Yeah like imagine if 4 years ago he pledged to be one term president, that he viewed himself as a “transition president” and as a “bridge” to the next leader “not as anything else”.
Much like Bidens pier, his bridge led to lies as well.
If he’d done that he would have been lame duck on day 1. The second he says he’s not running anymore is the complete end of his ability to have any real legislative influence.
It's not too late until the convention is over. That's literally what it's for. Biden can direct his pledged delegates to vote for his chosen successor, whoever that might be.
I don't know that he's actually significantly worse off than he was before, but he may be heading to the point where, regardless of his health, he has lost the confidence of the electorate in his health.
This debate, and all of his post-debate has hurt him, surely. But its detached from reality to suggest that Biden wasn't "severely injured" going into this debate. The difference was that we saw an energized, verbal, focused, able to maintain eye contact and remember the first half of his sentence Joe Biden during the SOTU back in March. Bidens debate was a geriatric who is clearly "sunsetting". Bidens post debate interviews re-enforced that.
Biden needs to be leading by 5 (50-55%) in the polls nationally to demonstrate that he had the "confidence" of the electorate. He was leading by 5 in 2020 and barely managed a victory in the EC by 40k net votes. If Biden is at 45% in the polls, he's not winning the election. Biden is at 35% and dropping.
Biden hasn't had the confidence of the electorate, basically ever, in this election cycle. At no point has he been "winning" or even really viable in this campaign. This is just purely what the data show us. Its what Nate Silvers been saying for over a year, its what Ezra Klein has been saying for a long time. The apologists around Biden protected him from any kind of real primary, or significant criticism in what has been the most critical period for evaluating his sufficiency around him as candidate. We were prevented from doing the kind of due diligence required.
Main points, Biden wasn't winning this when it wasn't about his health. Layer in the appallingly clear indications around his health and extrapolate. Biden was doing way better in terms of demonstrating his ability to "be the president" with the SOTU back in March. Draw a line from then to now, and then see where that line puts you 3 months from now. If you've ever had an elderly family member "sunset" on you, it is like, shocking how fast it happens.
“It’s devastating to say it, but the Joe Biden I was with three weeks ago at the fund-raiser was not the Joe ‘big F-ing deal’ Biden of 2010,” Clooney wrote. “He wasn’t even the Joe Biden of 2020. He was the same man we all witnessed at the debate.”
Biden is going to make some snide remark about him now...
Just like he has to every other supporter who didn't give 100% loyalty forever.
Remember when we all made fun of trump for shit like this?
People are burying their heads in the sand and will act shocked and point fingers when Biden loses rather than actually try to do something about it while there's still time.
Biden is going to make some snide remark about him now…
"Listen, folks, you gotta understand, this guy, he’s just... well, y'know, he's a real... um, like a, uh, y'know, a complete... ah, c'mon man, he’s a real knucklehead, can't even... y'know, get it right, it's just... malarkey."
I noticed he sounded like Trump in one of his recent statements. I guess this is just what happens when you insist on holding the most stressful job imaginable while well beyond the age of retirement
If actors want to have an opinion that’s fine. But commenting like they have any clout or authority to ask something like this? Screw that. I’m tired of the entertainment crowd messing around in politics.
I don’t find the degree to be any sort of credential. The degree could be in theater arts, which has no bearing on politics.
I’d like to see your statistic of “most people”, and what sort of degrees they might have that are relevant to asking a candidate to drop out of a race.
All that said, the real point is that someone who is an entertainer is using their public clout in a manner to attempt to influence a politician, or at least public opinion of said politician. As I said, I’m tired of entertainers mucking about in politics.
In the booth, on election day, sure.
But that's still months away. No reason to not spend today trying to find someone people want to vote for. Someone who's actually likely to finish the term.
Besides, you have to rememeber there's a large segment of left(ish) voters who may not show up on election day unless there is a leadership change. Keeping Biden would almost guarantee they stay home.
The narrative of "Biden too old to do the job" may have reached critical mass. Regardless of the truth of the matter, politics are in perceptions. The campaign to push the narrative has succeeded - the question is where to go from here.
I'm not sure Biden dropping out is such a great idea. Biden has a lot of supporters among Democratic voters. I'm not sure there is another democrat with his same level of support. There were a lot of contenders for the nomination in 2020, Biden beat 'em all. I think there are a fair number of independents who are motivated by preventing a second Trump term, so they'd vote for anyone who isn't Trump. Biden meets that criteria. I get why Biden makes people nervous, but who would be better? Who has the same level of support among the diverse democratic voter base?
Did you watch the debate? I was all on board with Biden until he shit the bed. We needed someone with the stamina to stand up to Trump's gish gallop, and instead Joe finally beat Medicare.
If he is on the ballot I will vote for him, knowing that I am really voting for his advisers and staff to run the country after 8 pm. But any of the names being thrown about that have experience as Governor or in national politics will be acceptable. Harris, yes, but also Newsom, Whitmer, and any of the others. Harris would be easiest to slot in, since she is technically on the same ballot.
Do you really think any Democrat in the country would say "I liked Biden, and if they get rid of him I'm staying home?" It's more likely the opposite, that people aren't looking forward to voting for Bide and may end up staying home instead.
Do you really think any Democrat in the country would say "I liked Biden, and if they get rid of him I'm staying home?"
I mean, yeah, I kinda do. There are a lot of democratic voters who don't know who Newsom or Whitmer are, but they know Uncle Joe, the guy who was Obama's vice for eight years.
It's more likely the opposite, that people aren't looking forward to voting for Bide and may end up staying home instead.
Is it? I don't know.
Like you said, if Biden's on the ticket you'll vote for him. I think a lot of people will do the same.
I don't think you're taking into account the dynamics of Biden's situation here. He no longer has the support he once had. Almost anyone would do at least as well as Biden is doing now. And it'll only get worse for him.
The Democrats need to switch to a contested convention as fast as possible. Other hopefuls need to start talking as though Biden is already out, and make their case for the nomination.
I think it's the exact opposite. With biden or kamala trump has the best chance. Any biden supporting group who would jump over to trump or not vote if biden pulled out, I think would be minimal. Nobody is energized for biden, everyone is worried about trump.
If he did drop out for someone else, younger and able to speak clearly, I think we'd have a wave of enthusiasm. Imagine another debate with trump and a younger well spoke replacement, trump would be trounced.
Bring in any of the potentials mentioned (except kamala, I can't stress this enough), and I'd feel way more excited for the election. It ain't gonna happen now, but just saying. With biden staying in people are righteously nervous.
Campaign finance laws ensure it can't be anybody but Harris. If Harris can't win an election against Trump, yet Biden might, we have to vote Biden for a Kamala presidency.
My response to that would be that in 2020 he had the weakest campaign and still had the majority of voters rally behind him.
The person with the second most support in the party is just as old and is continuing to endorse Biden.
Anybody but Harris at the top of the ticket as a replacement means whoever gets the nomination will have a billion dollar deficit in running against Trump, meaning they have no shot at winning (seeing that they would be running against the only person in modern history who has won an election despite raising less money).
If Biden's mind is as bad as we think it is, Kamala has been acting as president. She's been a fairly good president, all things considered.
If Biden can't win this, nobody in the roster can.
Nobody begins to tackle the constitutionality of Biden leaving after some of the primaries have closed. Every primary that has closed will not have had the opportunity to vote for whoever replaces Biden. The right will rip us a new one for installing a candidate without voting for them and for once they'd be right. With democracy on the line we cannot forgo democracy.
It's not entirely democratic at the convention, even in a typical election cycle. Recall that 15% of the delegates are "unpledged party leaders and elected officials" (superdelegates).
That aside, I don't think there's a constitutional issue here with respect to replacing Biden. If Dems decided to select the candidate via musical chairs or Parcheesi, to my knowledge that's a party matter (though voters would undoubtedly take a dim view of such antics).
There are no constitutional implications to a party's nomination process so long as it doesn't violate the law with regard to discrimination and the like. If Biden withdrew you get a brokered convention. If he withdrew after being nominated, the party's rules would place his VP nominee at the top of the ticket (although ballots would likely still have his name due to state laws and logistics).
Clooney has known Biden for decades and just a few months ago organized a huge event for him....
“It’s devastating to say it, but the Joe Biden I was with three weeks ago at the fund-raiser was not the Joe ‘big F-ing deal’ Biden of 2010,” Clooney wrote. “He wasn’t even the Joe Biden of 2020. He was the same man we all witnessed at the debate.”
Ozma may be an anti-Biden partisan amplifying these calls for his own purposes, but these are significant voices. The fact that these dissenting voices are being raised at this point says that, regardless of what the ratio of political-theatre-to-reality is on Biden's health, the electoral calculus Biden must make regarding whether he should continue running or support a replacement is changing.