Indiana Jones and Flash flopped hard. Could this be the beginning of the end for franchise films?
Indiana Jones and Flash flopped hard. Could this be the beginning of the end for franchise films?
For the last few years franchise movies like star wars, marvel, etc. made money regardless of quality. However now it seems like audiences are being choosier when it comes to these kinds of tentpole releases. I've seen some people online say that the movie/theater industry is losing people in general but I don't think that's the case.
Super Mario and spiderverse made a lot of money. And Oppenheimer, Barbie, and Dune seem to be tracking well. I think the problem is that people are getting sick of the same old stuff and need more than just a brand name to go to the theater. What do you you think?
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It's not superhero fatigue or franchise fatigue. It's bad writing fatigue. Seriously, I don't know why Hollywood keeps choosing terrible writers for huge projects, but as long as they are doing that they are going to keep getting what they deserve.
And speaking of huge projects, from what I've heard Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny cost $295 million to make rather than 250. And that's not counting publicity and marketing, which brings it to 400 million if not more. That means they need to make at least $800 million to break even. No matter how you slice their opening weekend, they are in huge trouble. And given that Elementals and The Little Mermaid both bombed hard along with most other Disney movies of the last few years, I'd say that Disney is in serious trouble too!
On the other hand, Guardians of the Galaxy 3 was rather well written, and from what I've heard it did rather well at the box office. Which is just more evidence that if you have a decently-written film the public WILL go and see it. We're just avoiding crap, that's all.
I'll go out on a limb and say that hauling poor old Harrison Ford away from his bong and forcing him at the age of 80 to make shitty movies is tantamount to elder abuse. As for The Flash, coddling wannabe cult leader and mental defective Ezra Miller was just the icing on the cake. The movie was just badly written.
Frantic last minute reshoots and rewrites are a dead giveaway that something is seriously wrong with a production. But that that is happening so often in Hollywood in the last several years is clear evidence that Hollywood itself has completely lost their way. I don't know if they can right that ship, and to be honest I don't much care. If they won't provide people with the good entertainment that they want, eventually somewhere else will. Maybe Bollywood or China.
As someone in the industry, the tentpole execs do not give a shit about writing or even quality. They just imagine $$$ and hate risk, so they double down on what they already know. It’s a dumb decision from the outside looking in, but they literally can’t see that. Also, in the last 10-15 years, screenwriting has developed more into a gig economy than a FT job, so even finding good writers and keeping them around is tough as hell.
Sometimes, I think I understand their place too. We're talking about really big budgets here, and while I agree that it's better to take risks so we can get amazing movies, I must imagine the dread the exec that greenlighted taika waititi thor love and thunder to do w/e he wanted.
In the end they let the director loose and still got a mediocre movie. (Maybe it was $$ successful? Somebody know?)
This was the revelation I was waiting to unfold. The best indicator that good writing has legs and bad writing flops regardless of genre or franchise these days is definitely the recent Marvel box office runs.
Ant-Man: Quantamania was mediocre and as people saw it and relayed this sentiment it lost audiences and the box office intake dropped hard -- no one wanted to spend money or time on it once word got out.
Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol 3 had the opposite happen with good writing and a rare occurrence where Disney let James Gunn do pretty much whatever he wanted. As people saw it and relayed the sentiment that it was well written and worth seeing in theaters, people flocked to it and gave it some of the strongest legs that continued to make box office money well after opening week.
Guardians 3 even got me into a theater for the first time in years because so many people said it was the one movie they recommended experiencing there instead of waiting for a Disney+ release. Well written movies are refreshing. We're bored enough with the schlock regardless of genre, but give us something with real substance and it still has a chance to excite audiences to spread the word and make money.
Speak for yourself. I've been majorly burned out on super hero movies.
Seriously, I don't know why Hollywood keeps choosing terrible writers for huge projects
Don't worry, soon Hollywood won't be choosing writers at all. (Thanks ChatGPT!)
(Obviously I agree that good writing is fundamental to the success of a movie, with few exceptions.)
As for The Flash, coddling wannabe cult leader and mental defective Ezra Miller was just the icing on the cake.
Hey, let me keep believing that it's because people for once decided to be decent and skip it because of Ezra.
If anyone is surprised by Indiana Jones failing then that is just sad. Name the last good Harrison Ford movie, I'll wait. Erza Miller was suppose to be a good pick for the younger generation but Warner Brothers forgot that the younger generation doesn't respond well to groomers and they also use TikTok. Word got out on him.
Black Adam, how many times can you watch the rock play the same character over and over. Fast X, no words needed.
Bad writers would be the main reason for failing films. Too many times you see 5-6 writers on a project, dead give away that it's going to suck. Studios also like to play the blame game for bad decisions. Why didn't anyone see the female led ghost busters? Sexism not the fact that the movie was unfunny and a train wreck.
A24 is one of the few studios that produce new and exciting movies. Something original. Even if it is something that has been done, they have a unique perspective, see parasite. Their movies always seem to over perform.
which brings it to 400 million if not more. That means they need to make at least $800 million to break even.
400 million spent means 400 million to break even, no?
Presumably 800 gross
The rumors for indy 5 were that it needed something like 900 million to break even and a billion to make any profit.
With the new report saying it was a 325 million production and a minimum 100 million promotion budget, I tend to believe them.
No. Marketing typically equals production costs. So $400mm production + $400mm marketing = $800mm breakeven.
No, 400m includes marketing budget. Reason it typically needs double (actually more like 2.5 times the gross) is that studios only get around half of box office receipts.