3d ago

Ukraine isn’t invited to its own peace talks. History is full of such examples – and the results are devastating

theconversation.com Ukraine isn’t invited to its own peace talks. History is full of such examples – and the results are devastating

A decision to negotiate over the heads of the Ukrainians would reveal just how Trump sees Ukraine and Europe.

A decision to negotiate over the heads of the Ukrainians would reveal just how Trump sees Ukraine and Europe.

Archived version: https://archive.is/newest/https://theconversation.com/ukraine-isnt-invited-to-its-own-peace-talks-history-is-full-of-such-examples-and-the-results-are-devastating-250049

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Zelenskyy has stated that he is not willing to negotiate with Putin as well as that they will not settle for less than getting back all the occupied territories including Crimea. There is no peace deal to be made with these terms as the starting point.
- Giving away conquered territory in hopes of peace is called appeasement. Historically, it doesn't go well.
  
  It worked for Finland (after the Winter War).
  
  What's the alternative here? Russians going home and giving back all the conquered territories is simply not going to happen.
  
  The alternative is making Russia getting/keeping the territory a worse option than leaving Ukraine the hell alone. I agree that the unfortunate reality is that Putin will never - can never - give up the war willingly without concessions, but the flip side to that is they'll be back for more sooner or later. We have to make the war such a bad option for Russia that Putin is deposed, whether by his oligarchs or by the Russian people. It's a difficult fight, but it's one we've fought before on 3 fronts in WWII. The difference, this time, being nukes exist and that understandably makes a lot of people nervous - but again, expansionists never stop. The confrontation has to come at some point unless we want all-out war in Europe.
  I'm far removed from the situation, so my opinion isn't worth much on this part, but I think realistically maybe there could be some concessions around Crimea for a peace deal - sort of a status quo ante or similar - but Russia would have to make some concessions in turn for Ukraine to agree (NATO peacekeeping forces in Ukraine? Still a no-go for Putin though...). Ceding Ukranian territorial losses from the current war, though, will only put off the eventual confrontation, and hurt the West in the meantime.
  
  We have to make the war such a bad option for Russia that Putin is deposed,
  You're right and it might be humanity's only chance at survival. In the post nuclear era, we must either eradicate all warmongering, or it will likely kill every single one of us.
  If Putin wins, no one else can. He chose to start a new war for personal reasons in the post nuclear age. Humanity likely cannot afford to tolerate people who do that, in a post nuclear age.
  
  I’m far removed from the situation, so my opinion isn’t worth much on this part, but I think realistically maybe there could be some concessions around Crimea for a peace deal
  If your opinion isnt worth shit dont share it, the notion that Russia will give up any territory, never mind territory it held before the invasion is counter to the reality where the entire ukraine front is currently collapsing and Zelensky isnt even being considered in peace talks because he has no position of strength due to insane losses.
  Ceding Ukranian territorial losses from the current war, though, will only put off the eventual confrontation, and hurt the West in the meantime.
  'Millions more must die for my nationalism'
  
  You realize your opinion isn't worth shit either, yeah? Maybe it's worth even less, considering where you are posting from.
  
  Only opinion that matters now is the one being signed between Russia and America; Ukraine has already lost, you're just too stupid to notice that.
  
  America doesn't have a say in the war, no matter how much Trump would like that.
  If Ukraine doesn't get a say in a peace talk, then they will just keep killing Russians until they do.
  And Europe will keep supplying them until that happens.
  
  There's nothing that can be done, Russia is winning on the battlefield. At this point negotiating suits Ukraine, not the other way around.
  
  Buying thousands of North Koreans with zero combat experience to attempt to take back land you lost in an invasion that you started... is that what winning looks like?
  
  Winning is when two global super powers carve up your country and when you arent even invited to the discussion.
  
  Russia isn't a super power.
  
  Thats why the US is talking directly with them and not Ukraine, of course; denying the material reality of the conflict is just prolonging it and needlessly killing more proles on the Ukraine side while we sabre rattle around and act like Ukraine ever had a chance in this conflict.
  
  The US is talking to Russia because the president is a verifiable Russian asset.
  
  They're holding more dirt, but taking more losses while they're economy is not doing so great. If that's what winning looks like then I wouldn't want to be a winner.
  
  Conquered territories including Kursk?
- What's the point of ceding part of your country for peace, if you get invaded again a few years later? That's not peace.
  
  There isn't. There's also no point in continuing a strategy that clearly favors Russia (they're the ones steadily gaining ground every month).
  The better strategy (which Trump almost certainly won't entertain) is to negotiate a peace now and use that time to build a robust defense-in-depth at the current border.
  It will be ugly because it will turn miles of border into a dangerous DMZ. But Russia already demonstrated that it works. Dig a crap ton of trenches. Build out bunkers and anti-tank traps. Ignore Geneva a bit and mine the crap out of the area. Lots of surveillance. Probably some experimental infrastructure to make it easier to deploy drones.
  That would also need to be coupled with commitments to build out munitions plants in Western Ukraine; primarily artillery shells and drones.
  This will work because it dramatically raises the cost of each meter of ground gained by opposing forces. Ukraine can get defensive infrastructure that they can cheaply operate, without significant external assistance.
  The downside is that Ukraine would loose parts of its territory. The upside is that it has a far better chance of keeping the territory it still has.
  
  Seems like something that's atleast worth the shot when the alternative is to continue with the ongoing war while losing more and more territory and soldiers each day. In order to prevent a war from happening again you first need to stop the war that's already going on.
  
  I feel like it might be a bit better to try to fight on until you have at least some security guarantees, so you know they just don't attack you right after regrouping than let them disarm you in name of peace and then get fucked right after by their attack.
  Leaving yourself at the mercy of your attacker is the sort of lunacy you'd only have to resort to when you have no other choice.
  
  Or your name is Trump.
  
  I don’t see how continuing the fight is going to lead to security guarantees for Ukraine. A peace deal or ceasefire could at least allow individual countries to send peacekeepers independently of NATO. There are ways to deter a future attack outside of full membership. And if a ceasefire ends up being just a chance to regroup, then at least Ukraine gets that chance as well. As we saw during Ukraine’s "counteroffensive," well-fortified positions are extremely difficult and costly to break through.
  
  Continuing fighting gives more time to get those security guarantees. A peace is worth nothing without them.
  A peace deal or ceasefire could at least allow individual countries to send peacekeepers independently of NATO
  That's assuming that's the sort of peace deal or ceasefire Russia would agree to.
  And if a ceasefire ends up being just a chance to regroup, then at least Ukraine gets that chance as well.
  Not only would that give a better position for Russia who has better means to regroup with Ukraine's support faltering, for that too, that's assuming that's the sort of peace deal or ceasefire Russia would agree to.
  If Russia did say that we should just pause the fighting, I'd imagine Ukraine would go for that. But it's not likely Russia is going to do that when they have the upper hand.
  
  Continuing fighting gives more time to get those security guarantees.
  I don't see the logic here
  
  Gives more time for negotiations
- Zelenskys voice doesn't matter. Thats the point. What matters is the people funding him with money and weapons.
  
  What, you think Ukrainians are going to stop defending their homes just because Trump stops sending them fancy weapons? That's not how this works. The war isn't going to end. It's just going to get a lot nastier.
  
  At some point all of them will die. That's how colonialism works.
  
  The power dynamic just isn't skewed enough here for that. Ukraine is not exactly a major world power, but Russia's not exactly looking like a superpower either. Even if the US switching sides is enough for them to plant a flag in Kyiv, the simple fact of the matter is that Russia does not have the capacity to occupy a country the size of Ukraine. Planting a flag in Kyiv is the EASY part. It only gets harder from there. You only have to look at any war the US has been involved in to see that in action.
  
  That's not how genocide works. After the population is gone, its easy. Look at what the US and Canada did to North America. Look at what the US is doing right now to Gaza.
  
  That's not military occupations work. There are tens of millions of people in Ukraine. Even if you could kill them at a rate of 1 per second and they never fought back that would still be decades of killing. North America started with a lower population before white guys showed up and had every plague on the planet hitting the Americas at the same time to do most of the dirty work and it still took centuries. The sheer logistics of trying to kill everyone in Ukraine are just beyond the capacity of Russia to achieve, even if they didn't resist. And that's even assuming they lose the war, which got a lot more likely, but still isn't a given. There just isn't the political will in Russia to commit to centuries of genocide against serious opposition, no matter how much Putin wants it to be true.
  
  That is how colonial genocide works.
  There were tens of millions in America that were almost completely exterminated (some estimates range up to 100 million)
  Yes, biological weapons help. And Russia has many weapons of mass destruction in their arsenal.
  
  We're just going to go in circles at this point, so I guess I'll just let Iraq, Afganistan, and Vietnam know they've been conquered and are part of the US now and resistance is futile. Or maybe only the US can fail? I'll let Afganistan know they're part of Russia instead then.
  Or maybe I should just stop trying to have a rational discussion with a troll and go to bed.
  
  This. Especially Ukraine won't just roll over anyway, they are still VERY aware of their suffering in the USSR and stuff like the Holodomor. The only thing that would happen is for Ukraine to become another country in a constant state of insurrection and civil war (I'm lacking the english vocabulary to properly describe it, but you get the point).
- What part of your country are you willing to give to Russia to keep the peace?
  And then repeat every few years until all of your country is russia
  Isn't peace grand?
- He's just bargaining. Internal preparations for the deal have already started. Such as taking Ukrainian oligarchs to court so they give up their mineral rights.

222 comments