Microsoft's draconian Windows 11 restrictions will send an estimated 240 million PCs to the landfill when Windows 10 hits end of life in 2025
Microsoft's draconian Windows 11 restrictions will send an estimated 240 million PCs to the landfill when Windows 10 hits end of life in 2025
But the progress must go on, right?
Microsoft, doing it's part to make the world a better place.
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No it won't.
240 million grandmas, cheapskate businesses, and cash-strapped public schools will continue to use whatever operating system their computers already have, forever, until they break, security implications be damned.
Windows
10XPTook this picture a couple of days ago:
JSYK a lot of embedded devices use XP and 7, and some of those manufacturers pay for extended support. The military also pays for extended support for XP
But yeah, most of those devices are not patched and vulnerable AF.
I always laugh at, after being in the military and a government employee, things being marketed as military grade. So what, it runs on windows server 2003 and hasn't been in production for 20 years?
From what little I've seen, there's a divide between old and new tech.
Like how headset visual tracking for attack copters was a thing already back when Nintendo released the Virtual Boy, alongside the fact that there is still equipment in service running software that had to be millennium bug patched.
My mother-in-law ran an Army reserve center in the 1990s. They were still using DOS once XP came out because the Army wouldn't pay for the upgrade.
I was aware of that, but had imagined that newer machines would have slowly migrated to something else. I'm also always astonished by the fact these are running full OSes.
No manufacturer wants to take the risk to reinvent a wheel that may be less secure.
I mean, yeah it would be ideal of the manufacturer created their own OS but I also know that nearly everyone hires the cheapest, least skilled devs for projects like this.
And not all of them are full OSs, XP had a bunch of creative ways you could remove system components to make basically a kiosk with almost no other functions.
i saw a kiosk once booting opensuse
This is a huge business opportunity for someone with the know-how. They should offer a consulting service that does the following:
- Catalogs the software your company is using.
- Identifies which ones have native Linux versions, which ones work well under WINE, and which ones will need to be replaced with either a different native application or an online equivalent.
- Installs and configures Linux with a Windows-like UI on your old systems, and gets them set up with the replacement software.
Offer a support contract that severely undercuts anything Microsoft is
gougingselling. Offer basic training, too.Anyone who does that can make bank.
Would also need to get a burner phone number w/ answering machine to take calls from 240 million grandmas, cheapskate businesses and cash-strapped public schools for any & all tech support questions until the end of time, because if there was an issue with system stability in any way whatsoever, or if the router went down or the printer stopped working, they'd assume it was the fault of 'the guy who changed everything'.
Linux is great & everything, but this sounds like a recipe for utter disaster, not a way to make an easy buck.
I can't agree with this more. People like to sell Linux as a magic bullet, but it does not and will not everything everyone needs without maintenance and people really like to hand wave or downplay that need.
Sure, you could find a solution for what they're using now. What happens when they need something else and they're so tech illiterate that they don't even know what you did to their machine? They wouldn't even know how to install new software, and if they did, they wouldn't know they need to click the Linux version, etc. It's not always about feasibility and available options, it's often about the fact that people just won't fucking know what to do. Even if you assume there are enough options available, they won't know how to do so.
And every step Microsoft takes to shoot themselves in the foot, and every step Linux takes to make this easier, everyone comes screaming about how much this could change things.
But until Linux has a HUGE market share - like in the 30-70 percent range - developers are not going to take it seriously and alleviate this process. Even with how well MacOS does, this is not even a solved problem entirely there - there are still hang ups and still software that doesn't get released for mac. Linux would have to pass where Apple is today for this to become remotely accessible to an every day person.
And even THEN there's the question of different Linux distros.
Most people only need internet access. Look at Chromebooks.
While I don't really disagree, look at the market share of Chromebooks. If "most people" only needed internet access, "most people" would be on Chromebooks by now. It's not like they're unknown anymore.
Not really how the market works. Inertia is huge, brand image (Apple) is huge, social pressure (Apple) is huge, simply not knowing is huge. The newcomer always has the disadvantage to get converts. (Not to mention many of the people that only need internet have iPads only.)
Yes, but Chromebooks are far from "newcomers" these days. They've been out a while. Many people who grew up using them in schools are now making their own purchasing decisions, etc.
Comparatively they are the newcomer by far. Remember when they first came out they were considered failed, then it took what 8 years later for them to start to become adopted much at all.
Yup their own purchasing decision and over half will have had bad experiences with the cheapest, slowest, pos Chromebooks their school bought. And they will want that sex appeal, look at me, luxury, Apple.
I lived in this town and there was this"computer and pawn" place. They did this to people's computers. I constantly had people come into the computer place I worked at very confused. Not knowing why they needed a password to install things, where is Microsoft office, how do I print, etc. Most of these people didn't have the money to put windows back on, but, those that did, did real quick. All this did was scare people away. If we started replacing Linux on people's computers it needs to come with a intro tech support plan and a short intro class explaining the basics.
At this point the people that benefit the most easily are those who only need email, Web browsing and or are old. People who work off their machine are going to use Windows and that former demographic usually just use their phones or a tablet now. At least in the US
Yeah hard pass.
Will I take advantage of the heavily discounted used market this causes? Maybe. (Assuming they manage to actually convince people they should move to 11, which also sucks.) But there's good reason not to be IT for people who can't manage it themselves. It's a huge headache.
Easy fix: don't offer support
More expensive easy fix: contract with a call center in India to do "support" for you.
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Support is a major cost/pain point, that Linux pushers just don't get.
They've never worked in enterprise (or hell, even in SMB IT). Moving from windows doesn't make sense. It's a lot if cost, up front, to take on lots of risk.
I'm not sure Linux will ever significantly compete with Windows for the desktop. At a minumim it would require a single shell to become dominant, in addition to all the compatibility issues you mention.
Then there's management: Windows has SCOM, with a well-established app packaging/distribution model, settings config, user management (AD/Exchange), etc, etc.
Linux is fantastic as a base OS for other stuff. Like Proxmox/TrueNAS, or to use as a server with containerized services. There's a million ways Linux is the answer, a much better one, than Windows - largely in the server/services hosting realm
You never used Linux then. There are well defined packages in the way Windows is trying to get with their store apps and chocolatey can mimic if you build the packages. You could also look up containers, flatpaks etc. Similar to how Windows has msis and store apps and exes.
Linux has Foreman plus puppet. Or chef or Ansible. You can also use those on Windows.
The idea that a company could not decide their shell standards or their support company or people for Linux is like saying they can't handle the competition in fleet vehicles or cloud providers or pen companies.
Like he said as the second sentence of his comment...
You've never worked in enterprise then.
These solutions are skipping the majority of the core problems he mentioned. And even the problem you're trying to solve here isn't even fully solved by this solution. You're taking a narrow sliver of one point in his argument and arguing about that and just tossing out the rest. Even if we accepted your proposal, Linux still isn't enough of an answer here.
What are the core problems I am skipping? That people like to bitch about Microsoft just like they bitch about gas prices but don't take any steps to address the issue?
Look we suck it up on Windows for very specific legacy software, but every year more and more LoB apps are web apps, either we write them that way or they're cloud versions. These all work fine on Linux and Mac, you do not need Windows.
We are even seeing companies like Autodesk provide some products on Mac, and there are competitors on Linux too.
If you actually used Microsoft in the enterprise you would also be up to speed on how they are pushing against "over management" of the fleet, and you should just use update rings and intune and stop wasting time with SCCM / MCM / Whatever it's called this year. This argument about managibility is Microsoft 2005, not Microsoft 2025. Linux has more management now than Microsofts modern management suite, by design. And if you're using 3rd party to fix that on windows, you are not just fighting Microsoft but you can not then disregard 3rd party on Linux.
The problem with this argument is not that I am saying you can do everything you can do with Windows on Linux, just like there's a lot you can't do on Windows you can on Linux. I am saying that it's practically like Dodge vs Toyota trucks. There's way more of an overlap than people like to admit.
Maybe there is a specific app you all are thinking of that you need Windows for, but I don't actually think the average person needs Windows anymore except inertia. And the needs are going down as more stuff is cloud available.
Lol, ok, sure,right.
Show me a company that's willing to take the risks you're talking about. Because it may work today, but what happens tomorrow when they acquire another company with systems that simply aren't linux-friendly
Laughable.
Go home, let the adults talk. Kids like you always come in with grandiose ideas thinking everyone else just doesn't "get it". No, we've seen these ideas, but there are risks, requirements, etc that you simply aren't aware of, yet in your hubris think you know better.
"Never used Linux", really son? Had my first UNIX class when you were shitting in your diaper, and was doing Fortran on a Sperry Rand UNIVAC well before you were born.
Any other snarky comebacks?
Oh, Linux now has package management... Like Windows did pretty much 30 years ago. Wow, yea, you really told me.
Now wait, when you pull a package, which shell is it expecting? How are dependencies controlled in your business environment? Oh, you have to build that in your distribution system? Why would anyone switch, do all that work, when they already have a Windows infrastructure that does the same?
Oh, wait, where's CAD? How about supporting, software with license dongles that control CNC machines? Oh, yea, practically no vendor supports Linux this way.
Are you paying for all your users to learn a new system? How about all the poor performance from end users because things work differently now?
How about the thousands of spreadsheets in a company that now get mangled by Open/Libre, let alone the inability of either to handle tables (which basically every Excel spreadsheet has).
Tell me, what do you do when you meet that must-have app, with zero choice (say, regulatory compliance) that lacks a Linux option. Oh, and doesn't like RDP?
Let's go into a legal environment and push Linux.. Oh you'll love that.
The way you overlook basically everything speaks volumes.
I've been hearing "Year of the Linux Desktop" since, well, forever. After 25 years it still ain't happened.
@FonsNihilo @kescusay this is painfully true. I remember some well meaning techies wired up an entire lab for the school district once, included free repurposed PCs running Linux. Didn't take long before the district paid HP to take all of it away and give us the crappiest speced machines tax money could buy. But hey, that deal gave the football team money to AstroTurf the field (with a donation from HP)🤦♂️
Your post reminded me. I worked tech support for years at an ISP and we would not help people with Linux systems. Only Windows or Macs. Android on a cell but only help with connecting to Wi-Fi and very basic settings up email if they used the ISP email.
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I think your info is out of date, at least from what I see. Schools are going to Chromebooks because that's all the budget allows. I think it's going to be scary when these kids enter the workforce and can't use Windows office.
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Sigh, yes everyone knows that ChromeOS is built on linux. That's not what people mean when they say running linux.
AFAIK Chromebooks can run Office 365 (the online one, whatever it's called now). Microsoft had to do that to try to keep Office relevant and accessible.
How do you break away from something you were programmed to use?
You don't, you get the next generation to use your product first. They start with chromebooks in elementary school now. That's the first computer kids will have and likely have all the way to grade 12 for school (after that is who knows what). Kids today will be programmed to use Chromebooks, not windows. That's my point.
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Have you used a modern version of Linux or Windows? You can basically use most Linuxes like Android with a guide app store, and there's almost no way to break it. Windows also will still let you be admin and let you break it. Neither is particularly easy to break anymore.
Peripherals certainly do not just work on Windows. More and more I fight with getting anything to work on a clean Windows OS install. First I have to go find a network driver and copy it via USB. Then hope Windows will find drivers from there, which often it doesn't get good ones for say Nvidia. Printers often take me to the manufacturer website and hope. For things like mice or Wi-Fi adapters Linux just works, same hunt for less standard stuff.
Maybe I just deal with a wider array of hardware but to say it plug and play on windows and not Linux is just not true.
For someone who just uses Facebook...there is no learning Linux. I moved my mom from XP to XFCE and Firefox just copied right over. She has a lot less issues with Enterprise Linux than she did with XP and Facebook still just works like 8 years later.
Have you used a modern version of Linux or Windows? You can basically use most Linuxes like Android with a guide app store, and there's almost no way to break it. Windows also will still let you be admin and let you break it. Neither is particularly easy to break anymore.
It's still something that can happen. I've run into an issue trying to install Ubuntu onto a PC which worked fine on the live USB but installed the incorrect Nvidia driver and ended up failing to boot. Took me a whole day, even as a software engineer, to fix it and even then, that's just to get it to display, I had to do a lot more digging to even get CUDA to run on it since I was still using an incorrect driver. I'm fine with that but I can't imagine most people are.
Even if Windows doesn't get the best driver for the job, more often than not it will still somewhat function for the hardware that most people use.
It's a lot better than it used to be but there's still issues here and there. For the average user, better the devil you know than the one you don't.
Well it's not like Windows hasn't bricked some pcs with their driver updates. It does just happen sometimes. The argument I'm making is if I went to Burger King and every time I went I was disappointed in the food quality, price and speed of service I would eventually risk Wendys.
Heck my family was GM but after years of breakdowns and getting stranded by 3 different GM cars and weird / bad performance in a 4th, we changed car manufacturers.
Sometimes you ought to give up on the Devil you know if it's costing you too much money and time.
On an individual level, having a computer is better than not having one. Even if you need a different OS.
On a societal level, we should want to limit both ewaste and insecure OSs. We could legislate MS and other vendors not to do what Microsoft is doing here. But we probably don't want to legislate updates for 20 years or something. (maybe we do IDK). The more likely thing is kicking known EOL OSs off the internet, but then we're back to ewaste.
I get your analogy but it's a way larger jump going from Windows to Linux versus McDonald's to Linux. To bring it back to what we were talking about, I think it's more that the switch might end up costing more money and time because realistically, most people are gonna disregard the EOL status because "it still works and I can still use it". Those who do switch are probably those who require or want an upgrade of some form.
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I think you don't have any idea on what modern Linux desktop is doing. For most people, installing any sort of drivers on Linux is something of the past. If you use a beginner's friendly distro like Linux Mint or PopOS stuff like Nvidea drivers will be taken care of or you're guided through it. Mint offers Timeshift out of the box and guides you to set it up for easy restores may you break your system one day (or an update does).
In theory, the store has virtually every application your version supports and that you ever want to use. No hunting on the internet etc. With Flatpaks, even dependency issues (however rare nowadays) are essentially a thing of the past. The user doesn't need to know what that means, they can just click install on their application store as they're already familiar with on their mobile device.
Doing more "complicated" stuff and breaking it is just simply your fault then. I have worked end user customer support and repair for a few years and shit like that happens all the time on Windows. Very few clean or wholly functional Windows installations I have seen. The UAC just presents you "yes/no" and install whatever the fuck you want. People click yes on everything.
I have a little headphone amp that has always been a huge fight to get to work on Windows with its drivers, but on Linux I later realized, wait, it just worked. Since Windows 10 drivers have been much better on Windows too, credit where it is due.
Linux has made enormous strides the last couple of years of becoming more general user friendly. And it's only getting better.
Does this mean it's all roses and happiness? No, of course not. Once a driver doesn't quite work and you don't have the Mint driver utility to help you out it's a bit of a pain. You don't need the CLI on desktop at all nowadays, but guides on how to do things usually are, because it's universal. Problem is, the CLI scares people. Linux DEs are not Windows. It's simply not the same, however much Mint is friendly to it, or Zorin's efforts, it's still different. There's no hardware compatibility guarantees on any system, if you're not using a Tuxedo, System76 or Framework system. App compatibility and sometimes there's no app available. Wine and Bottles work pretty well, but that's a little more advanced.
It's not a drop-in replacement. That's just how it is.
In an enterprise and business environment it's still tricky. For personal use for a user that will happily use a Chromebook, they can use a suitable Linux distro (that's literally what ChromeOS is btw, it being able to run Android apps was added later, it's not Android). Yeah, don't install Arch or god forbid, Gentoo lmao (unless you wanna have a laugh). If they do email, web-browsing, etc, and they are okay with some change, then Mint will most likely serve them pretty well.
Also, Linux runs Chrome just fine? However much it pains me, I can even install Edge right from the store lol.
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I understand what you were trying to say just fine and have responded to all of it. You choosing to ignore it doesn't make that less so.
Literally the statement was just Facebook. She doesn't install software, nor did she on Windows. She uses Facebook. She never used Explorer so Firefox on XP to Firefox on Linux was no learning. The performance was better on Linux.
I have corrupted Windows plenty of times over the years. You're just used to Windows so intuitively know how to fix it or not break it again.
The problem with modern computers is many don't take a ethernet cable. They only have Wi-Fi. Maybe you are buying ones speced with a NIC but that's a special order for most laptops, and likewise I can special order for Linux.
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The point is, if you buy a pre set up laptop with Linux the drivers are pre installed too. You cannot take a clean Linux install and not compare to a clean Windows install.
As to my Mom, she didn't set up Windows either. In either case you're paying someone to set it up if you're like her. Just because you already learned Windows doesn't make Linux harder, just different. Do you think an enterprise is not going to have IT in both cases? It's not like the users are setting anything.
Anyone who does that can make bank.
See, the key flaw in your plan is expecting companies to shell out to upgrade their systems. Putting aside organizations who's infrastructure can't realistically transfer to a new system without scrapping it entirely, pretty much every business will run their systems until they have literally no other choice (ie it is functionally unusable/affecting sales) instead of "losing money" upgrading. MS stopping updates won't push them over that line, at least not for a while.
… pretty much every business will run their systems until
Cousin Vinny gives them a little taste of ransomware and reminds them your upgrade plan is actually a great deal
Meh, ransomware won't really drive an upgrade plan. That's what backup is for.
Any business incompetent enough to get owned by ransomware without a recovery plan isn't exactly the type with $ to spare for a migration.
I mean, yeah, if ethics are no barrier, you could probably make it work, hah. That said, there are much better money makers at that point than being tech support for businesses to switch to Linux.
That’s actually a decent idea if people are using boilerplate windows software. Unfortunately institutional software is unlikely to cross over, and even if similar software can be found to replace private users’ needs, there is going to be resistance to change. This doesn’t even touch anyone using specialized software. The resistance will be commensurate with the differences in workflow and usage between the windows and Linux software.
I mean, the whole point is people don’t want to change. The only way you’d win people over easily is directly cloning their windows setup.
And there's a cost to that change. Reduced performance. Could easily be measured in lost $ or increased costs.
Yeah, and it's likely way less costly to the company to just buy a new win 11 computer than it is to pay an employee to train on new software. Not to mention the cost of paying someone to find someone to do a Linux conversion, paying the person doing the conversion, and the loss of productivity as the person learns. Not to mention the cost of changing IT infrastructure, hiring new IT people to manage those machines, etc.
There's a reason companies don't just switch at the drop of the hat. There's too much commitment and institutional knowledge already and moving is not a simple change.
Companies won't pay. Even SMB.
There's way too much stuff that only runs on windows, their users are used to windows.
You're telling them to spend a lot of money to transition, and take on a lot of risk.
It just ain't gonna happen.
Look at the current VMware issue to see what companies will do.
I feel the issue is if you're successful with this idea and get on radar of Microsoft, they will make sure to snatch away all deals from you by bidding even lower. They have money to lose. Small firms generally don't.
ROFL, and for a half of that cost and none of the risk, companies will just drop in new windows computers and keep the status quo...
My 76 y/o spouse loves Linux Mint. The 2017-bought desktop was deemed insufficient for Windows 11 and now runs Mint.
If all they use is a web browser and solitaire then putting them on Linux is super easy. Got my dad on Mint for years now. I recommend KPatience for solitaire needs.
If all they use is a web browser and solitaire, they should consider a tablet. Even as a techie, with many devices, I spend the most time using my iPad because it works so well for “media consumption”.
Of course it’s only 6 years old, slowing down, and is no longer supported with patches, so maybe that’s not a solution. At least it’s less to go in a landfill
yeah, other than the obvious "haha-ing in Linux" (which.. I also use Linux) - the REAL answer is people will just keep using the outdated Windows until THAT computer dies it's natural death.
When that time comes, would that create a period of insane amounts of scams?
Yes.
Also third world countries where people can't afford to spend their yearly salary on a mouse.
I wish you were right. Instead what we will likely see is an increase in year to year E-waste until the majority is phased out into land fills.
I dunno, computers aren't like phones where your provider is offering you incentives to chuck your old one every 2 years. There'll be an increase of waste from businesses for sure, but I think most people don't really pay attention to their security updates and will just keep using their pcs until they need a newer one for personal reasons (playing newer games, old one bricked, etc)
0patch offers microcode patching for EOL windows systems, I have a subscription for my Win7 gaming box and will be getting one for my win10 daily driver, because FUCK win11.
It's a good company, they've won several bounties from Microsoft for 0-day fixes and have had their code published in official microsoft updates.
ChromeOS has entered the chat
And tech-savvy windows users(those who need it) switch to windows 10 LTSC iot edition