lang=e
  I think 68% was damned close -- and similar to what we got in 2015.
  However, I underestimated how much this election would turn into a two-party election (both the liberals and conservatives had higher popular vote than I expected). And overestimated the liberal vote efficiency being able to translate that into seats.
- Libs at 160 and cons at 138 right now not too bad.

Libs: 170, NDP: 5, the rest undefined
- That would be kind of funny. The NDP would be able to prop up a minority again for up to four years. Would give them some legislative power without official party status...
  
  And it would probably mean Jagmeet stays and therefore another bad election after that. I want Jagmeet gone. 😞 PP too.
- Damn, this is pretty close eh :)
  
  Fuck me. I just came to this. I did not want it to be this close. 😆

Liberals will get about 180 seats and form a majority government
Poilievre will not step down as Conservative leader

13 comments