Bulletins and News Discussion from November 18th to November 24th, 2024 - Could It Soon Be Azover? - COTW: Ukraine
Bulletins and News Discussion from November 18th to November 24th, 2024 - Could It Soon Be Azover? - COTW: Ukraine
back in my map era, we're ukrainemaxxing right now
Declarations of the imminent doom of Ukraine are a news megathread specialty, and this is not what I am doing here - mostly because I'm convinced that whenever we do so, the war extends another three months to spite us. Ukraine has been in an essentially apocalyptic crisis for over a year now after the failure of the 2023 counteroffensive, unable to make any substantial progress and resigned to merely being a persistent nuisance (and arms market!) as NATO fights to the last Ukrainian. In this context, predicting a terminal point is difficult, as things seem to always be going so badly that it's hard to understand how and why they fight on. In every way, Ukraine is a truly shattered country, barely held together by the sheer combined force of Western hegemony. And that hegemony is weakening.
I therefore won't be giving any predictions of a timeframe for a Ukrainian defeat, but the coming presidency of Trump is a big question mark for the conflict. Trump has talked about how he wishes for the war to end and for a deal to be made with Putin, but Trump also tends to change his mind on an issue at least three or four times before actually making a decision, simply adopting the position of who talked to him last. And, of course, his ability to end the war might be curtailed by a military-industrial complex (and various intelligence agencies) that want to keep the money flowing.
The alignment of the US election with the accelerating rate of Russian gains is pretty interesting, with talk of both escalation and de-escalation coinciding - the former from Biden, and the latter from Trump. Russia very recently performed perhaps the single largest aerial attack of Ukraine of the entire war, striking targets across the whole country with missiles and drones from various platforms. In response, the US is talking about allowing Ukraine to hit long-range targets in Russia (but the strategic value of this, at this point, seems pretty minimal).
Additionally, Russia has made genuine progress in terms of land acquisition. We aren't talking about endless and meaningless battles over empty fields anymore. Some of the big Ukrainian strongholds that we've been spending the last couple years speculating over - Chasiv Yar, Kupiansk, Orikhiv - are now being approached and entered by Russian forces. The map is actually changing now, though it's hard to tell as Ukraine is so goddamn big.
Attrition has finally paid off for Russia. An entire generation of Ukrainians has been fed into the meat grinder. Recovery will take, at minimum, decades - more realistically, the country might be permanently ruined, until that global communist revolution comes around at least. And they could have just made a fucking deal a month into the war.
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Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
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Ukraine just hit a military installation in Bryansk with ATACMS missiles in the early hours of this morning, five intercepted but one got through according to the Russian MOD. Putin has also signed Russia's updated nuclear doctrine into law, allowing for a nuclear response to a large scale non nuclear attack by a non nuclear state, aided by a nuclear state.
Russian MoD statement:
Translation of Russian MoD statement
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Tonight at 3.25 a.m. the enemy struck a facility on the territory of the Bryansk region with six ballistic missiles.
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According to confirmed information, American-made ATACMS operational-tactical ballistic missiles were used.
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As a result of an anti-missile battle by S-400 SAMs and Pantsir SAMs, five missiles were shot down and one was damaged.
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Its fragments fell on the technical territory of a military facility in the Bryansk region, causing a fire, which was promptly extinguished.
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There were no casualties or damage.
Russian Ministry of Defence
The statement appears in contradiction with the latest video from the area, showing a clear explosion. It seems as if the damaged missile got through for a direct hit. Or there were some secondary explosions from debris. Either way, there is clear damage done should the footage be legitimate.
Biden's going to get us all nuked.Why does America want Russia to use nukes so badly?
Losing New York under a Trump admin will really fire up the base
Hopefully that entire DPRK military sized NYPD budget went towards missile defense
missile defensebunker storage
"They're insane death cultists and their leader is a hateful, evil man with advancing dementia" is an answer that is on the table.
What is Ukraine smoking. It seems theyre happy to get nuked for daddy Amerikkka. And Zelensky and the ruling class that he represents are complete traitors to Ukrainians.
This has been part of Zelensky's five and ten point plans for a while. He really is that delusional.
True he's out of his mind.
And I'm sure That NATO membership is in the mail
Is there any conformation that Zelensky is making decisions?
I mean it's the general elite consensus that any politician represents. Being a willing spokesman like Zelensky or an politician still makes you a sellout (not implying you disagree of course)
Fascists aren't rational actors, especially in warfare.
Well, idk, Parenti says they're rational and it all makes sense at a certain scale but i'm still reading bs and reds.
I think the most interesting part of this is that the S400s have grossly underperformed.
A single S400 battery should have taken down every single one of these. Letting one through is a huge embarrassment and a bad sign that the S400 might underperform expectations.
No modern air defence or missile defence system in the world is able to deal with modern day ballistic missiles when fired at a large enough volume, with quasi ballistic manouvers (in the case of ATACMS and Iskander-M) and Maneuverable Re-entry Vehicles (MaRVs) capable of performing skip and glide trajectories/pull up manoeuvres and pseudo random evasive maneuvers, in the case of modern Iranian missiles, such as the Kheibar Shekan series, and Fattah-1. We've seen Patriot PAC-3 systems been destroyed by Iskanders and Kinzhals, and S-300 and S-400 systems been destroyed by ROCKS (in Iran) and ATACMS.
Modern ballistic missiles (both air launched and ground launched) travel faster than ever inside the earth's atmosphere, are capable of high accuracy even in GPS denied environments (in the case of US systems with highly accurate inertial guidance, Israeli systems with anti radiation seekers, and short range Iranian systems with EO seekers), and can manouver in non ballistic ways. It's just going to get even worse for air defence once hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs) enter service. India just tested an Anti Ship HGV a few days ago.
6 missiles to defeat it is still really concerning as that's easily within the payload of a single F35 firing from safely out of range of the S400.
The only F-35s with Air Launched Ballistic Missiles (ALBMs) are the Israeli F-35s with the ROCKS missile, the US F-35s have the AGM-158 JASSM and LRASM cruise missiles as standoff weapons, and cannot carry them in the internal weapons bays, and only on external pylons. Realistically, one F-35 can only carry 2 AGM-158s (it has only been pictured carrying two at a time) or ROCKs missiles at a time on external pylons, given that these are large heavy missiles with a large aerodynamic footprint. So that's 3 F-35s for six missiles. The smaller SPEAR 3 cruise missiles, designed to be carried internally, are still in development, and are much smaller weapons, more similar to 100kg glide bombs than large cruise or ballistic missiles.
Realistically, a stationary air defence system versus modern SEAD/DEAD tactics is a sitting duck, eventually it will be taken out, the aircraft always have the advantage. The key to survivability for air defence is to be mobile, as shown by the Serbs.
Good point, the future (assuming we have a future) of air defense is probably drone swarms or something like that
When looking at ground based systems, we can look at the Serbs again in this regard. They rejected the S-400 systems for highly mobile Chinese HQ-22 systems. Many, including me, were perplexed by such a decision. The HQ-22 is inferior to the S-400 in almost every area, except one: mobility and footprint. But now, given current events and the experience the Serbs had against a modern NATO SEAD/DEAD campaign, it makes sense. They prioritised mobility above everything else.
The S-400s can be dismantled and deployed within 5-10 minutes. Mobility is not the problem. The problem is that you cannot use them when they’re being transported elsewhere.
When there is an incoming strike, it has to turn on its radar in order to detect and track the enemy missiles. And when you turn on your radar, you are vulnerable to anti-radiation weaponry. The very act of defense in itself places the SAM battery at risk.
So, you have to choose to protect your SAM batteries, or your high value assets.
Also, the S-400s are object-based defense systems, which means that they are deployed to specifically defend a certain asset or location (object), for example, an airfield, so their locations are mostly fixed because airfields can’t move. There are other lighter systems like the S-300V4s that are deployed together with troop movements and these systems are much more mobile in operational terms.
(Note that the Russian integrated air defense systems (IADS) can also receive inputs from other ground-based and air-based radars, so while there is a primary radar, it doesn’t have to rely on only one sensor. Western/NATO air force has also achieved this capability in recent years with data links.)
Lol at NATO putting it's entire strategy on a stealth plane that can't stealth while carrying a meaningful payload and can't carry a meaningful payload and maintain stealth.
Russian air defenses shot down five of the missiles and another was damaged. Fragments from the damaged missile fell on the territory of a military facility, causing a fire that has since been extinguished. There were no casualties or damage.
It sounds like they actually did shoot down all of them but one crash landed instead of exploding
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/19/europe/ukraine-russia-atacms-biden-strike-intl/index.html
Yeah I saw the MoD statement and added it to the initial post. Apparent footage shows a large explosion though, could be a secondary explosion from debris, or a direct hit.
The technology you’re describing does not exist in our world. In fact, I cannot even name a single country with an air defense system other than Russia that can handily intercept 5 out of 6 highly advanced supersonic ballistic rockets. The Patriots don’t even come close to this when intercepting Iraqi Scuds designed in the 1960s.
These aren’t homemade rockets that the Israeli Iron Domes were used to shoot down with, and likely happened under heavy electronic jamming environment that strongly curbed the operational capability of the Russian integrated air defense systems (IADS), which comprise not just the long range S-400s but an integrated network of intermediate and short range defense weapons like Pantsirs and Buks as well. With an extremely long border, there is very little chance of saturating any single location with limited amount of air defense systems except for the highest value assets.
Maybe the S-500s can do that (specially designed to take down hypersonic ballistic missiles) but I think there are only a couple units that are operational and they’re all deployed around Moscow.
Bonus trivia: did you know that Moscow’s urban layout with its distinctive concentric ring-like layers was designed specifically to accommodate the world’s first surface-to-air missile defense system, the S-25 Berkut, that were first deployed around Moscow in the 1950s to defend the capital city of the USSR from potential NATO air attacks?
I think you are overestimating the effectiveness of anti-air anything. Russian air defence is stretched accross over a 1000km of front line. Its impossible for them to have amazing cover over everything. Russia probably thought usa was not insane and wouldn't dare cross the red line of striking Russia proper and thus didn't cover their home territory as well as places like Crimea.
and 
wrote the theory, 
and 
do the praxis.I'm seriously concerned, but this is really funny
As I learnt a long time ago, if you don't laugh, you'll cry.
Also technically
did both the theory and praxis, he wrote a book about bombing Russian oil and gas pipelines, and then he actually did it with regards to Nordstream.I am also very worried to be honest.
When Waterkloof Air Force Base and Makhado Air Force Base eventually get nuked during the eventual nuclear exchange, I'm going to enjoy seeing the nuclear hellfire live before my painful and hellish death. Maybe I'll just watch up close from the hillsides so I'll die instantly, seems like the best way to go.
In all seriousness though, this is very worrying.
Here I'm wondering if my city is important enough that I'll die instantly or if it'll be starvation/nuclear winter
fuck
i was just about to go to bed and all, hope i wake up lol
update: i woke up
Remember to fill your water bottle before going to bed
done <3
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