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Bulletins and News Discussion from May 12th to May 18th, 2025 - Nuclear War Averted (Hopefully)!

Image is from the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists' recent article on Kashmir.

It looks like the spat between India and Pakistan could be dying down, due to a new ceasefire. As of the time of me writing this paragraph, it seems both sides want to maintain it (despite some reports of violations here and there).

Both sides have declared victory, which is completely expected given their mutual political parties and nationalist histories. It's a little harder to say which side has actually won, as both sides seem to have managed to shoot down aircraft and hit military bases. India has, in my opinion, had the more embarrassing moments, but international conflicts aren't cringe compilations. I feel no good-will towards Pakistan's comprador government, but it is at least nice to see Modi knocked down a few pegs. Regardless of the final technical victor, it's obvious that - if the ceasefire is maintained - who won are the hundreds of millions of people who won't have to live in fear of dying in nuclear hellfire.

This conflict is a good example of what multipolarity will truly entail. Countries that have been previously limited in their nationalist ambitions by American pressure will now take opportunities to revolt, sometimes against America itself, and sometimes against other countries in their regional neighbourhood. It's also why, as communists, our goals do not stop at multipolarity; it is merely the establishing act of a new era of agitation against peripheral and semi-peripheral capitalist countries that are forming powerful national bourgeoisie classes as the international American capitalists are forced away.

Last week's thread is here. The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

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938 comments

  • Oh man exit polls in portugal showing the incumbent center-right winning, which isn't shocking, what is surprising is some of them show the center-left and far-right being neck in neck. Right-wing liberals in third place, then in fourth place the europhile pro-war greens, having succeeded in their mission of emptying out the far-left of its less radical voters by taking their program for itself while also presenting itself as safe and european.

    Communists could rise a little bit, though it's not looking likely that we'll regain our strongholds in the interior where anti-immigration sentiment has turned the region to the far-right and tactical "anti-fascist" voting leads people to vote for the center-left.

    And the Left Block, which just a few years ago was the 3rd most voted party, could end up being the least voted on the left. It's ironic, the europhile green party has done to the Left Block and it itself did to the communist party back in the early 2000s, it came in with a bunch of positive media coverage, an image of being fresh and unimpeded by historical debates (it's anti-ussr) and supported a similar program but less radical and so voters who used to vote for a party to their left (the communist party) shifted right to support the new one, now it happened to them and, again ironically, they could end up getting even less votes than the communists.

    I'll be happy if the communist party increases its vote share since that defeats the ever present media narrative that they're about to just poof disappear, especially in the context of having taken a strong anti-war position regarding ukraine, which made it pretty hard to publicly be a communist the past few years tbh, and it gives us a better base to keep growing.

    Though, all in all, pretty bad results for the left in general and only the pro-war greens will be heartily celebrating.

    These are just exit polls but if the results are confirmed then the governmental situation will stay as it was before the elections, there is no right wing majority without the far-right, and the center right still can't collaborate openly with the far right, so they'll have to depend on the center-left (who are currently being lead by a guy from the left-wing of the party) to pass laws, all the while the questions regarding the PM's personal business dealings are still in the air, though from the results it seems like people don't really care, and really the fact that people don't care that the PM might be corrupt will probably be the greatest factor of stability for this government to last.

    Also, of note: Higher turnout than last time, fair to say that maybe in portugal high turnout favours the far right since a lot of people who don't vote get activated by anti-immigration shit.

938 comments