....are you seriously claiming that a direct conflict with NATO forces on their borders, or within their occupied territories, wouldn't change Russia's strategic calculus in regards to the use of nuclear weapons?
Please, tell me what base of geopolitical knowledge, or Russian military doctrine, are you basing this on?
Because every white paper and analysis of Russian First Strike Doctrine that I've read, would seem to fly in the face of your claims. So... please put my mind at rest and show me the sources that I'm missing here.
What proof.. you don't have any proof either.. except for the statements by a regime that has been outright lying and bluffing this entire war. And was called on their bluf so many times we lost count.
There is no telling what a power mad dictator will do when threatened. And I agree their calculation on the use of nuclear weapons MIGHT change. But the counterweight to that is that many many more countries will isolate them and the question will be if this moves the needle in any discernible way towards actual use.
And countering my calling out your concern trolling with "no, you are" does not take away that you are here amplifying Kremlin talking points and trying to Stoke fear on the use of nuclear weapons (without actually saying nuclear) by the evil Z idiots.
Edit: jeez it seems the trolls of Lemmygrad are leaking again.
In this report, the author argues that the evidence Russia has lowered its threshold for nuclear use is far from convincing. Rather, Russia’s statements and behavior indicate more a desire to leverage its status as a nuclear power—less a lowering of the threshold than a reminder that escalation is possible and that Russia must therefore be taken seriously.
From your csis source
"There is also talk that Russia is working to develop low-yield nuclear weapons and/or modernizing its
nonstrategic nuclear weapons, perhaps with the intent of creating a class of nuclear weapons less
likely to draw a nuclear counterattack and are therefore more “usable.”
Also, as I've already written, I don't view flooding Ukraine with Western arms as a significant risk to the escalation ladder. That is not the case for force on force conflict with NATO, especially on Russia's doorstep. Which again, is laid out in their doctrine.
To clear, I just said to start with those links. You should definitely branch out and spend a lot more time reading up, because clearly you haven't yet.
Please, finish reading all those documents, and then read some more, and then show me all the white papers, academic articles, or think tank papers that support your position, or disprove mine.
Only time will tell, but so far the caution in escalation is serving the Russians well. And even though I don't expect NATO troops in any trenches, support roles can work. Training can also be done abroad where it is safer for all involved. There is just the logistics of moving many vs moving few.