Do you think another civil war can happen in the US?
Do you think another civil war can happen in the US?
People keep saying this and I personally don't really believe it, I think there could be a couple riots, but not like a full on civil war. What does everyone think?
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So I talked to a PhD who's work covered civil wars across the world, and asked about this. Turns out there are several signs you need to see which makes a civil war more likely. Most of which we haven't even gotten close to, because many of them are economic related and right now the US is still the single largest economy in the world where peoples standard of living is still very comfortable.
I asked ChatGPT to describe this and these are the highlights, in order of historical priority?
- Political instability and weak governance are present.
- There are deep ethnic, religious, or sectarian tensions.
- The economy is declining with high inequality.
- Persistent social unrest and widespread protests occur.
- External powers are interfering or supporting different factions.
- There is significant resource scarcity and competition.
- Militarization and proliferation of arms increase.
- Systematic human rights violations and repression take place.
- Society experiences strong ideological polarization.
- Demographic pressures such as rapid population growth or urbanization exist.
- The rule of law and justice systems are breaking down.
- Historical grievances and unresolved conflicts resurface.
Note that the US does have some of these, but not to the evident level that you saw in Rwanda, Sudan, Yugoslavia, Syria, Burundi, Eritrea, Somalia, Libya, Myanmar, Haiti, and others. In short, if you look at the indicators, although the US is indeed troubled, it's not troubled enough for people to hot the streets with more than riotous intent.
I am actually quite alarmed by this. It seems like all it is going to take is for a couple of years of drought to dry up the waterways and crop yields.
And we have seen the start of this already, with the water level of the Mississippi dropping to the point of preventing boats to go through
Every person is three meals away from being radicalized. Not my quote, not sure who it's attributed to, but I've seen it on the internet over the years.
I agree, shit will really hit the fan when people can't find food/water anymore, or at least have it not be readily available. Personally, I think it's coming sooner than people are expecting just because climate change will compound on itself year over year, and we're doing damn near nothing to mitigate any damage (still pumping ground water up like it's an instantly renewable resource to water golf courses in the dessert, for example).
But radical people tend to be desperate for change, and most people get desperate when they start to actually get hungry.
Let's go point by point:
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Political instability and weak governance are present.
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No
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There are deep ethnic, religious, or sectarian tensions.
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Yes
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The economy is declining with high inequality.
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Economy: not declining - Inequality: high
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Persistent social unrest and widespread protests occur.
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Might happen if Trump loses or steals the presidency
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External powers are interfering or supporting different factions.
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Yes, big time
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There is significant resource scarcity and competition.
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Not yet, but global warming might make this happen
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Militarization and proliferation of arms increase.
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Well, it's the USA
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Systematic human rights violations and repression take place.
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Might happen under Trump
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Society experiences strong ideological polarization.
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Yes
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Demographic pressures such as rapid population growth or urbanization exist.
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No
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The rule of law and justice systems are breaking down.
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No
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Historical grievances and unresolved conflicts resurface.
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No
How is there not political instability and weak governance?
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