If anyone wants, here's an extremely optimistic 2009 Brookings Institute white paper on how various hostile actions against Iran would play out based off numbers and history.
Chapter 3 analyses a "boots on the ground" invasion (the occupation would require a draft), Chapters 4-6 analyze American and Israeli airstrikes. Neither of them expect Iran to employ masses of drones or close the strait, and they consider ballistic missiles against US assets unlikely.
While they have an extreme western bias, there's no way you can twist the numbers to look good.
It makes it pretty clear how insanely unfeasible a ground invasion of Iran would be even with the most optimistic assumptions.
1.3 million just for the occupation of an 88 million pop country, and that number just comes from other occupations, without taking into consideration the terrain or people or last 50 years of preparation for asymmetrical warfare.
Yep. And when Kamala wins the popular vote but loses the electoral college because swing stat voters actually don't support GENOCIDE the Dems won't show a degree of self awareness or accept any responsibility, they will just blame Jill Stein voters
I say let them attack iran. It will be the final thrashing before the American empire collapses completely.
There are two choices in the United States 2024 election. No third party stands a ghost of a chance of winning. No, not even if the 30,000 people you can reach on Lemmy all vote for Timothy Greenparty.
A Trump victory in 2024 would not only be just as bad if not worse for the citizens of Gaza than Harris would, but also pose an existential threat to a large number of vulnerable Americans (trans people, immigrants, women seeking abortions).
Given the margins of victory in 2016 and 2020, Kamala might not win if leftists don't vote for her.
Snoozing fascism for four years is better than inviting it through the door now, and buys us time to build our defenses for when it comes back.
I'd like to focus my counterargument. Which of these statements do you disagree with?
Except it isn't. USA does not preemptively attack countries which plan to attack USA, since nobody is doing that. USA wrecks and coups countries because they are either trying to leave the US hegemonic control or the ones that are simply appealing targets for imperialism.
The problem (aside from international relations nonsense) is that Iran's air force and missiles won't be able to inflict significant damage on Israel, which aside from the Iron dome has the strongest air force in the region.
We already saw that the dome cannot intercept Iranian missiles just days ago. Also, the math doesn't work in favor of the dome given that they need 2 interceptors per missile. There's also the issue of production capacity. Once it runs through the existing stockpiles of interceptors, making new ones at the rate they’re being consumed is not possible. For example, from 2008 to present, Lockheed Martin was able to produce 800 missiles, around 50 a year. https://armyrecognition.com/news/army-news/2023/lockheed-martin-announces-delivery-of-800th-thaad-interceptor-missile-system
To counter the 180 missiles Iran reportedly launched, requiring up to 2 interceptors each, would have exhausted nearly HALF of all THAAD missiles ever produced. And that’s assuming there are enough launchers to even fire that many interceptors at once. The US is completely unprepared for the scale of war it is provoking around the globe.
Iran can absolutely cripple Israel by destroying its energy infrastructure.
They already proven twice it is not the case, they hit what they wanted to hit. Why do you people always have to take the US wars modus operandi as a standard, where an attack needs to wreck everything and kill as many civilians as possible? When is the attack "damaging", when it's doubletapping the rescuers?
Iran punched through Toilet Paper Dome and David Sling twice now. The second time, Iran dropped a (probably hypersonic) missile right down in Mossad HQ's front yard, which is being actively covered up and lied about to maintain the illusion of invincibility. Israel is also lying about damage at Nevatim. Any serious attack from Iran can easily hit all strategic targets in Israel. Iran has shown an uncanny amount of patience and it should be clear to Isnt'real that's coming to an end. They know they're vulnerable and Bibi's hands are shaking out of fear.
SHUT UP! Why couldn't you let him have that little bit of naivette?
Seriously though, its a damn fine idea, if only the US and the DNC weren't totally bat-shit on this front. Why does a little thing like reality have to be so un-cooperative?
According to Fox News, President Obama is still president and so is Traitor Trump. Everyone is president, depending upon who is watching at the moment to stir up one kind of hatred or another.