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Bulletins and News Discussion from November 18th to November 24th, 2024 - Could It Soon Be Azover? - COTW: Ukraine

back in my map era, we're ukrainemaxxing right now

Declarations of the imminent doom of Ukraine are a news megathread specialty, and this is not what I am doing here - mostly because I'm convinced that whenever we do so, the war extends another three months to spite us. Ukraine has been in an essentially apocalyptic crisis for over a year now after the failure of the 2023 counteroffensive, unable to make any substantial progress and resigned to merely being a persistent nuisance (and arms market!) as NATO fights to the last Ukrainian. In this context, predicting a terminal point is difficult, as things seem to always be going so badly that it's hard to understand how and why they fight on. In every way, Ukraine is a truly shattered country, barely held together by the sheer combined force of Western hegemony. And that hegemony is weakening.

I therefore won't be giving any predictions of a timeframe for a Ukrainian defeat, but the coming presidency of Trump is a big question mark for the conflict. Trump has talked about how he wishes for the war to end and for a deal to be made with Putin, but Trump also tends to change his mind on an issue at least three or four times before actually making a decision, simply adopting the position of who talked to him last. And, of course, his ability to end the war might be curtailed by a military-industrial complex (and various intelligence agencies) that want to keep the money flowing.

The alignment of the US election with the accelerating rate of Russian gains is pretty interesting, with talk of both escalation and de-escalation coinciding - the former from Biden, and the latter from Trump. Russia very recently performed perhaps the single largest aerial attack of Ukraine of the entire war, striking targets across the whole country with missiles and drones from various platforms. In response, the US is talking about allowing Ukraine to hit long-range targets in Russia (but the strategic value of this, at this point, seems pretty minimal).

Additionally, Russia has made genuine progress in terms of land acquisition. We aren't talking about endless and meaningless battles over empty fields anymore. Some of the big Ukrainian strongholds that we've been spending the last couple years speculating over - Chasiv Yar, Kupiansk, Orikhiv - are now being approached and entered by Russian forces. The map is actually changing now, though it's hard to tell as Ukraine is so goddamn big.

Attrition has finally paid off for Russia. An entire generation of Ukrainians has been fed into the meat grinder. Recovery will take, at minimum, decades - more realistically, the country might be permanently ruined, until that global communist revolution comes around at least. And they could have just made a fucking deal a month into the war.

Please check out the HexAtlas!

The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week's thread is here.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.

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  • Since @plinky@hexbear.net did post that question I did my part only intending to write something short which got longer so now ima do it as a seperate post.

    So I chose a 'left wing newspaper' and a 'right wing newspaper' for fairness here because we gotta see both sides of the worm.

    TAZ (These are actually fairly left wing like I'm not doing a bit here)

    The International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued an arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on charges of alleged war crimes and alleged crimes against humanity. Warrants were also issued against Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and the leader of the radical islamist group Hamas, Mohammed Diab Ibrahim Al-Masri, as announced by the ICC in The Hague on thursday. The alleged crimes include murder, persecution, and other inhumane acts. Netanyahu and Gallant are additionally accused of using starvation as a method of warfare.

    This is pretty much all they got to say about it at least when I looked so this is like the 'respectable left wing german' position.

    Now FAZ aka Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung is 'center-right' you know respectable nazis.

    War in Gaza: Arrest warrants against Netanyahu and Gallant.

    This is what the warrants against Netanyahu and Gallant mean.

    Honestly I tried to properly translate this but I got kinda mad through it. Because it uses quite a bit of weasely language but here goes. I fucking ran on hateorade....

    Prosecutor Khan accuses Netanyahu and Gallant of crimes against humanity as part of a "widespread and systematic attack on the Palestinian civilian population." thanks to state policy. It's not about specific attacks by the Israeli army on civilian infrastructure but rather on the restriction and obstruction of humanitarian aid to people in the Gaza strip. Especially immediately after the war began, when Israel completely sealed off the coast and severely restricted acces to water, electricity and food.

    Ok kinda lying there since Israel is still starving the people of Gaza but it's like only bad.

    Israel's government reportedly used starvation and other acts of violence against the civilian population as part of a broad strategy aimed at eliminating Hamas, freeing Israeli hostages, and collectively punishing the Palestinian population. However, Chief Prosecutor Khan did not clarify to what extent the eventual lifting of the complete blockade and the resumption of humanitarian aid deliveries to Gaza factored into the overall assessment.

    Go fuck yourself Alexander Haneke you fucking bavarian piece of shit. He then goes on to write about how awful hamas is for roughly the same amount.

    Why is the prosecutor so fixated on the allegation of starvation?

    Since the beginning of the war, Israel has faced accusations from many sides of violating international humanitarian law. However, experts urge caution, as the legal assessment of these actions is often highly complex and depends on a variety of factors. For instance, when Hamas uses civilian facilities for military purposes, these buildings become legitimate targets; in such cases, Israel may accept civilian casualties if they are not disproportionate to the military advantage gained. By focusing on accusations of starvation and systematic violence against the civilian population, Chief Prosecutor Khan avoids these nuanced questions. “This approach allows him to target the investigations directly at government officials responsible for these strategic decisions,” explains Christoph Safferling, an international criminal law expert from Nuremberg.

    HMMMMMM MY NUANCE, HMMMMMMMM MY HAMAS IS USING CIVILIAN SHIELDS, HMMMMM ISRAEL IS NOT TRYING TO BLOW EVERYBODY UP. LIKE YOU WANT TO KNOW WHY HE 'FIXATED' ON STARVATION? IT'S BECAUSE THERE IS UNDENIABLE TRUTH THAT ISRAEL DID AND IS CURRENTLY DOING IT, THERE'S NO 'HAMAS WAS IN THE REFUGEE CAMP' 'HAMAS IS HOSPITALS' HERE YOU FUCKING DOLT.

    Like the whole thing is just this hemming at hawing at how Israel certainly didn't do a genocide they just went a little too far like holy shit how is your next paragraph.

    COULD THE ICC HAVE DONE SOMETHING DIFFERENT FOR THE INVESTIGATIONS?

    In principle, the same procedures apply at the International Criminal Court as in German law. Arrest warrants and pre-trial detention are not convictions—they primarily serve to secure the legal process and prevent the accused from evading the court or committing further crimes. In cases of particularly serious allegations, issuing an arrest warrant is standard practice, even in Germany. However, when it comes to government officials of a state engaged in a war, the question arises whether an arrest is truly necessary and politically feasible.

    HMMMMMMMMM I WONDER IF HE DID IT, HMMMMMMMMM I WONDER IF THE GENOCIDER REALLY SHOULD BE JAILED AFTER ALL HIS COUNTRY IS AT WAR HMMMMMMMM I AM THE THINKER, WE CAN'T ARREST HITLER HIS COUNTRY NEEDS HIM IT'S AT WAR

    One last for the road...

    Hamas celebrated the arrest warrants as a historic step, calling the decision an “important historical precedent and a correction of a long history of injustice against our people.” According to Hamas, the United States had spent months trying to block the action against the two “terrorists,” Netanyahu and Gallant, and had “terrorized” the court and its judges. Hamas did not comment on the warrant against Mohammed Deif. The group urged the court to expand its investigations to include “all criminal leaders of the occupation,” targeting ministers and officers who have “shed the blood of our Palestinian people.”

    YES THEY ARE TERRORISTS THEY LITERALLY DID TERROR BOMBINGS, YES THE USA TERRORIZED THE COURT AND JUDGES GET THE FUCKING " " OUT OF THERE LIKE IT'S CRAZY HOW HE IS JUST QUOTE MINING HAMAS WHILE GIVING ENTIRE PARAGRAPHS TO ZIONISTS.

    Johann Wadephul, the Deputy Chairman of the CDU parliamentary group responsible for foreign policy, told the FrAZ that the issuance of the arrest warrants was problematic. “There are doubts about the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court in this matter. The German government is called upon to take a clear stance,” said Wadephul. He linked his response to criticism of Foreign Minister Baerbock, accusing her of failing to send “the best German candidate into the race for a seat at the ICC.” “That Germany is not represented in this important body, and thus unable to advocate for Israel’s right to self-defense, is a serious failure by the foreign minister.” For him, it was inconceivable that “a democratically elected Prime Minister of the State of Israel would be arrested on German soil.” The arrest warrants, he said, demonstrated the “complete lack of sensitivity at the top of the International Criminal Court.”

    SHUT THE FUCK UP JOHANN SHUT THE FUCK UP ALEXANDER SHUT THE FUCK UP GERMANY

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