Bulletins and News Discussion from March 17th to March 23rd, 2025 - The Kafue River Dies - COTW: Zambia

Image is of the breach in the tailings dam near Kitwe.

On February 18th, 50 million liters of acidic waste from a copper mine was accidentally released into the Kafue River after a tailings dam collapsed. The Kafue River stretches for a thousand miles across Zambia and a majority of the country - millions of people - rely on it, for both the economy and drinking water.

The results have already been catastrophic. The water supply for the city of Kitwe, home to 700,000 people, was completely shut off. As the wave of contamination moved downstream, a wave of death accompanied it as dead fish dotted the river surface. The government is dropping lime into the river to try and counteract the acid with an alkali and neutralize the water, but the tailings also contain toxic heavy metals that will undoubtably seep into the nearby environment and affect the area for years to come.

A considerable portion of the media attention to the accident has been devoted to the fact that the mine was Chinese-owned, as well as China's broader influence and investment in the region. Western anti-China propaganda aside, it has been clear to those in the know that these mines have been badly managed and needlessly dangerous for years now, and it is disappointing - to say the least - to see disasters of this magnitude occur from Chinese businesses. Hopefully this prompts a wave of investigations into China-owned mine managers all around the continent, who will then hopefully face real consequences for their actions.

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The first footage has been released, Xcancel mirror of the US Air Force, Navy or Marine Corps using APKWS laser guided rockets to shoot down Ansarallah (known as the Houthis in western media) drones and cruise missiles. I was talking a few days ago about how this was already happening, but now it's confirmed by video footage from CENTCOM themselves.
What is APKWS? To put it simply, APKWS is a conversion kit that turns unguided Hydra-70 rockets (of which 5 million exist) into laser guided short range missiles. Similar to how a Paveway kit turns an unguided bomb into a laser guided bomb, or a JDAM kit turns an unguided bomb into a GPS guided bomb, APKWS turns unguided rockets into guided missiles. APKWS was first designed only to be used against ground targets, but the Ukrainians, when firing them from their VAMPIRE ground and sea based launch systems, proved that it can be used successfully against cruise missiles and drones, and as a result the US military is doing the same, and even planning modifications to APKWS to make it even more effective against air targets, such as adding infrared terminal guidance.
Ukrainian VAMPIRE system taking out Russian cruise missiles and drones
Xcancel mirror

Why is this significant? For two reasons: cost and magazine size. APKWS is very cheap, the guidance section only costs $15 000, and the warheads and rocket motors, of which millions are currently in US stockpiles, only cost a few thousand dollars each, for a total cost of between $20 000 - $25 000 per missile/guided rocket. In comparison, an AIM-9 Sidewinder missile launched from US fighter aircraft costs upwards of $400 000 each, and the ship launched SM series of interceptors cost anywhere from $2 -$9 million, depending on the model. So this is a very significant cost saving for the US, the APKWS guided rockets might even be cheaper than the drones and cruise missiles they shoot down.
The second is magazine size. While a fighter aircraft can only carry a handful of sidewinders and other air to air missiles at a time, it can carry dozens of APKWS rockets at a time, as these rockets can be fitted on seven shot rocket pods, which only take up one hardpoint each. This F/A-18 has 14 APKWS guided rockets on one wing (two 7 shot launchers), for a total of 28 guided rockets if the loadout is replicated symmetrically on the other wing. Note with the adaptor, that two seven shot rocket pods are only using a single hardpoint.
These two factors make defending against drone swarms a possibility, both in terms of being cost effective, and in terms of the amount of guided rockets available at a single given time for intercept missions. This could be why drone and cruise missile attacks on US Navy ships are not as effective as before. While in Ukraine the use of APKWS guided rockets is limited to their ground and sea based launching systems, such as technicals and fastboats, the United States does not have such limitations and can fit these to aircraft, enabling defence over a much wider area. The APKWS guided rockets themselves have a very short range, only a few kilometres/miles, meaning that they can only defend a very limited area from ground/sea based launch platforms. So mounting them to a fighter aircraft vastly increases the area that can be defended by them, and detection capabilities for drones out of range of the APKWS (fighter aircraft have their own radar).
Make no mistake, the US military is learning their lessons when it comes to the Ukraine war, the confrontations with Ansarallah in the Red Sea, and defending against Iranian ballistic missiles.
- This is a pretty important development. The cost of interceptors is less important than their availability. Good catch.
  
  It's quite a depressing development from a resistance perspective (which I guess almost all of us share) because it means now that the US Carrier Strike Group (CSG) only needs to remain out of range of Ansarallah's anti ship ballistic missiles(ASBMs), (max range 500km for Tankeel/Raad-500, maybe 700km if Iran gives them Zolfogar Basir), and that the CSG can just absorb the long range drone and cruise missile attacks, the few that get through the air patrols can be dealt with by the ships themselves. While remaining outside of the range of ASBMs is blunting the CSG's attacks and US airstrikes as the US fighter planes have to fly longer distances, airstrikes are still happening, and the CSG is not being driven to the extreme north of the Red Sea or anything like that anymore (aside from maybe day two of this lastest conflict).
  Editing to say that satellite imagery from the 19th March 2025 has confirmed this, the USS Harry Truman is operating off of the coast of Jeddah, around 700-800km from Yemen. So outside of ASBM range (Zolfogar Basir has a 700km range), but within the range of cruise missiles and drones. This explains why Ansarallah did not launch any ASBMs over the past two nights, the CSG was out of range.
  
  The solution is probably to give Ansarallah longer range ASBMs, but that's an idea with its own big issues. The short range ASBMs Ansarallah currently use don't have any midcourse guidance updates, they fire them at the general location the enemy ship is expected to be at, the Manoeuvrable Re-entry Vehicle (MaRV) of the missile does a pull up manoeuvre and performs a short glide phase, in which it's terminal guidance systems (EO/IR sensors or radar) locate the target and dive down to it. This all happenes in a handful of minutes, the Tankeel/Raad 500 has a burnout velocity of Mach 8 (2.7 kilometres per second), and an impact velocity of probably around Mach 1.5-2. A ship can't move that far in that time, which is why this approach works, from missile launch to glide phase, the ship can't move out of the effective range of the terminal guidance systems on the MaRV. Once you start trying to hit ships over longer ranges, the ships can move further, and you need midcourse guidance updates to ensure that the MaRV arrives in a close enough proximity to the target for the terminal guidance systems to work. Who is going to provide that midcourse guidance? Iran with their own ships, or Iran giving Ansarallah long range radars that datalink to the ASBMs? I think the US would consider that an act of war. I also don't think Ansarallah has this capability themselves. China's ASBMs use AWACS aircraft to provide midcourse guidance updates for instance. That's a capability not currently in the possession of Iran or Ansarallah.
  Another solution would be really fast (Mach 3+) cruise missiles or really stealthy subsonic cruise missiles. But I don't see Russia or China giving these weapons to Ansarallah.
  
  how about underwater drones, like a submarine version of their drone boats?
- The only recourse Ansarallah has that I can see given their current technological limitations would be to increase the quantity of missile deployments (any missiles or drones), screen attacks through decoy maneuvers to confuse and distract radar teams/aircraft and stagger attacks to disrupt sleep/rotation schedules on US naval ships.....keeping all this up continuously day after day
  And most importantly threaten critical infrastructure across the Peninsula to increase the scale of the zone of engagement, every time the beast turns its head or wanders over to a decoy it burns calories
  
  And most importantly threaten critical infrastructure across the Peninsula to increase the scale of the zone of engagement
  Abdul-Malik al-Houthi gave a speech yesterday specifically calling out all the Arab regimes for collaborating with Israel, so I guess striking them is an escalation option they are considering, and it makes sense given their capabilities. A lot easier to hit a static oil field or refinery than a moving ship.

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