What will be the impact of a North American trade war?

For its retaliation, Canada has went through serious work to select specific products and industries to impose tariffs on that will have the maximum political impact on the US while minimizing damage to Canadians.

Meanwhile Trump just went 25 percent on everything expect for energy with no additional thought given. He looks like a complete amateur.

What industries will be hit? Carmakers, food producers and construction — all of which rely heavily on cross-border trade — are among the industries likely to be worst affected. The US auto industry, particularly the traditional “Big Three” of Ford, General Motors and Stellantis, spread manufacturing over all three countries on the continent. US automotive suppliers also make goods in Mexico, from seats to axles. About 16 per cent of the value of a US-made car is derived from work done in Mexico or Canada. Carmakers with operations in Mexico and Canada will be faced with either absorbing the cost or raising prices for consumers. The import tax could give a competitive boost to South Korean and Japanese carmakers selling in the US market, said Daniel Roeska, an analyst at Bernstein. Food imports from both Canada and Mexico will be heavily affected. The US imported more than $45bn in agricultural products from Mexico in 2023, according to the US agriculture department, including strawberries, raspberries, tomatoes and beef. Another $40bn came from Canada, including beef, pork, grains, potatoes and canola. Construction materials will also face pressure, with about a third of softwood lumber used in the US imported from Canada. Canada and Mexico combined also account for over a fifth of US cement imports. “Much of the cost increase caused by tariffs will be passed on to US consumers,” said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING. 

What was left out? The Canadian oil industry was spared the worst of Trump’s tariffs, being carved out for a 10 per cent levy, as the White House sought to limit the inflationary impact on US motorists.  The US relies heavily on crude imports to feed its refineries, with about 40 per cent of the crude refined in the country coming from abroad — of that, 60 per cent comes from Canada and 11 per cent from Mexico. A significant rise in the cost of crude imports would be felt at the pump. Chet Thompson, head of the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a refining industry group, said he hoped a deal was “quickly reached” to end all tariffs on the industry “before consumers feel the impact”. Saturday’s announcement made no mention of the EU, but Trump said the previous day he “absolutely” planned to target the bloc with new levies in the future. “We’ll be doing something very substantial with the European Union,” he said.