Hopeful Jonas recovered after all the injuries, but I somehow doubt it that he'll be at 100% after those injuries without much time to recover. While I'm rooting for PogRog, I fear a repeat of Giro, where Pog dominated and made it boring to watch. Or perhaps Remco will kick in, but then again he was also injured and didn't do well at Dauphine. What's you take?
It will be miraculous if Jonas can go toe to toe with pog. There's way more talent in the tour though, I'm holding out hope it won't be pog's playground even with his strength of team. CRod or remco or rog on a good day can give him a scare. Maybe Jorgenson? He's still on the ascendency. Outside of freak circumstances I don't believe anyone else has the chops to challenge.
I still think most likely pog wins and UAE get another podium too, but hopefully we see a bit of life in the GC battle before then. Best case Jonas clings on as he races back to form and we get the showdown we dreamed of week three.
As far as I would like to see Rigloc on the tip spot in Paris, I believe that Jonas is the only alternative to Pogacar. But we'll have to wait at least until Galibier to assess his recovery, and even if he performs well, it would not mean that he can compete all the tour.
I don't see Evenepoel as an actual GC contender, he won a not very contended Vuelta, but he has not proven good enough in other races, specially on the greatest mountains.
I have some confidence on Roglic, I would say that he is a bit below Jonas and Tadej, but he is very competitive and he knows his abilities very well. This year he has focused on the tour and it seems that he is ready.
Also, I like C Rodriguez and Jorgenson, but I think that they stull need another steep up to be able to win the Tour. Anyway, you never know what Visma can do.
For the rest, there are some solid top-10 contenders.
But in the end everything will depend on the recovery of Pogacar from the efforts he made at the Giro and the form of Vingegaard.
Vingegaard told Australian media that he was not at his best and just happy to be there competing for the podium. The journalist he gave the interview to suspects Visma are playing mind games with their rivals and that they are quietly confident about their chances. They have been playing around a bit on social media too.