Population tipping point could arrive by 2030: global fertility will drop below replacement level years earlier than expected.
Population tipping point could arrive by 2030: global fertility will drop below replacement level years earlier than expected.
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Replacement level for whom? To sustain the current population? Population growth? Status quo? Corporations?
Not sure any of these things are needed to be sustained at the levels we are currently at.
Someone please explain the detrimental repercussions of not having an equal to or greater than replacement level.
sure, i'll try to explain briefly
"infrastructure", i.e utilities, transport, bureacracy etc is built to support a fixed population within a city. when the population increases, you have to build more infrastructure to support this new population. this part is easy, you expand your cities at their edges, extend the utilities, and set up satellite bureacracy offices if needed
the tricky part is when you lose population. the correct move would be to demolish this infrastructure and scale back. trouble is, not only would this be wasteful, but it would also leave gaps in cities, since population decline doesn't happen uniformly from a city edge. where exactly, do you demolish the infrastructure?
it would be nice if we live in a theoretical world where, as population decreases, the cities magically shrink at their edges, and suburban residents move closer in to fill the gaps. this is not how populations deplete from an area though (example: detroit, 1950 - 2020)
you will struggle to convince a suburban homeowner at the edge, to sell up and move to one of the gaps left behind by population loss. if we stop short of rewriting laws to force this population transfer, the end result is that you are left with a "swiss cheese" city. houses and settlements will be spread so thinly that becomes impossible for city goverments to provide "infrastructure" without providing it at a loss. your local goverment will then take debt and bankrupt, the infrastructure will collapse through lack of maintenance, and then the remaining population suffers big time
i want to note that i am not using this as an argument to support population growth. i am only stating the big, big problem that needs to be tackled somehow, concerning population loss. some big-brains are going to have to work this problem through, fast!
side note: interestingly, most NA cities are spread out and sprawled so much that they are suffering unaffordable infrastructure bills already, despite not suffering the effects of population loss. goodness knows how these places will fare when population loss actually hits...
This is one problem, but there’s a much bigger problem: the ratio of elderly (retired) to workers will increase substantially. Unless there is some AI productivity boost, many young people will have to work in health care/elderly care and standards of living will deteriorate A LOT.
the tricky part is when you lose population. the correct move would be to demolish this infrastructure and scale back. trouble is, not only would this be wasteful, but it would also leave gaps in cities, since population decline doesn’t happen uniformly from a city edge. where exactly, do you demolish the infrastructure?
Nah, it's simple. You just redraw the city limits. Tell the "winners" they're now part of the countryside and reduce their public transport to one train per hour.
The problem will solve itself :P
People in the US don’t use public transport, and would be incredibly happy to not have to pay more taxes.
I’d pay more taxes if I didn’t have to drive everywhere
Pretty sure in some of the cities they do. Yeah, I know in most of the country they don't believe in public transport. But crucially, the topic hadn't gone full "USA", at least not yet. So, still applicable.
If only there was public transport to be taken away
houses and settlements will be spread so thinly that becomes impossible for city goverments to provide "infrastructure" without providing it at a loss
That's been proven wrong by history. Population density was far lower 150 years ago and there was no problem with infrastructure despite everyone being more spread out before urbanization. Really spread out requires even less infrastructure today. Everyone in my neighborhood is on 3+ acres so water is from self maintained wells (private paid to install and replace every 20 years) and many have solar.
Heh infrastructure from 150 years ago is vastly different than infrastructure today. 150 years ago you didn't have buried electricity lines, telecom lines and fiber, robust water and sewage solutions. Those things need regular service and replacement. If your population goes down that means your revenue to pay for those things go down as well.
In the modern world the only thing that's needed for a rural home is fiber and a road. Solar provides power. Well and septic are cheaper than city water/sewer. If people have their own land, they don't have to get food shipped from hundreds of miles away. More is grown locally.
i do get where you're coming from, population density was less than it was. as a consequence, people had less access to resources. i would argue as a result of this, they also had less quality of life. the reason that urbanization has been a trend over the past 150 years that shows no sign of stopping, is because population urbanization is a multiplier on the effectiveness of quality of life, because it makes the cost to maintain higher quality of life cheaper per unit of life.1
for example, yes, you can supply a neighbourhood with individual wells, granted. but surely it would be cheaper for your community to build one massive well, and then everyone in the neighbourhood can collect the water at the well? the community could all pay their share to maintain the well, and then the per unit cost of the well would be cheaper to build and maintain.
whilst you're at it, since there's only one well, you can put in a really fancy pump and purifier system. a really high quality rig, with low cost to run. that way, you only need to maintain 1 efficient pump and purifier, rather than 20 or 30 less efficient ones that would cost more fuel to run as an aggregate. the unit cost per person of the pump and purifier setup would be cheaper to run and maintain.
if you wanna go really bougie, you could all chip in to collectively install pipes to every house so that your local community doesn't have to walk to the well. if you build slightly more pipes than you need, this would act as insurance so that if one pipe breaks, you don't all lose supply, and the water could flow round... other pipes... and... ...wait this just sounds like a municipal supply but with extra steps...
i know i'm being facetious, but the reality is that it is just not measurably cheaper to live out in isolated pockets, through supplying individual infrastructure on a per person basis.2 economies of scale dictates this relationship.3 it's inescapable.4. it's inevitable.5 by all means, if it's the only option someone has to provide utilities for themself, they should use it. but let's not pretend that it's more expensive to group up, live closer, and share the cost burden through communal resources.
i will trust you are aware of "economies of scale", but i have linked a video here for those who are not aware, and also don't want to read papers like a total nerd. ☝️🤓
[1]. (??? what would the units for quality of life per capita be i wonder? joy/kg? lol)
[2]. "The results indicate that cost savings can be achieved by increases in the scale of production...", from "Productivity growth, economies of scale and scope in the water and sewerage industry: The Chilean case", by Molinos-Senante and Maziotis, accessible at https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8162666/
[3]. "...more spread out settlement (“Dispersion”) leads to diseconomies in distribution...", from "Economies of scale, distribution costs and density effects in urban water supply: a spatial analysis of the role of infrastructure in urban agglomeration", by Hugh B., accessible at https://etheses.lse.ac.uk/285/
[4]. "...agglomeration economies make firms and workers more productive in dense urban environments than in other locations.", from "The economics of urban density", by Duranton and Pupa, accssible at https://diegopuga.org/research.html#density
[5]. "Econometric analysis of the data from the Big Mac price survey revealed a significant positive effect of being in a rural area on the increase in prices.", from "Identifying the size and geographic scope of short-term rural cost-of-living increases in the United States", by Díaz-Dapena, Loveridge & Paredes, accessible at "https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00168-023-01244-z"
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I don't know about Chilean economies of scale. The article you linked was about privatization of utilities and the economies of scale in that sector.
What I do know is that in the US suburbs, my total water costs are much lower than when I lived in the city. Running clean water pipes to homes and sewage pipes is extraordinarily expensive.
Flint Michigan is looking at $600m to replace pipes to 43k homes. That's $14k per home and then they still have to pay for water and sewer.
The average cost for a well and sceptic is $12k and then it's free. Average water bill is $1400 a year for urban residents.
If combining utilities was cost effective, my neighborhood would have done it when it was built. It's the same with gas lines.
yep, you're entirely right. for your area, it's more effective to run wells for each person. the frustrating part being that, it implies that the city has been designed so, so badly, that individuals can't actually share resources, without the per capita price going up if they do so.
even without depopulation, that's a huge governmental failure. if individuals are having to run all their own utility setups and infrastructure, is that even a "city"? it sounds more like rural living but it's all vaguely connected. presumably as a result of this low density, you have higher ongoing costs elsewhere? i.e commutes to work, cost of food, etc
if not, then it could be one of those taxpayer-subsidised things, where it feels cheaper for each resident, but the reality is that someone else is paying for it. i'm not good at wording what i mean in this case, but i will pass you to this video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Nw6qyyrTeI) to show it instead, he does a better job of explaining what i'm talking about
anyhow... that's crazy! it's entirely the thing i'm worried about seeing replicated large scale as a result of a reduction in population
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Interesting. My water bill is around $800 per year, and that includes sewerage service. That well would take 15 years to reach cost parity, and that's leaving out the septic system.
And wells are decidedly not free after installation, if my parents' experience is anything to go by. (Nothing catastrophic, to they just had to pay for pump maintenance occasionally.)
Not only that, but we're simultaneously talking about how we're adding a force multiplier to labor with the advent and improvement of AI.
We're literally in the process of decoupling social progress and productivity from reliance on population, and juggling the impending social burden that's going to create if jobs decrease accordingly, yet we should be worried we're not popping out kids to maintain population growth?
Why the fuck should we create larger generations of unemployable humans for the future we're building?
Especially when having a kid is one of the worst possible actions you could take regarding environmental impact, and the people already alive are facing quite serious environmental consequences for such impacts.
I'll take a crack.
Slow population loss, while concerning for policy makers, can be managed theoretically by moving money around. Taxation, subsidies, etc.
The US is currently at 1.6 fertility rate. 2.1 is replacement rate, so a pretty steep drop of 25% loss per generation. But we have substantial immigration to make up the shortfall. It's an issue, and it's trending down, but manageable for now.
Fertility rates of 1 or less are terrifying. Each generation is half the size of the one before. Half as many workers supporting the elderly. Retirement/pension systems will be strained then collapse, allowing retirees to fall into poverty. Half as many workers to maintain infrastructure, half as many doctors, half as many nurses, half as many experts in every field, means half as many researchers making discoveries and breakthroughs.
God forbid you go to war and have half as many soldiers to call on, from a workforce already stretched beyond any before. It's a recipe for mass suffering in a scale never before seen.
South Korea and Japan are currently below 1. China might be even lower. People are, generally, resilient and resourceful. Adjustments will be made. People will work into their 70's and 80's because there is work to be done. But there will be a great deal of suffering.