Who is excited?

You mean the year of unpatched Windows 10.
- As long as the browsers keep getting patches we're all good.
- You can now pay for extended updates.

It has been near for the past 15 years.
- It's the nearestest it's ever been !!!!11
- Its getting nearerer!
- what are 15 years for immortal linux. nothing. a blink of an eye
  
  41 version of Fedora.

Sadly almost every average user will most likely just use windows 10 past the end and won't bother doing anything and eventually just buy new PC in few years. Also some stuff just can't be done on Linux for work, not that it can't be done but had problems with people not being able to open the files that were made on Linux libre office. But personally I'll switch to Linux for safety and try to make it daily driver.
- I have solved my work problem by using the online versions of MS office and SharePoint. The desktop versions are just emulated web apps these days anyway. I have only seen MS Project (which sucks anyway) and Excel having features I needed once or twice on the desktop version vs the online version.
  
  Try OnlyOffice it's basically indistinguishable from Microsoft Office, and available as a flatpak

To put this in perspective, it fell by 0.48%
Windows 10 grew by 0.89%
Linux actually dropped by 0.26% in that same period.
Not that I'd be too concerned about any of that, because that's all data from reported OS in website visits, so all those are well within the margin of error.

The year of the Linux desktop will happen when a large (EDIT: large, CONSUMER-FOCUSED AND CONSUMER-FRIENDLY) company decides to donate a remarkable amount of resources to the development and maintenance of a specific distro to make it user friendly and give it the feeling that someone who actually knows better than most users is taking care of important stuff in the background.
…Valve? 👀
- Novell tried to do that with SuSE Linux in the early 2000’s and I’ve never forgiven them. Edit, AND did deals with Microsoft. Brr.
- AND runs all windows programs right out of the box with no faffing about.
  
  TBH: Most private users aren't really using many programs. They are running chrome. Maybe an email client, but even that is declining. They are looking at pictures with the standard photo viewer and maybe at some PDFs and sometimes they are writing a letter and print it? Linux totally can do that.

We've been through this before.
When Windows dropped most 32 bit support, desktop Linux had a chance just like this, but it didn't happen then either. Unless some distro becomes a perfect 1:1 replacement for Windows on all hardware, with no changes in installation procedure. (including when it's purchased) as well as: All software must run not only perfectly, but exactly the same, with everything from installation to every moment of use exactly the same, otherwise people will use Windows unpatched, or go out and buy new hardware.
In my opinion, the year of Linux on the desktop will only come when the desktop is abandoned, and it is no longer a commonly used platform.
Yes, it's bleak, but we've been down this road before. Unless a distro becomes perfect, no significant change will come.
Scoop up that hardware being discarded, install your favorite distro (because you will be supporting it) and give it away to someone to learn Linux. There will never be a mass exodus, just install, educate, and chip away 1 user at a time.
- Even if there was a perfect drop in replacement it wouldn't change anything. People bitch and moan about windows all of the time but the reason they use it is bc that's what came with their laptop.
  Reinstalling a new OS is the biggest problem, people will learn how to do things but they won't go out of their way to do it.
  
  Write a BadUSB script to back up their files, nuke the drive, install mint, then repopulate the files (or just leave them a free USB with their files on it to transfer back) be the change you want to see in the world!
  (For legal reasons this is a joke).
- Given this explanation, I am amazed I was able to use an iPad after having an android tablet. I had to pick new apps! Relearn the settings! In a different hardware!
  I'm honestly proud of myself. Thanks.
  
  I'm just pissed iPads don't have NFC. We use one to clock in at work and it would save me time if I could create an NFC tag with my password but iPads have no NFC radio.

Look, I like Linux too, and I think governments should definitely use it to move away from Microsoft.
But as long as prebuilt PCs and laptops are sold with Windows, people will stay accustomed to it and be way more hesitant to switch. You can tell them, 'It works just like Windows! It just looks a bit different!' Yet their minds will still think, 'New = scary.' and won't use it.
- The issue for me as a potential advocate to my immediate circle of friends and family is that I don't want to become the only source of tech support. Now realistically they'll probably have fewer issues, but as soon as they want to fix something they'll have to come to me. No they won't Google things, and if they do they won't understand it.
- That was true in the past. But in the last 10 years people have stalled their PC upgrades. That's the real reason why they don't move to Win11, because they don't want to buy a new PC. And that's where Linux is going to get that market from MS.
- There are more devices that ship with Linux or actively advertise support for it than ever tho. Of course far from the majority, but it's a start that you can get basically anything with Linux if you want

When new OEM PCs comes with Linux pre-installed is when stuff happens. Not before then. Windows 11 adoption will be slow cause of their exclusion of old hardware. That old hardware will be scrapped or people just keep Windows 10 on it, regardless of security warnings.
The Desktop Linux experience, with gaming and all, seems pretty close to fulfilling everyone needs at this point. But it would not surprise me if Microsoft goes around paying OEM manufacturers to not bundle anything but windows with their products.
- I recently made the switch and motivated a friend who is still on win7 to go to linux. While installing and setting up his system i realised that you still need some konsole handling skills, that normal windows user not really have. To me thats normal, growing up with dos and win311, but if you started with win 2000 or later. Thats all new stuff.
  I think laptops/computers that are all ready setup completely usable, should be a thing, thought.
  
  I think that a lot of people are missing this, my first Windows was Windows XP, so I'm pretty much used to doing everything through a GUI
- But it would not surprise me if Microsoft goes around paying OEM manufacturers to not bundle anything but windows with their products.
  They already did that in the 90s
- i dont think we'll have any large amount of preinstalls until the anticheat problem is solved
  also you are just simply lying to yourself if you think desktop linux experience is fulfilling - i force my entire family to use linux and trust me the experience is not even close to being fulfilling for everyone
  
  Anticheat is kernel compromise. No one should be using games that use that, or OSes that allow it.
  As for fulfillment, unless you need very specific apps to do your job, I'm sure it can be fulfilling with the right DE and distro. For me, I'm using Linux since 1998, and I still prefer Mint over Arch, for example. It just works.
  
  Probably because its not preinstalled in more hardware?
- It sounds like Valve is going to release SteamOS, so there could be a number of handhelds with Linux pre-installed soon.
- Dell has done this for a while now. You just can’t buy them in store, you have to custom order them.

Please Valve launch SteamOS, and I can be done with it
- Unless Valve has said otherwise, I doubt SteamOS is going to be released for desktop. SteamOS is basically just Arch + kde plasma but with tweaks targeting the SteamDeck hardware
  
  Is there really a significant difference between steamOS and using big picture mode + proton? I've had hardly any issues using steam on Ubuntu to play windows only games. Even Microsoft flight sim works despite trying it's hardest to act like part of windows.
  
  KDE Linux to me sounds like the desktop Linux worth waiting for - although if you are willing to put in some work, EndeavourOS is half way there and available today
- KDEs Project Banana OS basically sounds like Steamdecks immutable Arch with Plasma
- there not many easy results for "arch based distro with KDE how to [do thing]" but there are a lot of Steamdeck tutorials and a SteamOS desktop version would make it better
  My yearly "I should try Linux again" cycle would probably stay permanently if Valve makes the OS
  
  People who just blindly copy and paste random commands without any transferable thinking shouldn't use computers in the first place.
- Just install Bazzite, I think that's basically SteamOS.
  
  Oh huh, Bazzite's based on Fedora Atomic. What's the one that's just Windows under the hood? I remember being surprised, "why would people want to install THAT on a Steam Deck"?
- If i remember well, Chimera OS is what steam took inspiration of for steam OS.
  It is available for desktop. take a look on it :) .

The windows 11 ads worked. I installed Linux a month ago and would say the transition is done and iam really happy.
- I wonder how many people would notice if when upgrading from windows 10 to 11, windows is replaced by KDE themed to look like windows 11.
  
  They will notice that their programs no longer work. .exe is not working. But my mom said: there is no longer any wait time at shutdown. She meant waiting for Windows update.
- Same here.
  Migrated my home studio/gaming rig to Nobara this year. The only reason I have Windows still on a drive in my PC is because the sim racing titles I enjoy (mainly iRacing) use anti-cheat and I'm also a little bit scared of bricking my expensive peripherals trying to get them working on Linux. Seems like it's very possible, but I'm still hesitant.
  That said, literally every audio peripheral I have works perfect, as well as all my VSTs. Concerning gaming, the only title in my steam library that is giving me issues is Counter Strike 2 which I'm not interested in playing right now anyway.
  10/10, would recommend migrating to Nobara.
  
  Nice to her! Which vsts do you use? Sadly i stopped doing music some years ago, but i have bitwig and some bought vsts. I wondered using them will be an issue. Like if they have an installer for windows.

While people don't want to move onto Windows 11, I recently saw a fricking Vista on a local office supply store.
- I've seen brand new installs of XP. An ancient process works there, so if they need a new deployment, XP it is.
  No internet and minimum user interaction though
  
  It's really fine if they have no access to internet. They probably have their software that works fine with it, and probably won't work on newer OSes. There is an airport that still uses Win 3.1 on some computers, don't recall the name though.
  Funny thing is, XP still appears on Windows market share.

Taking the dive on my gaming tower. Wish me luck bois
- Youll prefer tinkering with the os rather than playing in no time ;)
  
  Posting pictures of riced-out tiling window manager desktops is the hot new game they’re looking for.
- You don't need luck. You've got us! (And the Internet to verify our claims lol)
  Just triple check every step, learn how to prevent ESD, and pull that useless little sticky plastic protector off the cooler before you install it! (That one gets SO many system builders).
- Where's you're going you don't need luck, just a solid enough internet access point to search for solutions!

I remember similar articles when Windows 7 reached end of life. People will complain but mostly adapt to Windows 11, and Linux will gain 0.2% market share.
- Will they though ? Me and all my nerd friends straight up ignored windows 8, I'm sure we weren't alone. I also saw the writing on the wall with windows 11 and went with Linux for my new gaming PC
  
  I ignored Windows 8, and even 10 for a while, but that was because Windows 7 was still working and supported and still kinda is my favorite version of Windows.
  Then at some point I just switched to 10 and been using it ever since while installing the occasional distro to see if I can move off of Windows (Answer is still no) or as an emergency desktop bootable USB
- This time is a little different. A lot of slightly older but really decent hardware won't be compatible with Window's TPM requirements. They're forcing their customers to buy all new hardware for an overall worse experience. Pair that with the upcoming Trump tariffs and you'll see some people second guess their next choice of OS if it means they can save on a lot of money if they make some concessions on what they want. I'm not saying it'll be a huge change but at least it'll keep ticking up the Linux market share enough for some software publishers to start offering their products on the platform like Steam already is.
  
  For most non-tech savvy people, the OS is part of the computer. It comes with win 10, that’s just the way the computer works and it will stay with 10 until the hardware fails or is too slow and they need a new PC. They’re not separate. And if a PC costs more, they’re just going to deal with it longer or give up on a desktop/laptop and do more on their phones.
- When Windows 7 reached EOL in 2012, ChromeOS wasn't even a year old, MacOS was too expensive, SteamOS wasn't close on the horizon, tablets weren't really usable, smartphones were severely underpowered, and most applications didn't have web-based versions or replacements.
  This time around, none of those things are true, and Windows 11 lost market share last month (which is frankly unprecedented).
  Plus, even with that dearth of options, people griped and complained and refused for so long that Microsoft made a big marketing deal out of Windows 8.1. And even after that, they offered Windows 7 users free Windows 10 licenses to get them to upgrade.
  Linux probably won't get the crown (though I'd say a bump as high as 1-2% isn't out of the question). It'll probably be ChromeOS, if anything, simply because of the commanding lead Google has held for the past decade or so in K12. But in any case, if Microsoft doesn't shift their strategy, they're unlikely to win this one; there are a lot of options.
  
  windows 7 reached extended eol in 2020, for security updates only, i believe that's what they were talking about

~~2020 2021 2022 2023 2024~~ 2025 !!!

Near? You can install Linux right now, no need to wait for anything to happen.
- And that's because the year of the Linux desktop was when Intel started full upstream contributions of drivers.
- No, I literally cannot muster the willpower to switch.

Windows 11 is not that bad in the sense that a lot of its anti features are in Windows 10 now. With some work you can make it functional.
With that being said, Linux. By the time I spend trying to make Windows work I might as well use something that respects my freedom.

Don't worry, they'll drop 12 soon to make people prefer 11

Filthy Windowses!

If they aren’t smart enough to upgrade to 11 then they aren’t smart enough to switch to Linux
- I doubt that people aren't "smart enough". I've seen the ads for windows 11 on my dad's PC, they are literally full screen banners that guide you right to the upgrade. It couldn't be more simple and obnoxious. The truth is that people simply don't want Windows 11.
  
  I would want Windows 11 if it wasn't a total privacy nightmare. I have been a Windows user for a long time, but MS scared me away the moment the started requiring online accounts. Half my life is on my computer, they can fuck right off with that. Windows is generally pretty good for work computers, but I rather take my private business elsewhere
- I dunno bro, I use Linux and I'm dumb af on a good day.

Yeah, just like how Netflix's rule changes was going to get everyone to turn to piracy. In reality, their subscription numbers skyrocketed, just like how new Windows PC sales will in 10 months.

While I love Linux and wish more people would switch over, I know damn well most people just want to keep using Windows. The people who REALLY want Linux will find it.
Right now I've been offering my friends n family who don't want Win11 two options.
I help them get started using Linux.
Or I show them how to get the IoT LTSC branch of Win10 that'll still get security updates until at the latest 2032.
Most of them including the more tech savy folks just want to keep Win10 with updates, Some have opted to try Linux on a dual boot but few have stuck with it.
- A few questions since you seem to know much more about this than I can probably even find from searching:
  What is "IoT"? What is "LTSC"?
  Other than update support, how is this different from my existing home laptop's Windows 10?
  Is this free? Will there be obnoxious limitations or reminders to pay to activate?
  Why should I as a medium skill home computer user without work needs opt for this over Mint, Ubuntu, Nobara, Arch, or whatever other distro somebody would insist I use? I don't need Office.
  
  I'm no expert by any means but.
  The the LTSC branch of windows is the enterprise version Microsoft sell only to businesses that require less flashy feature and longer security support since most business don't update machines frequently. IOT just seems to be the LTSC version with the longest supported update cycle.
  It's slightly less bloated at least the Win10 version doesn't come with pre-installed games and didn't even have the Microsoft store installed by default. It still comes with telemetry but heard some say online they've had an easier time disabling it and keeping it disabled on the LTSC versions.
  It's "free" as in a sandwich you find on the side of the road is free. Microsoft REALLY doesn't want regular users using their business only services but people always find a way.
  It's really only for people who currently refuse Linux but also can't/won't upgrade to Windows 11. I'm only suggesting it because I'd rather people at least still get security updates than use a completely unsupported OS.

Yes, precious.
- We wants it!

Think about this for a second,Why we use Linux on supercomputers and servers and even our phones and embedded devices,But at home we are forced to use Windows from what i heard its built on stolen code and Microsoft had so much mess ups in the past, and why do manufactures put this stolen code os from a company with alot of mess ups in the past on their Pcs.

I finally switched. Honestly, the only thing I hate is the audio manager.
- Which can easily be replaced 😁

ME ??
That wasn't a good OS either...

This may lead to people looking for options. That is good for the competition.
Linux may be ready to receive some of the users. Not in all areas. There is still work to be done. Unfortunately the users want to change now so it may be to other OS. Maybe MAC or Chrome OS. Unfortunately there is no easy transition or as camping for moving to Linux, like double click this .exe and migration begins.
I moved to Fedora with KDE but that was only possible due to I am a power user. Average Joe will fail and find suitable replacement applications takes time.
I hope some companies with money takes the opportunity to take care of those lost souls. Maybe Red har have money for TV ads?

Everyone migrates to Ubuntu. One finger of the monkey's paw curls up.

Windows 10 LTSC IoT is supported til the end of 2031, maybe 2032 will be the year I finally switch.
- If you're the type of person that can acquire and run LTSC, aren't you exactly the kind of person that has the ability to switch to Linux?
  
  They're definitely the kind of person who's saavy enough to make their own decisions
  
  I've tried several times over the years, I always run into too many issues before I just give up because USB aren't recognizing things or it won't boot or it won't run some specific software after 2 hours of trying to fix it. My last attempt on a dev laptop in 2022 lasted the longest, Maybe it'll be sorted out in 2032 though.
  
  Being able != being willing.

On steam linux has already passed the market share of windows… 7.

- It is a meme. I saw people joking about it on Slashdot back when Linux 2.4 was recent.

5%

Again?

I decided to set up Fedora on my new laptop as it was either take a chance on that or spend like 3 hours debloating a Win11 install.
It's been over 10 years since I last tried dailying Linux, we have come a long way in that time. Everything just worked out of the box. No fucking around needed.
Even relatively niche stuff like my thunderbolt dock and the laptop's fingerprint sensor was picked up. And, thanks to the investment Valve has been putting into Wine and Proton, pretty much every game I've tried has worked with no issue.
Next time my desktop is due for a clean install I'll definitely be doing the same there.
- frankly, windows reinstalling stuff and changing settings to what they wanted every time it updated is why I left.

But which Desktop?
- Of course we all have our preferences and personal history with these things, but I think we can all agree that most preconfigured Debian, Ubuntu, Fedora and openSUSE ISOs with popular desktops are already more sensible and simple than the mess that is "searching for a setting in Windows".
  Whether it's GNOME, KDE, Cinnamon, Budgie, Mate, XFCE, LXQt.
  Compared to Windows, every Linux desktop is a blessing. Even that one that you personally don't like or had a bad experience with.
- Steam OS?

Ah, yes, the mythical "Year of the Linux Desktop"—that elusive utopia Linux enthusiasts have been chasing since it's creation. Newsflash: nobody cares. The year of the Linux desktop isn't some grand global awakening; it's just whenever you decide to stop whining about it and install the thing. For me, it was 2002, and guess what? My computer didn't care either. It just worked. So stop waiting for some cosmic alignment of market share and app support. The year of the Linux desktop is when you make it. Now go forth and sudo (or doas) your destiny....
- Nice :)
- Can you safely remove sudo and completely switch to doas? I don't see the point having 2 pieces of software that accomplish the same task.
  
  Personally never tried to do that myself, but I'm pretty sure its doable....

I've been learning GIMP to replace Photoshop in preparation. So far, so good, but there are still things about GIMP I just dont get. Like, it's seems impossible to paint onto a fully transparent layer because the paint tool doesn't modify the mask as it goes. I don't even want that layer to have an alpha channel, but it seems like you have no choice if you want a transparent layer.
If you try to paint on a transparent layer, you just get... nothing. It's so trivial in Photoshop to make a new layer and just paint into it, and I can't figure it out at all in GIMP. (I really should ask in a forum, but I also feel like I shouldn't have to.)
Being able to script in Python to simulate Photoshop actions is both awesome and crappy. It's awesome because of how powerful it is, but crappy that I can't just whip up an action in seconds to make a quick, repeatable edit.
I guess I'll have to use a VM to run Autodesk Fusion. ☹️
- After switching about 3 years ago, I tried running photoshop through wine. It was a little glitchy visually (I hear it's ok nowadays though) so I tried gimp and just couldn't get used to it. I tried krita and its perfect for what I use it for, very easy to use coming from photoshop. I'm not sure about actions as I don't think I used them in Photoshop but it has plugins so you might be able to find something to replace what you used before
- Maybe try https://photopea.com/, an in browser Photoshop recreation.
- For home use FreeCAD might be an okey replacement for autodesk. It's not as polished, but working well enough for simple geometrioes
- Not sure what you need from Fusion but have you had a look at OnShape?
  
  I have not. I use Fusion for CAD and CAM for a CNC router.

"No, golblammit! I said the year of Linux is n-" CLANG!

I think the year of the Linux desktop is imminent, assuming you consider Chrome OS Linux. :/
- Chrome OS is being replaced.
  
  With Android no less

Why do you want people to use Linux? Its a OS with a completely different philosophy, most people don't care about FOSS.
- Because more market share means more fucks to give from companies that make stuff we use.
  
  But it also means more people will try to introduce malware and exploits.
  Not saying that hardware makers giving a single fuck about linux would be a bad thing, but rather than a sudden huge increase in desktop linux usage doesn't sound as good to me as if it happens with time.