Bulletins and News Discussion from December 9th to December 15th, 2024 - Assad Must Go

As long as Brazil remains the biggest player willing to throw its weight around like with Venezuela? Possibly. Brazil doesn't care about Peru/Ecuador/Chile. Only Mercosur countries, and Venezuela, possibly Bolivia are relevant.

I know I'm repeating it but the Venezuela-BRICS-Brazil issue is not over imo. It will re-appear if Lula decides to try to "man up" as a nationalist again.

For Brazil-Venezuela though I think nothing fundamentaly changed in recent years and Brazil is still very much influenced by US interests, specialy through the financial markets which in turn is the characteristic Brazilian "advantage" given it is among the world's highest interest rates. Brazil is a rentier capitalist economy.

BRICS can't change this because China themselves benefit from these agricultural imports/industrial exports duality. Of course BRI is the biggest driver for China to grow their influence too, Chinese capital needs other destinations besides the US, this is all the BRI is for, altruistic reasons or not, China got a lot of money and they can't keep just buying US bonds and stuff(this was long discussed before)

I think China could and should pressure for Venezuela's sake. But at the same time Brazil is an important partner and alternative so its tough to see either China/Russia making a favor for Venezuela.

How much you put into this source is up to you, imo its pretty accurate in this quote The Great Balancing Act: Lula in China and the Future of U.S.-Brazil Relations

On the other hand, Brazil uses China’s champion of the Global South narrative to seek a more active position in shaping global governance in an emerging multipolar world. However, there is a fine line between using the relationship with China to counter historical diplomatic and economic dependency on the United States, and outright bandwagoning on Beijing’s vision for a new international order. There is also concern growing among some Brazilian foreign policy analysts and officials that, if left unchecked, the growing relationship with China might lead not to strategic autonomy, but dependency. The unbalanced nature of bilateral trade raises important questions in this sense. Points of Tension

Despite the developing relationship, there are important bilateral points of tension. Brazil’s main grievance is the unbalanced nature of bilateral trade. Brazil’s exports to China are concentrated in mineral and agricultural commodities, mainly soybean and iron ore. Meanwhile, Brazil imports mainly high value-added manufactured goods from China.

In a broader sense, Brazil sees its relationship with China to increase desperately needed investment in the country’s economy and place it on a sustainable economic footing—investments of a kind that the United States has not been able to furnish. Lula’s other mission in this visit was to increase productive Chinese investment and innovation in Brazil, too. While China has increased its level of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Brazil, the United States is still the top provider, investing almost $200 billion in 2022—four times as much as China. And unlike trade with China, 55 percent of Brazilian exports to the United States in 2022 were high value-added manufactured goods, which add more jobs to the economy and contribute to stable revenue streams.

Yes that is from 2023 and yes Lula talked with Xi recently and signed more deals, how relevant is this given the current neoliberal attack succesfuly destroying Lula's government? You tell me.

Again the reason these sources are valid is they're not just reporting on what leftists think, but what Brazilian capitalists think and they have an influence on FP. If Brazilian capitalists are worried Lula is too pro China then he may well continue to balance this act.

I could argue there is an industrial dependency case here too since this US money is just buying Brazilian bonds and earning one of the highest interest rates in the world etc.

Americans were taking USD loans in Japan and then buying Brazilian assets and bonds.

Graph 3 shows how the differential between the nominal interest rates of Mexico, Brazil, Colombia and Japan grew from 2021 onwards. The differential grew first for Brazil, then Mexico, and finally Colombia, which showed its attractiveness to international investors. The spread has allowed yields of up to 10.25% in Brazil, 10.50% in Mexico and 11.50% in Colombia through "Carry Trade".

On the balance between attracting US investment(dollars) while necessitating an open relationship with China for agricultural exports is a real undeniable issue.

So how what is the path forward? I can't say anything other than the strength to resist Trump's desire to fuck with Venezuela is tough to imagine given Lula got his own an election to worry about.

To be quite honest, unless you give an example I can't answer.

But as for Brazil imagine the China situation a decade ago with all their air polution in Beijing yeah? One of the great challenges for China has always been dealing with enviromental issues, but their state control allowed them to handled it. As much as capitalists don't like it China, they have to abide by CPC environmental rules. Praise dengism when it works! And it did there.

This is vastly different from the current situation in the Amazon and Brazil. I'm sure you know of the Bolsonaro government horros so that is not even the point but rather the structural issue of Brazilian environmental issues that is very related to the much needed and much fought for land agrarian reform. Again here the difference between China and Brazil are obvious yeah? China solved this issue in the 20th century, Brazil did not.

Brazilian land is still vastly in control of hereditary capitalist groups and large families that date all the way back to colonial era.

I wont go too much in depth here but the context of land reform is key because most of the amazon deforestation, most of the land used for cattle and farming for exports, sometimes obtained illegaly and in direct armed confrontation with the federal government.

The best example of this is the very recent historicaly castastrophic forest fires. First I'll give you what the westerners are saying yeah?

The hypothesis that criminals are piggybacking on climate change needs more study, Lima said. But there is some evidence for it. One clue is that the conservation area that has suffered the most damage is Jamanxim National Forest. Dozens of landgrabbers have been illegally ranching cattle there, hoping their operations will be legalized.

It is near the city of Novo Progresso, a deforestation hotspot where Bolsonaro, who favors economic development over forest preservation, received 83% of the votes in his failed 2022 re-election bid.

Unlike wildfire in North America, where blazes sometimes reach treetops and expand from there, in the Amazon rainforest, fire spreads mostly through leaves on the ground, causing less harm. The deforestation control agency, known as INPE, tallies these areas as burn scars, not as deforestation.

That is why, despite the surge in fire, this year’s deforestation rate is still slowing under President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and could end 2024 with a 60% reduction compared to Bolsonaro’s years. This shows how deforestation is only one metric — and one that does not provide a full picture for damage to the forest in a given year.

“In areas where the fire was very intense, the forest may completely collapse,” Claudio Almeida, a senior officer at INPE, told the AP. “Even regions where the fire was not as intense are now severely degraded and fragile. Another season of intense drought and fires could lead to the breakdown of the forest.”

So important points:

1- Deforestation metrics are not going to match forest fires,

2- There is evidence criminals are using the opportunity to cause more fires. Criminals, but for what purpose could they have to do this?

Now I'll give you the PCBR analysis "Agribusiness must be held responsible for the fires. " of it(google TL) I can't quote everything

However, accidental cases cannot hide the deliberate actions of fires to expand pasture and crop areas. One of the areas most affected by the fires and which contributed most to the production of toxic smoke in August was the Arc of Deforestation, an area that runs from the east and south of Pará to the west, passing through Mato Grosso, southern Amazonas, Rondônia and Acre.

Indigenous Lands (IL) invaded by mining are also being heavily attacked by arson. The Kayapó (PA), Munduruku (PA) and Sararé (MT) territories, which are currently the most affected by mining, suffered 1,111 fires between August 1st and 28th. This number is almost seven times higher than the 163 fires recorded in these territories in 2023. In these cases, the inaction of the Lula government in not having carried out the eviction of mining from the ILs is decisive. Furthermore, according to the Indimap platform , 3,469 points with flames were identified in ILs in Brazil in the week between August 19th and 26th alone.

In the case of sugarcane crops in the state of São Paulo, it is important to remember that the use of fire was predominant in the harvest until the 2008/2009 harvest . In the 2010/2011 harvest, 2.1 million hectares of sugarcane were burned in São Paulo. An area 26 times larger than the 80 thousand hectares burned in August 2024. There are a series of studies that have pointed to the worsening health of part of the population in the producing regions due to the burning of sugarcane.

Since sugarcane burning is nothing new, the swift actions proposed by the São Paulo government and the federal government in favor of sugar mill owners and plantation owners are primarily political and ideological in nature. They aim to place agribusiness as the victim of the fires, disguising its responsibility for climate change and for many of the deliberately set fires. The measure that has drawn the most attention is the so-called emergency measure , which prevents landowners from being fined or sanctioned by environmental agencies. It is a blank check to practice burning, since all one has to do is go to the municipal Agriculture House and declare themselves a victim.

In addition, the measures include transferring another portion of the public fund to agribusiness. Ruralist and Bolsonaro supporter Guilherme Piai, Secretary of Agriculture and Supply for the state of São Paulo, announced credit with 0% interest and a two-year grace period for landowners affected by the fires. Carlos Fávaro, Minister of Agriculture, said that the federal government is also studying proposals along the same lines.

They go further I recommend reading. So I'm sure most of this is obvious yeah, capitalist pigs go burr.

But here is the fundamental context. If China were to be making FTAs while simultaneously enacting pro-landowner/agribusiness law, giving them tax breaks and incentives while failing to protect their own national interests(i.e environmental protection), then they would be victims of imperialism at best and just another global south country government compromised by capitalists interests at worst. Obviously China already got a much tougher handle on their internal interests.

This is not the same for Brazil. When Brazil goes in the international stage and does nothing but yet another FTA with the imperialist powers for absolutely no gain but further exploitation, natural destruction and capital interests, then they're not resisting imperialism. We need to ask "but wait are they fighting at home then?"

THIS is where ultimate critique lies with Lula/PT government and legacy. The answer is sadly, no they're not fighting at home. Put aside the government's own neoliberal austerity push, in the environmental case here the government is unable and unwilling to fight the landowner class.

If you ask me to make an argument Lula/PT are "anti-imperialists" and all I got to show for is neoliberalism at home, compromising and subjecting to corporate and agricultural business interests while stepping on landmines trying to navigate US/EU vs BRICS? I got no argument then.

Why? Because Lula is out there signing a FTA that benefits agrobusiness, the same agrobusiness which the Lula government gives record tax breaks for. Agribusiness is champion of federal government tax benefits

Data on federal tax incentives for 2024 reveal the government's economic priorities, with emphasis on the agricultural and technology sectors, which are the biggest beneficiaries on the list. Agribusiness alone accounts for 18.7% of the tax waiver amount.

The total tax benefits amount to R$546 billion, with the overwhelming majority of those benefiting from them being members of the country's ruling classes, such as large landowners, Braskem, Globo, TAM, and Azul Linhas Aéreas. The funds from the 2024 tax breaks alone could finance the entire Bolsa Família program for three consecutive years, if collected.

More worrying, however, is the volume of benefits granted to pesticides used by large-scale landowners in rural production. Totaling R$10.7 billion, tax breaks on pesticides often benefit the acquisition and application of chemical products that are internationally condemned as harmful and polluting.

There is a long breakdown of each industry I wont quote but the conclusion

Federal tax incentives in 2024 demonstrate an inestimable value of public resources that are given on a silver platter to the country's ruling classes. A significant concentration of agribusiness in these revenues can be observed. In the context of the austerity discourse of the Lula-Alckmin government, in which the desired cut of R$50 billion in public services such as health and education is being hinted at, the tax breaks for the national bourgeoisie are even more scandalous, demonstrating that their privileges will remain not only intact, but will grow, while the working people will end up paying the bill for Minister Fernando Haddad's economic agenda.

Anti-imperialism isn't signing trade deals and then smashing the neoliberal boot at home. We may all be victims but these politicians are not fighters.

To be absolutely fair, nobody denies there was an improvement from Bolsonaro. Do not mistake this as Lula is as bad as Bolsonaro, it is bad in another way.