Don't overstate 1.5 degrees C threat, new IPCC head says
Don't overstate 1.5 degrees C threat, new IPCC head says
Jim Skea, the new head of the UN's IPCC climate panel, said it was not helpful to imply that temperature increases of 1.5 degrees Celsius posed an existential threat to humanity.
In short, we aren't on track to an apocalyptic extinction, and the new head is concerned that rhetoric that we are is making people apathetic and paralyzes them from making beneficial actions.
He makes it clear too that this doesn't mean things are perfectly fine. The world is becoming and will be more dangerous with respect to climate. We're going to still have serious problems to deal with. The problems just aren't insurmountable and extinction level.
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Fair.
The point was not to imply that shipping is not a large source of CO2, but:
- More than once, I have seen it stated that a small number of cargo ships dwarfs the world's car fleet in terms of CO2 emission. This is wrong, and originates with abovementioned conflating of sulphur and carbon.
- At 3.9% of all GHG emissions, it is hardly correct to refer to shipping as one of the "biggest CO2 polluters".
- It's not low hanging fruit. Moving cargo by sea is really very efficient, and we're not going to reduce that carbon source by switching to other means of transport. The only way to reduce it is to move less stuff.
The reason so much stuff is shipped around the world is that it’s produced in low-income countries because it’s cheaper, not because it’s actually necessary to be produced there. Often, the raw materials come from somewhere else as well, so stuff is shipped around the world twice.
I dunno, maritime shipping producing more CO2 than California and Texas combined seems like a pretty big CO2 polluter to me, and we have to reduce where we can, ~4% is still a good start.
It actually is low hanging fruit. For 4000 years the human race engaged in maritime trade and commerce using solely wind powered vessels, and humanity thrived just fine without internal combustion engines. We could easily go back to clipper ships or design a wind-powered vessel based on shipping containers.
But efficiency will go down drastically! Transit times will increase massively! Yes, but these aren't existential threats. So people have to wait a bit longer to receive their shiny new laptops or Steam Decks, big deal. Maybe Norway won't have bananas anymore, not a big loss.
The real problem with climate change is that nobody wants to drastically inconvenience their modern lifestyle. Unfortunately, given the short window available to do something meaningful, drastic action is necessary which will result in large inconveniences and disruption for billions of people, but nobody wants that, and no politician will get elected selling that.
We could easily
I think you and I have different definitions of that word.
drastic action is necessary which will result in large inconveniences and disruption for billions of people, but nobody wants that, and no politician will get elected selling that.
Correct.
Perhaps we do. I meant "easily" in that the tech is already there, nothing needs to be invented. We could start building clipper ships again tomorrow, or design a clipper to hold TEUs. It's a much "easier" problem than converting all commercial lorries and personal autos to electric, across all countries, even 3rd world ones.
We could
Who's "we"? You're referring to some kind of collective humanity, but so such collective exists in the real world. There is no grand effort to work together to solve common problems.
You're ignoring the fact that sailing ships cannot compete with fossil power. Any problem becomes easy if you're willing to ignore reality.
If you mean "compete" in a capitalist sense, then you're right. But sailing ships absolutely "compete" in that they can move goods and products from one port to another using zero fossil fuels. That's not ignoring any reality, they actually do work and sail using the wind. Open any history book for proof if you don't believe me.
But as we're already aware, relying in any way on capitalism or its definitions is going to do the exact opposite of saving us from climate change.
I suggest you get to work on implementing your solution, then. It's very easy, after all. Let me know how it goes.
Have you been accused of glibness before in your life by friends, family, or co-workers?
Once or twice.
Look, I don't think we really disagree with each other. I think it would be great if we switched to sail-based shipping. But for that to be viable the masses would have to be OK with the results of that, as you laid out above.
I'm not hopeful that will happen, not until supply chains start breaking under the strain of climate change its consequences. By then, it may be too late to switch.
I agree entirely, which I guess brings both of us back to the original OP in that people succumb to apathy and helplessness when dealing with climate change. The great unwashed masses will never agree to policies which curtail their economic prosperity or inconvenience them, and capitalism will never agree to anything which halts its self-serving pursuit of profits. So it's Waterworld or bust, and I'll end up as that old dude inside the bowels of the oil tanker.