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Bulletins and News Discussion from May 12th to May 18th, 2025 - Nuclear War Averted (Hopefully)!

Image is from the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists' recent article on Kashmir.

It looks like the spat between India and Pakistan could be dying down, due to a new ceasefire. As of the time of me writing this paragraph, it seems both sides want to maintain it (despite some reports of violations here and there).

Both sides have declared victory, which is completely expected given their mutual political parties and nationalist histories. It's a little harder to say which side has actually won, as both sides seem to have managed to shoot down aircraft and hit military bases. India has, in my opinion, had the more embarrassing moments, but international conflicts aren't cringe compilations. I feel no good-will towards Pakistan's comprador government, but it is at least nice to see Modi knocked down a few pegs. Regardless of the final technical victor, it's obvious that - if the ceasefire is maintained - who won are the hundreds of millions of people who won't have to live in fear of dying in nuclear hellfire.

This conflict is a good example of what multipolarity will truly entail. Countries that have been previously limited in their nationalist ambitions by American pressure will now take opportunities to revolt, sometimes against America itself, and sometimes against other countries in their regional neighbourhood. It's also why, as communists, our goals do not stop at multipolarity; it is merely the establishing act of a new era of agitation against peripheral and semi-peripheral capitalist countries that are forming powerful national bourgeoisie classes as the international American capitalists are forced away.

Last week's thread is here. The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

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939 comments

  • Hezbollah declares sweep in Baalbek municipal elections as alliance with Amal holds firm

    Hezbollah secured a decisive victory in the third round of Lebanon's municipal and mukhtar elections, with its "Development and Loyalty" lists winning all seats in Baalbek and across the Bekaa region.

    The results were announced by Hussein Al-Nemr, Hezbollah's official in the Bekaa region, who hailed the outcome as a reflection of strong grassroots support for the party's local governance strategy.

    Commenting on the results, MP Hussein Al-Hajj Hassan reaffirmed the strength of the alliance between Hezbollah and the Amal Movement, noting the consistency of their joint electoral performance.

    Al-Hajj Hassan dismissed the intentions of the rival list in Baalbek, stating that its goal was not development but rather political change.

    "The response came clearly through the ballot boxes," he said, underscoring the electorate's rejection of efforts to shift the city's political direction.

  • Oh no.

    Africa Muslims Agency had an advertisement to donate for Qurbani as Eid-al-Adha is about 3 weeks away and the programme didn't mention Palestine this time around, at least not directly. There is of course, many obstacles to get food into a city-state under the iron heel of the West, where the average person has less food in a month than a typical South African has in a day.

    So a major South African humanitarian aid group is now totally shut off too.

    Death to piSSrael, may the Nazi colony never know peace

  • Oh man exit polls in portugal showing the incumbent center-right winning, which isn't shocking, what is surprising is some of them show the center-left and far-right being neck in neck. Right-wing liberals in third place, then in fourth place the europhile pro-war greens, having succeeded in their mission of emptying out the far-left of its less radical voters by taking their program for itself while also presenting itself as safe and european.

    Communists could rise a little bit, though it's not looking likely that we'll regain our strongholds in the interior where anti-immigration sentiment has turned the region to the far-right and tactical "anti-fascist" voting leads people to vote for the center-left.

    And the Left Block, which just a few years ago was the 3rd most voted party, could end up being the least voted on the left. It's ironic, the europhile green party has done to the Left Block and it itself did to the communist party back in the early 2000s, it came in with a bunch of positive media coverage, an image of being fresh and unimpeded by historical debates (it's anti-ussr) and supported a similar program but less radical and so voters who used to vote for a party to their left (the communist party) shifted right to support the new one, now it happened to them and, again ironically, they could end up getting even less votes than the communists.

    I'll be happy if the communist party increases its vote share since that defeats the ever present media narrative that they're about to just poof disappear, especially in the context of having taken a strong anti-war position regarding ukraine, which made it pretty hard to publicly be a communist the past few years tbh, and it gives us a better base to keep growing.

    Though, all in all, pretty bad results for the left in general and only the pro-war greens will be heartily celebrating.

    These are just exit polls but if the results are confirmed then the governmental situation will stay as it was before the elections, there is no right wing majority without the far-right, and the center right still can't collaborate openly with the far right, so they'll have to depend on the center-left (who are currently being lead by a guy from the left-wing of the party) to pass laws, all the while the questions regarding the PM's personal business dealings are still in the air, though from the results it seems like people don't really care, and really the fact that people don't care that the PM might be corrupt will probably be the greatest factor of stability for this government to last.

    Also, of note: Higher turnout than last time, fair to say that maybe in portugal high turnout favours the far right since a lot of people who don't vote get activated by anti-immigration shit.

  • I don't understand why any of these countries shedding crocodile tears for Palestinians are even pretending to care. What would they even lose by fully and publicly committing themselves to Israel's genocide?

    Fucking hell all of Israel's allies (like, 99% of the world) might as well drop all pretenses and self-annex themselves into Greater Israel.

    Here's an extremely black-pilled take:

  • Yemen launched another ballistic missile (Likely Fattah-1) at Israel's Ben Gurion airport. The missile was intercepted by what appears to be the Arrow 2 system in the terminal phase, which means it evaded the Arrow 3 midcourse interception system, and either evaded the THAAD system or flew under it's altitude floor (THAAD can only engage targets at altitudes above 40km, Arrow 2 is responsible for interceptions between 8-50km altitude).

    Twitter link for video source

    Xcancel mirror

    What's happening in the video is that Arrow 2 uses both a kinetic hit to kill interception, as well as a blast fragmentation warhead to intercept ballistic missiles. The kill vehicle of Arrow 2 is designed to achieve a hit-to-kill interception, but simultaneously the kill vehicle will also direct warhead fragments at the target shortly before reaching the closest point to the target, once the proximity fuze sets off, in case a hit to kill interception is not achieved. The high explosive directed blast fragmentation warhead is capable of destroying a target within a 40–50 m (130–160 ft) radius.

    Here, the kinetic interception was achieved and successful (the two objects impacting each other), but the directed blast fragmentation cloud completely missed the missile (the explosion in the video that takes place just before the kill vehicle and missile impact each other). This is why kinetic hit to ki intercept is an important capability for anti ballistic missile defence systems. If Arrow 2 relied purely on blast fragmentation, the intercept would've missed completely due to the Fattah-1s maneuverability and speed in the terminal phase.

  • Hussein Odeh, Palestine’s bodybuilding champion. At the start of the war, Israeli occupation forces destroyed his home and the gym he had built. Today, he went out to find a car to evacuate his family from Jabalia refugee camp. When he returned, he found no home, no children—Israeli warplanes had bombed the house and killed his entire family.

    Palestinian journalist in Gaza, Yusuf Fares (wearing press jacket in above photos) wrote on FB:

    To start again from zero, Hussein… I remember the look in your eyes that day—it spoke of how cruel it is to lose your home, your life’s work—the gym your self-made father poured his life savings into—and your dearest daughter, Iman, all at once. That was at the beginning of last year. Back then, little Khaled was the only sweetness left in a bitter life. He kept running into the camera frame, ruining the shot twenty times, and we laughed. He promised he’d rebuild everything for you—the gym, the house—make it all as if the war had never happened. He challenged me to an arm wrestling match and beat me with that sweet spirit of his.

    All of that could somehow be endured. But to lose the very zero you were rebuilding from… to have your entire family killed while you were out trying to find a car to evacuate them—that is where the story ends before it can ever be told. That is where silence becomes deeper than words, where hope grows old and withers. I don’t know, dear friend, what could possibly soothe your shattered heart. I don’t know if writing still holds any meaning in the face of such overwhelming grief.

    لا حول ولا قوة الا بالله.

    (Source)

  • The 2025 'Democracy Perception Index' survey reveals that, for the first time, global perceptions of China are more positive than those of the United States. Both Russia and China's global reputations have improved since 2022, while the U.S. has experienced a sharp decline since 2023.

    Additionally, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin seem to be more popular globally than Donald Trump, whom over half of the world views negatively. According to the same survey, Israel is regarded as the most disliked country in the world.

    • Telegram

  • After several months of deployment, the USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier, currently positioned near Yemen for operations against the Houthis, is leaving the Middle East, and there are no plans to replace it – U.S. officials to Al Jazeera

    • Telegram

  • Just went over the photos of the debris of the missile that Yemen fired at Israel a few days ago, and it appears that instead of using the Palestine-2 missile (a Fattah/Kheibar Shekan variant that has been in use for some time), it now appears that Ansarallah/the Houthis in Yemen now have the Fattah-1 proper. The debris on the ground in Israel is an exact match of the Fattah-1, all screws and rivet holes match up exactly. The Fattah-1 is Iran's most advanced missile, so Iran is definitely increasing its support of Ansarallah. I'll post some pictures below showing this, as well as the original pictures for anyone who wants to do a better Photoshop job. There are even more similarities that I haven't highlighted, but that's because I have poor Photoshop skills.

    Original pictures:

    Intact Fattah 1:

    Debris in Israel:

    Also don't expect posts for a few days, I've been locked out of some accounts and lost a ton of sources, and I think I've been IP/device fingerprint banned from twitter, also called X nowadays. If it's a device fingerprint ban, I don't think that even a VPN will help me. It'll take a while to recover, however the sources are all public accounts mainly on twitter, albeit low follower obscure ones. If anyone on here still has a Twitter account (yeah I know it's a terrible website run by Musk, but unfortunately a lot of information is on there, I got the original images from twitter for example), feel free to send a private message if you want access to the sources or help in the recovery process.

    Nevermind, twitter finally loaded for the first time in 10+ hours, and forced me to complete an extremely long 10 part capcha to prove I'm not a bot and remove my IP/device fingerprint ban. Still lost the original account, but I can create a new one at least.

  • What DeepSeek provided as a response when I described the current situation in Gaza and asked for a critical analysis of China’s stance on the situation within a socialist anti-imperialist framework.

  • What will Hamas be receiving in return for listenening to its Qatari comprador allies and releasing Edam Alexander without any actual concrete concessions up front? Per DropSite News, a one way trip to America's premier slave market:

    BREAKING: The Trump administration is working on a plan to permanently relocate up to 1 million Palestinians from the Gaza Strip to Libya, according to a report by NBC News, citing five sources with knowledge of the effort, including two people they said with direct knowledge, and a former U.S. official.

    Key Details:

    ➤ The plan is being seriously considered and has been discussed with Libyan leadership. In exchange, the U.S. would potentially unfreeze billions of dollars in Libyan assets.

    ➤ Israel is aware of the discussions. Senior Hamas official, Dr. Basem Naim, said that Hamas was not aware of any discussions. No final agreement has been reached, NBC reports and the State Department and National Security Council declined comment.

    ➤ Libya, still divided between rival governments, is struggling with war and instability. The U.S. currently warns against travel due to “crime, terrorism, kidnapping, and armed conflict.”

    ➤ Plans include possible financial incentives like free housing or stipends to encourage voluntary departure—but it’s unclear how many Palestinians would agree.

    ➤ Transport options being considered include airlifts, sea routes, and land convoys, all of which pose major logistical hurdles. Gaza lacks an airport, and Israel may not permit overland travel to Egypt.

    ➤ The U.S. has also reportedly considered Syria under its new post-Assad leadership as a potential resettlement site.

    ➤ Trump previously said Palestinians would need to be relocated so the U.S. could “take over” and rebuild Gaza as a “Riviera of the Middle East.” He added: “I don’t think people should be going back to Gaza.”

    ➤ The proposal for ethnically cleansing Gaza has faced intense pushback from Arab allies and members of Congress.

    https://x.com/DropSiteNews/status/1923479173903024601

    https://xcancel.com/DropSiteNews/status/1923479173903024601

    Also, with regards to:

    The proposal for ethnically cleansing Gaza has faced intense pushback from Arab allies

    Who do I need to speak to about getting a modified version of

    but with MBS' head photoshopped on?

  • Israeli media is reporting that the first phase of "Operations Gideon's Chariots", the Israeli plan to militarily occupy the entire Gaza strip (yes, the entire territory of Gaza), has already begun, and will continue in the coming days if no ceasefire is reached with Hamas during negotiations in Doha.

    This is extremely bleak...

  • Update on the United States Air Force Strategic Bomber Task Force deployments: A further 3 B-2A Spirit stealth bombers have headed back to the United States, following the bilateral ceasefire between the USA and Yemen, which excludes Israel. There are no more B-2s currently forward deployed. However, a squadron of at least 4 F-15E Strike Eagles has been deployed to Diego Garcia, and more are on their way at this time. Although they are not strategic bombers, 1 F-15E can carry 5 JASSM stealth cruise missiles, allowing for a squadron of 4 F-15Es to replicate the role of 1 B-52. F-15Es can also act as combat air patrol aircraft to protect the island from any surface or aerial threats (boats and UAVs). This leaves 4 B-52s at Diego Garcia, and at least four F-15Es. The F-15s are a noticable deployment, with the dual capability of carrying out strikes and defending the island.

    F-15s deploy to Diego Garcia

    There are now a total of 8 United States Air Force Strategic Bombers forward deployed, along with at least 4 F-15Es:

    Stationed at Diego Garcia:

    • 4x B-52H Stratofortress bombers.
    • 4x F-15E Strike Eagle aircraft at least, equipped with 5 JASSMs in this picture (1 on each wing, 1 on each aft station, and one barely visible on the centerline of the aircraft).
      Stationed in Japan:
    • 4x B-1B Lancer supersonic swing wing bombers.

    This means that the maximum JASSM conventional cruise missile salvo per sortie from bombers and strike fighters deployed at Diego Garcia is now 100 JASSMs, and the maximum AGM-86 nuclear cruise missile salvo remains at 80 missiles.

    The maximum JASSM or LRASM (anti ship version of JASSM) conventional cruise missile salvo per sortie from bombers deployed at Japan remains at 96 missiles.

  • Unfortunately I must make one of these posts again.

    Israeli airstrikes have restated on Yemen, following the launch of multiple ballistic missiles from Yemen towards Israel over the past week. So far, there have been multiple airstrikes on two ports: Hodeidah and Al-Salif. Israel says 10 aircraft and dozens of bombs were used for these strikes, and that they'll attempt to assassinate Abdul Malik Al-Houthi (the leader of the Ansarallah/Houthi movement) if ballistic missile attacks on Israel continue.

    Again, it must be noted that the type of airstrikes Israel are likely carrying out now (stand in bombings with 4th generation non stealth aircraft) would not be possible without the actions of the US Navy and Air Force beforehand during their 50+ day campaign. My thoughts on the situation and the US - Yemen seperate bilateral ceasefire.

    This image has been shared many times already, including by western aligned accounts, so it's not hidden information:

    Warning for potential graphic imagery during ongoing airstrikes:

    Al Masirah TV twitter

    Xcancel mirror

  • In The Netherlands the tide regarding Palestine is changing a bit (slowly though). Several cities are calling the genocide by its name and pressuring the government to stop supporting Israel. Also in a few cities student encampments have been set up again and this time more universities didn’t react by immediately calling the cops and are actually doing tiny concessions. The concessions are obviously not enough and purely symbolic but it’s a noticeable difference compared to last year where they didn’t engage in any conversation and implied that the protests are purely antisemitic.

939 comments