Mainstreet polling, updated Mar 24
| Party | Seats | % | Change in Seats | Majority Probability | Minority Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 192 | 44.4% | +39 | 93.2% | 6.3% |
| Conservative | 118 | 37.8% | -1 | 0.1% | 4.1% |
| Bloc | 26 | 6.3% | -7 | 0% | 0% |
| New Democrat | 6 | 6.7% | -19 | N/A | N/A |
| Green | 1 | 1.4% | -1 | N/A | N/A |
| People's | 0 | 2.7% | -2.2% | N/A | N/A |
The long term warning is that if the LPC wins a majority and fails to reasonably address housing or general living costs we'll be back in this same position next cycle.
My hope is for a minority LPC government with either BQ or NDP forcing them away from neoliberalism - if that fails it's a long shot that Carney will turn his back on neoliberal economics... but Canada (and the world really) are at the breaking point from neoliberalism and we'll either gracefully correct or fall closer to authoritarianism and violence.
We need change - and we only have so many chances before a fucker like PP wins an election based on economic discontent and fucks us forever.
Edit: Just to be super clear - fuck the conservatives. I in no way desire them to end up in government and my statement comes from a place of rejecting anti-trans hate and embracing a sane environmental response to climate change.
Yep, this is where I am too.
I'm annoyed at having to vote Liberal, to be honest, but I hope this election makes it clear that cozying up to American populists is a losing strategy in Canada.
I would have to think if the polls are right and the liberals manage to win a majority, the conservatives would have to do some real soul searching.
They'll just get angrier and play dirtier. That will be the result of their soul searching.
Conservatives would rather abandon democracy than conservatism
I'd love it if the Conservatives fielded a moderate, Joe Clark-style candidate. I'd be able to go through an election cycle without losing sleep for once.
Maybe we'll get lucky and Carney will finally have enough government and provincial support to drop FPTP on federal elections.
That's true.
Unfortunately we have no real ability to microtarget the result between a minority and majority. With FPTP small changes in the popular vote in the 35-40% range produce drastic changes in seat numbers.
A possible side effect from a massive Liberal majority would be that the CPC is likely to split like it did in the past with Reform splitting from the PCs. In such a scenario, the next election would have a lot more room for a renewed NDP or something else to take votes from the LPC because the CPC won't automatically win due to vote split.
It seems possible to avoid PP. Keep pushing.
Wow. What a stunning collapse of support for PP! This poll puts the Libs chances of winning at 99.5% vs. 4.2% for the Cons. Even this polling average has their chances at 78% and still trending upward. Just polling/keep pushing (etc) but this seems like it's Carney's to lose at this point.
Really sucks that the NDP is at risk of losing official party status though.
Well maybe they won't stick with a dog shit leader next time. Honestly, they need better leadership in that party. Other than Charlie Angus, who in that party has any credibility? I don't even know anybody else in that party federally.
Carney was born of humble beginnings, is an exceptional academic, knows how to create strong partnerships with like-minded countries, can be strong and assertive while remaining diplomatic and has a good track record for being competent and effective.
He's like the polar opposite of Trump and it is why people flocked to him. People are now disgusted by Trump and anything that resembles him (PP).
Glad to see the conservatives fall, sad to see the NDP drop.
I'm so glad to see this. pp is such a disgusting weasel who would sell us out for his own gain. Danielle Smith, Premiere of Alberta, said this about him:
“So I would think that there’d be, there’s probably still always going to be areas that are skirmishes or disputes about particular industries when it comes to the border, but I would say, on balance, the perspective that Pierre would bring would be very much in sync with, I think…the new direction in America,” she added. “And I think we’d have a really great relationship for the period of time they’re both in.”
Emphasis mine.
Wow rip ndp
People have given up on NDP. Wow.
I think it's more about this moment than people giving up on the NDP long term. It's probably more ABC than anti-NDP. Many see PP as a threat to the country, or least much less able to address the current crisis, so they're aligning with the best chance to defeat him.
Sorry to call you out like this, but what a ridiculous interpretation. That is absolutely not what is happening. This is purely an artifact of FPTP being a useless system.
That's a significant factor but Jagmeet being a lib-light is also a contributor. He has to go. We need someone with bold, populist, unashamedly left ideas.
Anyone have some free time over the next couple of weekends? Somebody needs to take over and rebuild the Green Party of Canada.
Elizabeth May, is that you?
It would help if they had any science in their platform. A "green" party that is anti-nuclear might as well be pro-global-warming.
Yup, let's not pull a Germany.
I'm pretty sure they dropped their anti-nuclear stance.
But this election is about Canadian sovereignty. Unfortunately, smaller parties will be pushed out for now so that sovereignty can be protected. Once we keep the country and take steps to diversify away from the US, and the CPC kicks out the crazies, we can boot the Liberals and maybe the other small parties (left and right) will be inclined to work together on something groundbreaking, like electoral reform.
i am glad to see the drop in support of PP, but at the same time it is still scary that they are still polling 37% at this point.
how much bad things need to happen in order for Conservative voter to SEE it!! only -1 seat??
com'on. can we tell them that Trump is so gonna make fun of us with a PM called "PP"..
on the other hand, sad to see NDP is dropping.. i was hoping they will pull up too.. but man .. -19 is huge! I was really hoping NDP will pull up and pass Bloc at least..
let's hope the trend will get better in the coming 30 days or so.